Rising Instability, Falling Production
BMI View : Worsening instability will continue to undermine the recovery in Libyan oil output, whilst export volumes will remain critically low. However, ample global supply and weak demand will see the impact on Brent limited over the shorter term.
The deteriorating security environment in Libya supports our 2014 forecast for Libyan oil production. We argued that the recovery in output in the second half of this year would be volatile and weak, despite the return of production from El Sharara and the release of key eastern ports (see 'Production Rising But Risks Remain', July 10 2014). We forecast output for 2014 at 350,000 barrels per day (b/d), up from an estimated average of around 300,000b/d in the first two quarters.
Instability Threatening Output
|Libya Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports (000b/d)|