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Bahrain Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Bahrain Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Bahrain.
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Bahrain’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Bahraini oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Bahrain.
The Bahrain Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Bahrain to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Bahrain, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Bahrain.
Business Monitor International's Bahrain Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bahraini oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Bahrain to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bahraini oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Bahraini Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Bahrain.
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Bahraini Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Bahrain.
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Bahrain Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| Bahrain Political SWOT |
| Bahrain Economic SWOT |
| Bahrain Business Environment SWOT |
Chapter - Bahrain Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Energy Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Middle East LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Middle East Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| Bahrain Upstream Rating – Overview |
| Bahrain Upstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Bahrain Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
| Bahrain Downstream Rating – Overview |
| Bahrain Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Bahrain Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
Chapter - Business Environment |
| Legal Framework |
| Infrastructure |
| Labour Force |
| Foreign Investment Policy |
| Tax Regime |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil and Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply and Demand |
| Gas Supply and Demand |
| Refining and Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Bahrain Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Bahrain Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: Bahrain - Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Domestic and Foreign Companies in the Bahrain Oil and Gas Sector |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Key Downstream Players |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| Bahrain Petroleum Company (Bapco) |
| Bahrain National Gas Company (Banagas) |
| Caltex Bahrain |
| Others – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) |
| Bahrain Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How we generate our industry forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
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Bahrain Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
In this report, we forecast that Bahrain will account for 0.4% of Middle East regional oil demand by 2013, while providing just 0.2% of supply. Regional oil use of 8.24mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 10.86mn b/d in 2008. It should average 11.09mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 12.08mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 22.87mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 25.94mn b/d. It is set to rise to 28.99mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 14.63mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 15.08mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 16.91mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 395bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 573bcm targeted for 2013, representing 45% growth. Production of an estimated 410bcm in 2008 should reach 617bcm in 2013 (+50.5%), which implies net exports rising to 45bcm by the end of the period. Bahrain’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 2.43%, while its share of production is put at 2.59%. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.75%, with the country accounting for 2.11% of supply.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (- 45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65 in 2011 and US$70/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
Bahrain’s real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 3.5% for 2009, following an estimated 5.2% in 2008. We are assuming 4.4% growth in 2010, 4.2% in 2011, 4.4% in 2012, and 5.0% in 2013. Consumption of oil is set to rise with the growth of the economy, increasing by at least 3% per annum over the forecast period and reaching an estimated 48,000b/d by 2013. The state accounts for all domestic oil and gas production, as well as the refining and distribution segment. International oil company (IOC) involvement is very limited. Thanks to a lack of resources potential and the absence of large-scale IOC upstream ventures, crude and liquids output is now averaging 48,000b/d; however, no further significant near-term decline is expected. We are assuming liquids volumes will rise towards a peak of 60,000b/d by 2012. Gas output is set to increase from an estimated 10.6bcm in 2008 to 13.0bcm during the period, providing an import requirement of 2.8bcm.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in Bahrain oil production of 18.4%, with crude volumes peaking in 2012 at 60,000b/d, before falling to 40,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 38.4%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 55,000 b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to climb towards 15bcm by 2014-16, then decline to 14bcm by the end of the period. With 2007-2018 demand growth of 123%, this provides an import requirement rising to 6.1bcm by 2018. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Bahrain still occupies ninth place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, above only Saudi Arabia. It stands second from last because of the very modest oil and gas reserves, poor production growth outlook, low reserves-to-production ratios (RPR) and modest non-state involvement in the upstream segment. The country’s risk environment is very sound, but this may prove insufficient to help Bahrain tackle Kuwait above it in the league table. It should, however, be able to keep Saudi Arabia at bay and avoid slipping to last place. The state is now ranked second from last (above only Iraq) in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with few high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked ninth thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, population and the privatisation trend. The growth outlooks for oil/gas consumption and refining capacity also represent relatively weak suits, along with the pedestrian increase in GDP per capita. Iraq is immediately behind it in the regional rankings, and there is some risk of it challenging Bahrain.
|
Bahrain Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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