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Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Bulgaria .
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Bulgaria ’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Bulgarian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Bulgaria .
The Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Bulgaria to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Bulgaria , refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Bulgaria .
Business Monitor International's Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Bulgaria to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Bulgarian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria .
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Bulgarian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Bulgaria .
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| Bulgaria Political SWOT |
| Bulgaria Economic SWOT |
| Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT |
Chapter - Bulgarian Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Energy Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Central/Eastern Europe Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| Bulgaria Upstream Rating – Overview |
| Bulgaria Upstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Bulgaria Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
| Bulgaria Downstream Rating – Overview |
| Bulgaria Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Bulgaria Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
Chapter - Business Environment |
| Legal Framework |
| Infrastructure |
| Labour Force |
| Foreign Investment Policy |
| Tax Regime |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil and Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply and Demand |
| Gas Supply and Demand |
| Refining and Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Bulgaria Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Bulgaria Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity,2006-2013 |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Players Bulgarian Oil & Gas Sector |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Key Downstream Players |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| Lukoil Neftekhim |
| Oil & Gas Exploration & Production plc |
| Petrol AD |
| OMV Bulgaria |
| Shell Bulgaria |
| Eko-Elda Bulgaria |
| Melrose Resources |
| Anschutz/Ramco – Summary |
| Direct Petroleum Exploration – Summary |
| JKX Oil & Gas/Aurelian Oil & Gas – Summary |
| Opet – Summary |
| Prista – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm) |
| Bulgaria Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How we generate our industry forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
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Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The latest Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.17% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2013, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.36mn b/d in 2008. It should average 5.42mn b/d in 2008 and then rise to around 5.99mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 8.83mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 13.00mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.44mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.18mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.64mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 8.45mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 637bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 749bcm targeted for 2013, representing 17.5% growth. Production of an estimated 783bcm in 2008 should reach 913bcm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from around 145bcm in 2008 to 164bcm by the end of the period. Bulgaria’s share of consumption in 2008 was an estimated 0.52%, while it has no significant share of production. By 2013, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.71%.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full-year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (- 45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
Bulgarian real GDP is forecast by BMI to fall by 1.4% in 2009, following estimated 2008 growth of 5.8%. We are assuming 1.6% growth in 2010, 3.5% in 2011, followed by 4.0% in 2012, and 4.5% in 2013. Oil demand is rising by up to 2.0% per annum, which suggests that consumption could reach 130,000b/d by 2013. Imports can be expected to grow in line, as exploration efforts in the largely privatised hydrocarbons sector by small international oil companies (IOCs) do not appear likely to deliver increased domestic crude volumes. Gas consumption is rising well ahead of domestic supply. While gas output could reach 1.1bcm by the end of 2014, demand is heading for 5.30bcm, requiring imports of 4.20bcm
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Bulgarian oil consumption of 20.2%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 121,000b/d in 2008 to 143,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Gas production is expected to fall over the short term from the estimated 2008 level of 0.3bcm to just 0.1bcm in 2009, before recovering to a peak of 1.5bcm by 2014. Import dependency therefore increases from the estimated 2008 level of 3.0bcm to 5.6bcm at the end of the period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Bulgaria shares ninth place with the Czech Republic in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating. Its minimal oil and gas reserves, poor production outlook, and limited competitive landscape work against the country, but are offset somewhat by reasonable country risk factors. Long-term scope exists for Bulgaria to challenge Romania above it. The country is well in the lower half of the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect near-term progress further up the rankings. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, while gas consumption is particularly modest. The relatively high level of retail site intensity represents a weak suit, although gas demand growth prospects are the best in the CEE region. Bulgaria this quarter takes 12th place, and has no great re-rating potential over the longer term.
|
Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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