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Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Azerbaijan .
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Azerbaijan ’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Azerbaijani oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Azerbaijan .
The Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Azerbaijan to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Azerbaijan , refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Azerbaijan .
Business Monitor International's Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Azerbaijani oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Azerbaijan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Azerbaijani oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Azerbaijani Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Azerbaijan .
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Azerbaijani Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Azerbaijan .
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| Azerbaijan Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Energy Market Overview |
| Oil Supply & Demand |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply & Demand |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Central/Eastern Europe Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| Azerbaijan Upstream Rating – Overview |
| Azerbaijan Upstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Azerbaijan Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns |
| Azerbaijan Downstream Rating – Overview |
| Azerbaijan Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Azerbaijan Downstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns |
Chapter - Business Environment |
| Legal Framework |
| Infrastructure |
| Labour Force |
| Foreign Investment Policy |
| Tax Regime |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil & Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply & Demand |
| Gas Supply & Demand |
| Refining & Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Azerbaijan Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Azerbaijan Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Economic Outlook |
| Table: Azerbaijan – Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
| Table: Key Domestic & Foreign Companies |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Downstream Player |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| Socar |
| BP Azerbaijan |
| StatoilHydro |
| Lukoil Azerbaijan |
| ExxonMobil – Summary |
| Devon Energy – Summary |
| Eni – Summary |
| Inpex – Summary |
| Chevron – Summary |
| Itochu/Delta Hess – Summary |
| TPAO – Summary |
| Total – Summary |
| OVL – Summary |
| KNOC – Summary |
| GDF Suez – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm) |
| Azerbaijan Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How we generate our industry forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
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Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The latest Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.23% of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 9.69% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.36mn b/d in 2008. It should average 5.42mn b/d in 2008 and then rise to around 5.99mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 8.83mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 13.00mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.44mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.18mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.64mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 8.45mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 637bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 749bcm targeted for 2013, representing 17.5% growth. Production of an estimated 783bcm in 2008 should reach 913bcm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from around 145bcm in 2008 to 164bcm by the end of the period. Azerbaijan’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 1.57%, while its share of production is put at 1.92%. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 1.96%, with the country accounting for 2.41% of supply.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06/bbl, US$99.33/bbl and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00/bbl. The new full-year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65/bbl, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48/bbl for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90/bbl in January to a high of US$64.90/bbl reached in August and in December, providing a full-year average of US$56.20/bbl – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90/bbl in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
Azeri real GDP growth is estimated by BMI at 3.8% for 2009, following an estimated 11.8% in 2008. We are assuming 5.9% growth in 2010, 6.9% in 2011, followed by 7.6% in 2012, and 7.2% in 2013. Domestic oil consumption, having tumbled since the 1990s, should now have resumed a growth tack, estimated at an average 7% per annum. By 2013, the country could be using 134,000b/d of oil. The main government vehicle, Socar, currently accounts for almost half of domestic oil production but, in partnership with international oil companies (IOCs), should raise national output from an estimated 925,000b/d in 2008 to 1.40mn b/d by 2012-2013. Gas output should increase from an estimated 15bcm in 2008 to 22.0bcm during the forecast period.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Azeri oil and gas liquids production of 38.3%, with volumes reaching a plateau of 1.4mn b/d in 2012-2014, before falling to 1.2mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 101.6%, with growth slowing to an assumed 7.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 188,000b/d by 2018. Gas production should rise from the estimated 2008 level of 15bcm to 22bcm by 2018, providing export potential increasing to at least 7bcm. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Azerbaijan continues to occupy second place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, behind neighbour Kazakhstan. Its oil and gas production growth outlook, asset immaturity, high reservesto- production ratios (RPR) and competitive landscape work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by a relatively unappealing risk environment. The country is above the mid-point of the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, with some high scores but progress further up the rankings somewhat unlikely. The low level of retail site intensity represents a strong suit, along with region-leading oil demand growth prospects. Kazakhstan is four points behind it in the regional rankings, and there is some long-term chance of the rival Caspian state challenging for Azerbaijan’s fifth place.
|
Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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