Track Record: Commodities 2013 Retrospective
At the beginning of 2013, we laid out our key commodities themes and price forecasts for the year ( see 'Key Themes For 2013: Commodities', December 17 2012). Our price forecasts were more accurate than Bloomberg consensus, particularly for industrial commodities. The key themes we laid out also performed well, recording four 'hits' and one 'miss'.
Price Forecasts - Ahead Of The Curve
One way to assess the accuracy of our forecasts is to focus on the 2013 average price forecasts we laid out on January 1 2013. Of course shifting fundamentals over the course of the year due to events such as macroeconomic surprises or adverse weather conditions mean that most January forecasts end up being too bullish or bearish. Nonetheless, by comparing the degree of error with Bloomberg consensus, it is possible to partially illustrate the value of our price forecasts.
|Consensus Generally Moved Our Way|
|2013 Average Price Forecast As Of January 1 2013, % Difference From Eventual Year Average|