Argentina Oil & Gas Report
Was: $1030.00
Now: $875.00
You save: $155.00 (15%)
Argentina Oil & Gas Report

The Argentina Oil & Gas Report

The Argentina Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Argentina to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Argentina, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Argentina.

Business Monitor International's Argentina Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentinian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits of Report

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.

Oil Market Outlook

BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.

BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast

Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast

BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape & Rankings

Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles & SWOTS

Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

Argentina Oil & Gas Report
Was: $1030.00
Now: $875.00
You save: $155.00 (15%)
Table of Contents

Chapter - Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis
Argentina Political SWOT
Argentina Economic SWOT
Argentina Business Environment SWOT

Chapter - Argentina Energy Market Overview

Global Oil Market Outlook
Storing Up Trouble
Revised Forecasts

Chapter - Global Oil Market Review

One-Way Traffic
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
12-Month Demand Outlook
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
12-Month Supply Outlook
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009
Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook

Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)

Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review

Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Latin America LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)

Chapter - Business Environment Ranking

Latin America Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Downstream Scores
Argentina Upstream Rating – Overview
Argentina Upstream Rating – Potential Returns
Argentina Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns
Argentina Downstream Rating – Overview
Argentina Downstream Rating – Potential Returns

Chapter - Business Environment

Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime

Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario

Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Argentina Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Argentina Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Long-term Oil & Gas Forecasts

Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Argentina - Economic Activity

Chapter - Competitive Landscape

Executive Summary

Table: Key Players – Argentine Oil & Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players

Chapter - Company Monitor

Repsol YPF
Petrobras Energía
Chevron Argentina
Pan American Energy/BP
Total Austral
Esso Petrolera Argentina
Shell Compañia Argentina de Petróleo
BG Group
Occidental – Summary
Apache – Summary
Otto Energy – Summary
Others– Summary

Chapter - Glossary of Terms

Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology

Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts

Global Oil Demand
Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Global Oil Supply
Global Gas Demand
Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm)
Global Gas Supply
Table: Global Gas Production (bcm)
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm)
Argentina Country Overview
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
Argentina Oil & Gas Report
Was: $1030.00
Now: $875.00
You save: $155.00 (15%)
Executive Summary

The latest Argentina Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 6.22% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 6.72% of supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.66mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 7.72mn b/d in 2008. It should average 7.86mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 8.58mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was just under 10.40mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 9.99mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.78mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are slipping, because demand growth is exceeding the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.73mn b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 2.27mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to be 2.21mn b/d in 2013.

In terms of natural gas, the Latin America region in 2008 consumed an estimated 194bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 266bcm targeted for 2013, representing 45% growth. Estimated production of 208bcm in 2008 should reach 294bcm in 2013, and implies 28bcm of net exports the end of the period. Argentina’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 23.47%, while its share of production was 21.59%. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.89%, with the country accounting for 16.33% of supply.

In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53/bbl, down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08 per barrel (bbl), representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06/bbl, US$99.33/bbl and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (- 45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00/bbl. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65/bbl, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.

In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.

Argentina’s real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 0.6% for 2009, down from an estimated 6% in 2008. We are assuming 0.9% growth in 2010, 1.2% in 2011, 1.8% in 2012, followed by 2% in 2013. State entity Enarsa partners international oil companies (IOCs) in supporting output growth efforts, operating alongside regional heavyweight Repsol YPF and others. We are assuming oil production of no more than 725,000b/d by 2013, with the country expected to pump 735,000b/d in 2009. Consumption is forecast to increase by 1.5% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 533,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The crude oil export capability would therefore be approximately 192,000b/d by 2013. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 45bcm in 2008 to 48bcm over the period, resulting in the need for 5bcm of net imports by 2013.

Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in Argentine oil production of 6.1%, with crude volumes peaking in 2010 at 740,000b/d, before falling steadily to 655,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 15.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 1.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 566,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from around 45bcm in 2008 to a peak of 49bcm in 2012, before slipping back to 37bcm by 2018. With demand growth of 33%, this provides a need for net imports rising from less than 1bcm in 2008-2010 to 27bcm by 2018. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.

Argentina now occupies sixth place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, having fallen behind Trinidad & Tobago. Its gas resources, largely privatised oil sector, licensing regime and competitive landscape work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by an absence of growth potential, asset maturity and unappealing risk environment. Limited scope exists for Argentina to mount a fresh attack on Trinidad, but it should be safe from Ecuador below. The country is well up the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its privatised refining and marketing segment, substantial capacity and competitive environment, offset by only moderate growth potential and a relatively high level of retail site intensity. Trinidad shares third place with Argentina in the regional rankings. There is little to choose between the two countries and Argentina is not at great risk of being overhauled during the next few quarters.

Argentina Oil & Gas Report
Was: $1030.00
Now: $875.00
You save: $155.00 (15%)
Read about our other Oil & Gas Reports

Africa

Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan

Asia

Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam

Caribbean

Trinidad & Tobago

Europe

Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom

Latin America

Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela

Middle East

Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates

North America

Canada and United States
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