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China Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The China Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for China .
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for China ’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Chinese oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in China .
The China Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for China to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in China , refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within China .
Business Monitor International's China Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for China to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Chinese Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in China .
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Chinese Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in China .
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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China Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
Chapter - SWOT Analysis |
| China Political SWOT |
| China Economic SWOT |
| China Business Environment SWOT |
Chapter - China Energy Market Overview |
Chapter - Regional Energy Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Asia Pacific Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| China Upstream Rating ''“ Overview |
| China Upstream Rating ''“ Potential Returns |
| China Upstream Rating ''“ Risks To Potential Returns |
| China Downstream Rating ''“ Overview |
| China Downstream Rating ''“ Potential Returns |
| China Downstream Rating ''“ Risks To Potential Returns |
Chapter - Business Environment |
| Legal Framework |
| Infrastructure |
| Labour Force |
| Foreign Investment Policy |
| Tax Regime |
| Security Risk |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil And Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| LNG |
| Refining And Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: China Oil & Gas ''“ Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: China Other Energy ''“ Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI'''s Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Energy Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: China ''“ Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Players ''“ Chinese Oil & Gas Sector |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Key Downstream Players |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) |
| PetroChina |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) |
| China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) |
| Shell (China) Ltd |
| BP China |
| ExxonMobil China |
| Chevron ''“ Summary |
| ConocoPhillips ''“ Summary |
| Husky Energy ''“ Summary |
| StatoilHydro ''“ Summary |
| Total ''“ Summary |
| Others ''“ Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) |
| China Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
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China Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The latest China Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 34.93% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 45.17% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.87mn b/d in 2008. It should average 25.79mn b/d in 2009, then rise to around 29.12mn b/d by 2013.
Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.41mn b/d in 2008. It is set to increase to 8.74mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed an estimated 440bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 551bcm is targeted for 2013. Production of an estimated 364bcm in 2008 should reach 486bcm in 2013, but implies net imports easing from an estimated 76bcm per annum in 2008 to 65bcm in 2013. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters.
China’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 16.97%, while its share of production is put at 20.58%. By 2013 its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.93%, with the country accounting for 19.86% of supply.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q109 was an estimated US$45.78 per barrel (bbl), down 13% from the US$52.51/bbl recorded during the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little change to our view of oil market developments. BMI is forecasting an average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained in April, before further recovery to a possible US$57.00 is seen by June. For 2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% year-on-year). The BMI full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$53.73, WTI averaging US$54.90/bbl and Urals at US$52.66 for 2009.
For the whole of 2009, the BMI assumption for gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl, with the price peaking at a forecast monthly average of US$64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, the BMI forecast is for an average price of US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$94.48/bbl in December.
The full-year outturn represents a 42.8% fall from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$53.75 in February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008.
Chinese GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 5.6% for 2009, down from 9.0% in 2008. We are assuming 6.8% growth in 2010, 7.9% in 2011, followed by 7.6% in 2012 and 2013. While partly privatised, the oil and gas industry remains under state control with PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC charged with maintaining domestic production. We are assuming oil and gas liquids output of no more than 3.95mn b/d by 2013, although the country is expected to pump 3.90mn b/d in 2009. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by around 24.8% in 2008-2013, implying demand of 10.17mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 6.22mn b/d by 2013.
Between 2008 and 2018 we are forecasting a decrease in Chinese oil production of 2.63%. Crude volumes will peak in 2013 at 3.95mn b/d, then fall steadily to 3.70mn b/d in 2018. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 47.47%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 12.02mn b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise rapidly, from around 75bcm in 2008 to a possible 116bcm by 2018.
With demand growth of 96.6%, this provides an import requirement rising to 30.6bcm – increasingly in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
China still ranks seventh in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating (just behind Malaysia and the Philippines), with a strong resource position being countered by a less impressive regulatory structure and substantial state involvement. The risk environment is also less attractive than for many Asian peers. Over the medium to long term, China has the capability to progress up through the rankings and claim a higher slot in the regional league table. The country is now ranked equal first with India in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its status as a high-growth energy market with strongly positive population and demand trends, plus a low level of retail site intensity. This quarter it has a four-point lead over third-placed Singapore.
|
China Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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