BMI's Executive Summary

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The new Belgium Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 5.71% of developed European regional oil demand by 2011, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption reached an estimated 14.23mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2006.

It is set to rise to around 14.65mn b/d by 2011. In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region last year consumed an estimated 451bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 535bcm targeted for 2011, representing 18.7% growth. Production of an estimated 286bcm in 2006 should fall to 268bcm in 2011, which implies net imports rising from last year's estimated 165bcm to some 268bcm by the end of the period. Belgium's share of gas consumption in 2006 was an estimated 4.00%, while it has no share of production. By 2011, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.93%.

For the whole of last year, our estimates of average crude oil prices are US$61.10 for the OPEC basket, US$65.10 for Brent, US$66.20 per barrel (/bbl) for WTI and US$61.30 for Urals. For the first quarter of this year, we have adjusted our forecasts to reflect the weather-induced volatility. The OPEC basket is now expected to have averaged US$54.30/bbl, with Brent at US$57.60; WTI averaging US$58.70 and Urals at US$54.00/bbl. Our projections for 2007 as a whole are barely changed from the last quarterly report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$55/bbl. Based on last year's typical price differentials, this implies Brent at US$58.80, WTI averaging US$59.90/bbl, and Urals at US$55.30/bbl.

Belgian real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 2.3% for 2007, down from 3.1% in 2006. We are assuming 1.9% growth in 2008, 2.2% in 2009, followed by 1.9% in 2010 and 2.1% in 2011. Ongoing oil demand growth averaging no more than 0.5% per annum is expected. Our forecast is for Belgium/Luxembourg oil consumption to rise from an estimated 812,000b/d last year to 837,000b/d by 2011. From an estimated 17.5bcm in 2006, we expect to see gas demand rise to a minimum of 21bcm by 2011, all met by increased pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.

The long-term political risk score for Belgium is 87.5, the third highest in our European universe behind Greece and Spain, and well above the global average of 65.5. The regional average is 85.6. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 71.6, above that of France and Italy, well above the global average of 60.9, but below the regional average of 72.3. Our business environment rating is 74.2, which is the highest of the developed European countries we cover, and well above the regional average of 66.3.

Belgium has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is no upstream oil and gas segment, but downstream oil and gas features a mixture of international oil companies (IOCs) and former state companies now in foreign hands. Both the gas and power markets are substantially open to competition, with full opening imminent.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - Regional Market Overview

Developed Markets

Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d)

Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)

Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)

Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm)

Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm)

Belgium

Chapter 3 - Oil Market Outlook

Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2006

Revised Forecasts

Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter 4 - Regional Supply and Demand

North West & Mediterranean Europe

Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Developed Europe

Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Developed Europe

Chapter 5 - Global Picture

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)

Chapter 6 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Oil and Gas Reserves

Oil Supply and Demand

Gas Supply and Demand

LNG

Refining and Oil Products Trade

Revenues/Import Costs

Table: Belgium Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts

Other Energy

Table: Belgium Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts

Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Chapter 7 - Belgium Macroeconomic Outlook

Economic Activity

Table: Belgium - Macroeconomic Forecasts

Chapter 8 - Country Snapshot: Belgium Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Chapter 9 - Regional Case Study – Norsk Hydro

Table: Norsk Hydro Statistics

Chapter 10 - Competitive Landscape

Executive Summary

Table: Key Players – Belgian Oil And Gas Sector

Overview/State Role

Table: Key Downstream Players

Chapter 11 - Company Profiles

Total

ExxonMobil

Petroplus

Distrigas

Chapter 12 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Energy Industry

Cross checks

Sources

Network of European Oil & Gas Sources

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BMI's European Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil and gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: