BMI's Executive Summary

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The new Canada Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 9.91% of North American regional oil demand by 2011, while contributing 32.19% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption reached 22.85mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2006. It is set to rise to around 24.14mn b/d by 2011. In terms of natural gas, the North America region in 2006 consumed 717bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 825bcm targeted for 2011, representing 15.2% growth. Production of 711bcm in 2006 should fall to 635bcm in 2011, which implies net imports rising from 5bcm in 2006 to some 190bcm by the end of the period. Canada's share of gas consumption in 2006 was 13.49%, while it provided 26.30% of production. By 2011, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 12.93%, with 27.56% of production.

Global oil demand growth is now expected to be 1.9% in 2007, down from our June 2007 forecast, but with Asia Pacific and the CEE regions dominating. While oil demand growth assumptions remain robust, there are early signs that future revisions will be on the downside as factors such as the credit crunch kick in. The overall demand outlook for the period to 2011 remains healthy, but subject to review if the macroeconomic outlook deteriorates. Our projections for 2007 as a whole are revised upwards from the last quarterly report. We are now assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$64 per barrel, compared with the US$59 estimate provided by our last quarterly report. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$67.81, WTI averaging US$66.18/bbl, and Urals at US$64.43/bbl.

Canadian real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 2.6% for 2007, down from 2.8% in 2006. We are assuming 2.9% growth in 2008, followed by an average 2.6% in 2009-11. The country's oil demand is expected to average 2.30mn b/d in 2007, then rise to 2.39mn b/d by 2011. Oil output looks set to remain around 3.3mn b/d for the next few years, before heading lower beyond the end of the decade. However, there is long-term scope for improvement. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) predicts that oil sands production will reach 3.5mn b/d by 2015 and 4.0mn b/d by 2020, accounting for more than 80% of Canadian oil production.

Our long-term political risk rating is 93.3, well above the global average of 65.2 and the second-highest of the Developed Markets group, behind Norway. Our long-term economic risk rating is 80.9, which compares with a global average of 60.5 and puts Canada well ahead of the US and all developed European countries except Norway. Our business environment rating is 78.7, now ahead of the US. Canada has a privatised energy sector that boasts a large, competitive upstream oil and gas segment featuring domestic independents and integrated companies, plus direct and indirect participation by international oil companies (IOCs). The downstream segment is shared by IOC-controlled domestic companies and former state company Petro-Canada.

Competitive Landscape for Americas Oil & Gas Reports: Sample of  Companies Ranked

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At-a-glance perspective on the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing each market's oil & gas industry. BMI also provides similar economic and business environment studies. Company SWOTs (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) covering all leading oil & gas companies operating in each market, including competitive intelligence on geographic presence and competitive positioning of multinationals against local companies; leading products, services and brands; sales and local market share; foreign direct investment, projects, partners and acquisition strategy. Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets, number of employees and registration dates. BMI analyses each companys performance, market position, strategy and investment potential.

Network of American Oil & Gas Sources

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BMI's American Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil & gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: