Running Out Of Time To Avoid Political Crisis
BMI View: While the appointment of a provisional election council in Haiti moves the country closer to holding its long-delayed legislative election, a number of obstacles remain. Should the country fail to hold the election before the expiration of the current legislative term, we believe this would present substantial risks to both the political and economic stability of the country.
We maintain a cautious stance on Haiti's political risk outlook, noting that further setbacks to the long-delayed legislative elections could have substantial negative ramifications on the stability of the country's governing institutions. There have been some positive signs recently, with President Michael Martelly announcing both the completion of the nine-member Conseil Electoral Provisoire (CEP) and the date for the election (October 26). However, while this is an important step in paving the way for the vote to take place, there are still a number of obstacles which could stall the electoral process, not least the current gridlock between the executive and opposition-led Senate on passing the election law. Should this delay the vote into next year, it would present significant downside risk to both the country's political and economic stability.
A Step Forward, But Election Not Assured
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