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Colombia Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Colombia Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Colombia .
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Colombia ’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Colombian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Colombia .
The Colombia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Colombia to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Colombia , refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Colombia .
Business Monitor International's Colombia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Colombian oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Colombia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Colombian oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Colombian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia .
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Colombian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Colombia .
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Colombia Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| Colombia Political SWOT Analysis |
| Colombia Economic SWOT Analysis |
| Colombia Business Environment SWOT Analysis |
Chapter - Colombia Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Energy Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Latin America LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Latin America Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| Colombia Upstream Rating – Overview |
| Colombia Upstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Colombia Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
| Colombia Downstream Rating – Overview |
| Colombia Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Colombia Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
Chapter - Business Environment |
| Legal Framework |
| Infrastructure |
| Labour Force |
| Foreign Investment Policy |
| Tax Regime |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil And Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| LNG |
| Refining And Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Colombia Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Colombia Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: Colombia - Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
| Table: Key Players – Colombian Oil & Gas Sector |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Key Downstream Players |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos (Ecopetrol) |
| BP Colombia |
| ExxonMobil Colombia |
| Chevron Colombia |
| Occidental de Colombia |
| Petrobras Colombia |
| TEPMA Colombia (Total) |
| RepsolYPF – Summary |
| Royal Dutch Shell – Summary |
| Solana Resources – Summary |
| Cepsa – Summary |
| Perenco – Summary |
| Petro Vista – Summary |
| Pacific Rubiales – Summary |
| Gran Tierra – Summary |
| Others – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) |
| Colombia Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
|
Colombia Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The latest Colombia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.37% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 6.26% of supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.66mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 7.72mn b/d in 2008. It should average 7.86mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 8.58mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was just under 10.40mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 9.99mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.78mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are slipping, because demand growth is exceeding the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.73mn b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 2.27mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to be 2.21mn b/d in 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the Latin America region in 2008 consumed an estimated 194bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 266bcm targeted for 2013, representing 45% growth. Estimated production of 208bcm in 2008 should reach 294bcm in 2013, and implies 28bcm of net exports the end of the period. Colombia's share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 4.07%, while its share of production was 4.08%. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.75%, with the country accounting for 3.74% of supply.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.0/bbl (-45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.0. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.0/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.0 in 2011 and US$70.0/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.0/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl
Colombian real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 2.1% for 2009, down from an estimated 3.4% in 2008. We are assuming 3.9% growth in 2010, 4.7% in 2011, followed by 4.2% in 2012 and 4.4% in 2013. The government is working hard to encourage international oil company (IOC) investment and boost near-term domestic oil production, aided by state-owned Ecopetrol. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 675,000b/d by 2013, with the country expected to pump 610,000b/d in 2009. Consumption is forecast to increase by 3-4% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 289,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The country’s export capability will therefore rise to around 386,000b/d by 2013. Gas consumption is forecast to increase from an estimated 7.9bcm in 2008 to 10.0bcm over the period, met by rising domestic production, which will also provide modest exports to Venezuela.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in Colombian oil production of 5.53%, with crude volumes peaking at 675,000b/d in 2013 and then falling steadily to 530,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 47.12%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 335,000 b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from around 8.5bcm in 2007 to 15.0bcm in 2018. With demand growth of 65%, this implies export potential reaching 2.3bcm by 2018. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Colombia still ranks fourth in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, ahead of Trinidad and behind Peru. While the absolute resource base is modest, the competitive environment is attractive and licensing terms have improved to become some of the best in the region. Country risk is moderate and Colombia is well placed to retain its strong position in the league table. The country still ranks second in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its oil demand growth outlook, refining capacity expansion plans, moderate Country Risk and low retail site intensity. Argentina and Trinidad share third place, but arguably lack the potential to challenge Colombia.
|
Colombia Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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