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Chile Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Chile Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Chile.
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Chile’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Chilean oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Chile.
The Chile Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Chile to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Chile, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Chile.
Business Monitor International's Chile Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chilean oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Chile to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chilean oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Chilean Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Chile.
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Chilean Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Chile.
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Chile Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| Chile Political SWOT |
| Chile Economic SWOT |
| Chile Business Environment SWOT |
Chapter - Chile Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Energy Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Latin America LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Latin America Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| Chile Upstream Rating – Overview |
| Chile Upstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Chile Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
| Chile Downstream Rating – Overview |
| Chile Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Chile Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
Chapter - Business Environment |
| Legal Framework |
| Infrastructure |
| Labour Force |
| Foreign Investment Policy |
| Tax Regime |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil And Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Refining and Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Chile Oil & Gas – Historical data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Chile Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: Chile - Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Players |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Key Downstream Players |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| ENAP – Empresa Nacional del Petróleo |
| Copec – Compañía de Petróleos de Chile |
| Shell Chile |
| ExxonMobil Cono Sur |
| Petróleos Transandinos Repsol YPF |
| GeoPark Holdings – Summary |
| Wintershall – Summary |
| Pan American Energy – Summary |
| Others – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) |
| Chile Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
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Chile Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The latest Chile Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.55% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2013, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.66mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 7.72mn b/d in 2008. It should average 7.86mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 8.58mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was just under 10.40mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 9.99mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.78mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are slipping, because demand growth is exceeding the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.73mn b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 2.27mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to be 2.21mn b/d in 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the Latin America region in 2008 consumed an estimated 194bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 266bcm targeted for 2013, representing 45% growth. Estimated production of 208bcm in 2008 should reach 294bcm in 2013, and implies 28bcm of net exports the end of the period. Chile’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 2.84%, while it has no significant share of production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.95%.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53/bbl, down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (-45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
Chilean real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 1.8% for 2009, down from an estimated 4.0% in 2008. We are assuming 2.5% growth in 2010, 3.6% in 2011, 4.2% in 2012, followed by 4.4% in 2013. State oil and gas company ENAP is responsible for all domestic oil and gas production, with volumes in decline. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 4,000b/d by 2013, with the country expected to pump an average 8,000b/d in 2009. Consumption is forecast to increase by up to 3% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 390,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 386,000b/d by 2013. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 1.6bcm in 2007 to 1.7bcm by 2011, falling back to 1.6bcm in 2012/13, with net imports of 6.3bcm required by 2013.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Chilean oil consumption of 25.9%, with demand rising steadily from 342,000b/d to 431,000b/d. The annual growth rate is expected to slow to 2.0% towards the end of the period. Gas production is expected to peak at around 1.8bcm in 2009/10, before declining steadily to 1.2bcm by 2018. With demand growth of 128% to 10bcm, this provides an import requirement rising from 3.9bcm to 8.8bcm during the 10-year period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Chile’s outright last place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating is achieved in spite of high reserves-to-production ratios (RPR) and an investor-friendly country risk profile. There is little likelihood of a move much further up the rankings, but Chile may be able to catch Mexico during the next few quarters. Chile fares rather better in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with a share of sixth place (alongside Venezuela) reflecting its oil demand growth outlook, regulatory environment and attractive country risk rating. It is positioned ahead of Mexico in the league table, with the potential to move higher.
|
Chile Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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