|
||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||
BMI's Executive Summary[TOP] The Sector At A Glance Key Insights On The Oil & Gas Sector Of Angola The latest Angola Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.9% of MEA regional oil demand by 2010, while providing 5.4% of supply thanks to rapid growth in deepwater production. MEA regional oil demand rose to 10.7mn b/d last year and should average 10.9mn b/d in 2006, before reaching 12.2mn b/d by 2010. MEA gas consumption in 2005 was 343bcm, with demand of 533bcm targeted for 2010. Production last year of 448bcm should reach 774bcm by the end of the decade. Angola's share of consumption in 2005 was 0.6%, while its share of production was just 0.5%. By 2010, its share of demand is forecast to be 1.1%, with the country accounting for 1.6% of supply. Assuming an uneventful Q4, we are now predicting an OPEC basket price for 2006 averaging US$61.10/bbl – an increase of US$1.10 from our June forecast. This also represents a 19% rise from the FY05 average. Our forecasts for the US, Brent and Urals are US$66.40, US$65.40 and US$61.60/bbl respectively. For 2007, we continue to assume an OPEC basket price of US$50/bbl, which implies US$55.40 for the US, US$53.40 for Brent and US$49.50 for Urals. Prices are then forecast to fall by around US$5/bbl in 2008-2010, with the OPEC price averaging US$45/bbl over the period. Angolan real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 27.5% for 2006, following 20.0% in 2005. We are assuming 20.0% growth in 2007. Dramatic economic growth is matched by spectacular oil demand growth, albeit from a low base. Consumption is set to rise from an estimated 53,000b/d last year to 107,000b/d by 2010. State oil company Sonangol operates in partnership various IOCs and now accounts for less than 40% of the country's oil output. Thanks largely to IOC investment, oil output is forecast to increase from 1.24mn b/d in 2005 to 2.10mn b/d in 2010, with exports heading towards 2.0mn b/d. Only severe project slippage, brought about by tightness in the oil services segment, seems capable of weakening the volume growth trend. Gas production of just 1.5bcm last year should reach 12bcm by 2010. Consumption is expected to rise to 5bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing exports of 7bcm. In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Angola this quarter receives a slightly lower composite score of 34 points and has now dropped from equal fifth to outright sixth place in the regional league table. The country’s overall business environment can be considered fairly attractive in a regional context, thanks largely to the unrivalled oil and gas growth potential, its effective licensing regime and a benign competitive landscape. While Angola’s reserves-to-production ratio appears low, there is a lot of unexploited hydrocarbons potential in the country. |
||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||
Contents[TOP] Chapter 1 - Executive SummaryChapter 2 - Regional Market OverviewMiddle East/Africa Region Table: MEA Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Middle East/Africa Oil Production (000b/d) Table: Middle East/Africa Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Table: Middle East/Africa Gas Consumption (bcm) Table: Middle East/Africa Gas Production (bcm) Table: Middle East/Africa LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) Angola Chapter 3 - Business Environment RankingsAngola Middle East/Africa Region Chapter 4 - Angola Business Environment RankingEconomics – Long-term risk Politics – Long-term risk Oil & Gas Growth Oil/Gas Reserves Licensing/Regulation Competitive Environment Political Risk Summary Economic Risk Summary Business Environment Risk Summary Chapter 5 - Oil Market OutlookTable Crude Price Forecasts 2006 Revised Forecasts Table: Oil Price Forecasts Chapter 6 - Regional Supply and DemandMiddle East/Africa Table: Middle East/Africa Oil Production (000b/d) Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Middle East/Africa Chapter 7 - Global PictureTable: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) Chapter 8 - Industry Forecast ScenarioOil and Gas Reserves Oil Supply and Demand Gas Supply and Demand LNG Refining and Oil Products Trade Revenues/Import Costs Table: Angola Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts Other Energy Table: Angola Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario Chapter 9 - Country Snapshot: Angola Demographic DataSection 1: Population: Table: Demographic Indicators (2005) Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown Section 2: Education & Healthcare Table: Education Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics Table: Healthcare: Expenditure Chapter 10 - Regional Case StudyGlobal Player With Conflicting Domestic Needs Chapter 11 - Competitive LandscapeExecutive Summary Table: Key Players – Angolan Oil & Gas Sector Overview/State Role Chevron – Summary ExxonMobil – Summary Table: Key Upstream Players Total – Summary BP – Summary Eni – Summary Table: Key Downstream Players Statoil – Summary Norsk Hydro – Summary Petrobras – Summary Devon – Summary Chapter 12 - Company MonitorSociedade Nacional de Combustíveis de Angola (Sonangol) Chevron Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Esso Exploration Angola Company Analysis SWOT Analysis BP Angola Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Total Exploration Angola Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Eni Angola Production Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Chapter 13 - BMI Forecast ModellingHow we generate our industry forecasts Energy Industry Cross checks Sources Chapter 14 - Appendix: Regional Demographic DataThe Long View: Data Over The Economic Cycle (2000-2007) Population Household Spending Per Capita, US$ Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP Market Size, GDP, US$bn
|
||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||
Network of Middle Eastern and African Oil and Gas Sources[TOP] BMI's Middle Eastern and African Oil and Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil and gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: |
||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||