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BMI's Executive Summary[TOP]
The latest Argentina Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 6.06% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2011, while providing 6.33% of supply. Latin America regional oil demand rose to an estimated 6.87mn barrels per day (b/d) last year. It should average 7.01mn b/d in 2007 and then rise to around 7.82mn b/d by 2011. Regional oil production was last year estimated at 10.97mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.85mn b/d by 2011. In terms of natural gas, the region last year consumed an estimated 183bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 271bcm targeted for 2011, representing 48% growth. Production of an estimated 191bcm in 2006 should reach 272bcm in 2011, and implies just 2bcm of net exports the end of the period. Argentina's share of gas consumption in 2006 was an estimated 22.95%, while its share of production was 24.08%. By 2011, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.93%, with the country accounting for 18.38% of supply. For the whole of last year, our estimates of average crude oil prices are US$61.10 for the OPEC basket, US$65.10 for Brent, US$66.20/bbl for WTI and US$61.30 for Urals. For the first quarter of this year, we have adjusted our forecasts to reflect the weather-induced volatility. The OPEC basket is now expected to have averaged US$54.30/bbl, with Brent at US$57.60; WTI averaging US$58.70 and Urals at US$54.00/bbl. Our projections for 2007 as a whole are barely changed from the last quarterly report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$55 per barrel. Based on last year's typical price differentials, this implies Brent at US$58.80, WTI averaging US$59.90/bbl, and Urals at US$55.30/bbl. Argentinean real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 5.8% for 2007, down from an estimated 8.5% in 2006. We are assuming 3.1% growth in 2008, 3.3% in 2009, followed by 3.6% in 2010 and 3.5% in 2011. A new state entity is now partnering international oil companies (IOCs) in supporting output growth efforts, operating alongside regional heavyweight RepsolYPF and established foreign producers. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 750,000b/d by 2011, with the country expected to pump 765,000b/d this year. Consumption is forecast to increase by around 2% per annum to 2011, implying demand of 474,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The export capability would therefore be approximately 276,000b/d by 2011. Gas production is forecast to increase from last year's estimated 46bcm to 50bcm over the period, with net imports required from 2009. In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Argentina receives a slightly lower composite score of 27, which now ranks the country sixth out of nine states included in the Latin America region. The overall business environment can be considered slightly unattractive in a regional context, thanks largely to below-average hydrocarbons growth potential and reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) offsetting respectable scores for political risk, competitive environment and licensing framework. Argentina is no longer a high priority for IOC investment, thanks to limited potential and recent government intervention in energy pricing. |
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Contents[TOP] Chapter 1 - Executive BriefChapter 2 - SWOT AnalysisArgentina Political SWOT Argentina Economic SWOT Argentina Business Environment SWOT Chapter 3 - Regional Market OverviewLatin America Region Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm) Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) Table: Latin America LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) Argentina Chapter 4 - Business Environment RankingsArgentina Latin America Region Chapter 5 - Argentina Business Environment RankingEconomics – Long-Term Risk Politics – Long-Term Risk Oil & Gas Growth Oil/Gas Reserves Licensing/Regulation Competitive Environment Chapter 6 - Business Environment OverviewPolitical Risk Summary Economic Risk Summary Business Environment Risk Summary Legal Code/Red Tape Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Tax Regime Chapter 7 - Oil Market OutlookTable: Crude Price Forecasts 2006 Revised Forecasts Table: Oil Price Forecasts Chapter 8 - Regional Supply and DemandLatin America Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Latin America Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Latin America Chapter 9 - Global PictureTable: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) Chapter 10 - Industry Forecast ScenarioOil and Gas Reserves Oil Supply and Demand Gas Supply and Demand Refining and Oil Products Trade Revenues/Import Costs Table: Argentina Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts Other Energy Table: Argentina Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario Chapter 11 - Economic OutlookTable: Economic Activity - Historical Data And Forecasts Chapter 12 - Regional Case StudyInvestment Needed To Fulfil Venezuelan Potential Strategic Vision Export Commitments Regional Position Chapter 13 - Competitive LandscapeExecutive Summary Table: Key Players – Argentine Oil & Gas Sector Overview/State Role RepsolYPF – Summary Petrobras – Summary Table: Key Upstream Players Chevron – Summary ExxonMobil – Summary Shell – Summary BP – Summary Table: Key Downstream Players Total – Summary BG – Summary Vintage – Summary Apache – Summary Chapter 14 - Company MonitorRepsolYPF Petrobras Energía Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Chevron Argentina Company Analysis Pan American Energy/BP Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Total Austral Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Esso Petrolera Argentina Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Shell Compañia Argentina de Petróleo Company Analysis SWOT Analysis BG Group Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Chapter 15 - BMI Forecast ModellingHow We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Energy Industry Cross checks Sources Chapter 16 - Appendix: Regional Demographic DataWages (ave per annum), US$ Population Household Spending Per Capita, US$ Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP Market Size, GDP, US$bn
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Network of Latin American Oil & Gas Sources[TOP] BMI's Latin American Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil & gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: |
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