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Brazil Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Brazil Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Brazil.
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Brazil’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Brazilian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Brazil.
The Brazil Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Brazil to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Brazil, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Brazil.
Business Monitor International's Brazil Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Brazil to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazilian oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Brazilian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Brazilian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Brazil.
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Brazil Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| Brazil Political SWOT |
| Brazil Economic SWOT |
| Brazil Business Environment SWOT |
Chapter - Brazil Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Energy Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Latin America LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Latin America Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| Brazil Upstream Rating – Overview |
| Brazil Upstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Brazil Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
| Brazil Downstream Rating – Overview |
| Brazil Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Brazil Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
Chapter - Business Environment |
| Legal Framework |
| Infrastructure |
| Labour Force |
| Foreign Investment Policy |
| Tax Regime |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil And Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Refining And Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Brazil's Oil & Gas Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Brazil Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: Brazil - Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Players In Brazil's Oil & Gas Sector |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players In Brazil's Oil & Gas Sector |
| Table: Key Downstream Players In Brazil's Oil & Gas Sector |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| Petróleo Brasileiro SA – Petrobras |
| Shell Brasil |
| Repsol YPF Brasil |
| Esso Brasileira de Petróleo |
| Chevron Brasil |
| Ultrapar Participações (Grupo Ultra) |
| BG do Brasil |
| BP Brasil |
| StatoilHydro do Brasil |
| Galp Energia - Summary |
| Eni - Summary |
| Mitsui – Summary |
| Devon – Summary |
| Cosan – Summary |
| Vale – Summary |
| Anadarko – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) |
| Brazil Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
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Brazil Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The latest Brazil Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 31.80% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 27.36% of supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.66mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 7.72mn b/d in 2008. It should average 7.86mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 8.58mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was just under 10.40mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 9.99mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.78mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are slipping, because demand growth is exceeding the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.73mn b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 2.27mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to be 2.21mn b/d in 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the Latin America region in 2008 consumed an estimated 194bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 266bcm targeted for 2013, representing 45% growth. Estimated production of 208bcm in 2008 should reach 294bcm in 2013, and implies 28bcm of net exports at the end of the period. Brazil's share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 12.09%, while its share of production was 6%. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 11.39%, with the country accounting for 8.51% of supply.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in the fourth quarter of 2008 (Q408) was an estimated US$52.53/bbl, down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (-45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67 per barrel (bbl), assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
Brazilian real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 2.3% for 2009, following an estimated 5.7% in 2008. We are assuming 2.6% growth in 2010, 4.3% in 2011, followed by 4.5% in 2012 and 4.1% in 2013. Partly-privatised deepwater specialist Petrobras will continue to partner international oil companies (IOCs) in supporting output growth efforts, while dominating domestic production. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of at least 2.95mn b/d by 2013, with the country expected to pump 2.30mn b/d in 2009. Consumption is forecast to increase by 3.0-3.5% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 2.73mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The export capability would therefore be approximately 0.56mn b/d by 2013. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 12.5bcm in 2008 to 25.0bcm over the period to 2013, with consumption climbing from 23.4bcm to 30.4bcm.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Brazilian oil production of 135%, with crude volumes rising steadily to 4.3mn b/d by 2018. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 41%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 3.09mn b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from an estimated 12.5bcm in 2008 to 35.0bcm by 2018. With demand growth of 68%, this provides a net import requirement falling from an estimated 10.9bcm to 1.9bcm during the 10-year period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Brazil this quarter retakes outright first place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, moving ahead of Venezuela, thanks to the size of the oil resource base, output growth prospects, attractive licensing regime and competitive environment. While some weak points exist in terms of the country’s risk ratings and only mid-table reserves-to-production ratios (RPR), its position at the head of the regional league table continues to look unassailable. Its sound long-term outlook should see Brazil keeping clear of Venezuela from here on. The country still tops the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its region-beating oil demand, substantial refining capacity and competitive environment. Colombia ranks second, but is now five points behind the regional leader. Therefore, we see no obvious threat to Brazil over the medium term.
|
Brazil Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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