Turkmenistan


BMI View: We forecast Turkmen consumer price inflation to average 7.0% in 2012 and 6.3% in 2013, down from an estimated 7.0% in 2011. Economic growth will ease this year, to 8.0% by our forecasts from an estimated 11.4% in 2011 as external demand wanes easing demand-pull inflationary pressures. However, the food price inflation picture is becoming increasingly grim, and will likely push up food price inflation. Domestic grain production has undershot targets owing to a poor planting season and exceptionally dry weather. Meanwhile, global food prices have trended higher as various supply-side constraints have coalesced. We expect these dynamics to keep inflation well supported this year.

2010 2011 Latest Period 2012 2013
Notes: e BMI estimates. f BMI forecasts. Sources: 1 World Bank/UN/BMI; 2 EBRD/IMF WEO/BMI; 3 BMI/EBRD; 4 IMF/BMI; 5 EBRD/BMI.
Population, mn 1 5.0 5.1 - - 5.2 f 5.2 f
Nominal GDP, US$bn 2 19.9 23.5 e - - 27.2 f 31.3 f
Real GDP growth, % change y-o-y 2 11.0 10.4 e - - 8.5 f 8.0 f
Industrial production index, % y-o-y, ave 3 6.5 7.2 e - - 8.5 f 8.8 f
Budget balance, % of GDP 2 2.8 3.0 e - - 3.5 f 3.2 f
Consumer prices, % y-o-y, eop 4 4.8 7.5 e - - 7.0 f 6.3 f
Exchange rate TMM/US$, eop 4 2.85 2.85 2.85 15-Aug 2.85 f 2.85 f
Goods imports, US$bn 5 7.7 8.6 e - - 9.5 f 10.5 f
Goods exports, US$bn 5 17.4 19.1 e - - 20.9 f 22.7 f
Balance of trade in goods, US$bn 5 9.7 10.5 e - - 11.3 f 12.2 f
Current account, US$bn 5 5.8 6.4 e - - 6.8 f 7.3 f
Current account, % of GDP 5 29.1 27.3 e - - 25.0 f 23.4 f
Foreign reserves ex gold, US$bn 5 12.5 14.4 e - - 16.5 f 18.2 f
Total external debt stock, US$mn 5 1,229.6 1,451.0 e - - 1,625.1 f 1,755.1 f
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 5 6.2 6.2 e - - 6.0 f 5.6 f
This article is tagged to:
Sector: Country Risk
Geography: Turkmenistan, Turkmenistan

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