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BMI's Executive Summary[TOP]
The latest Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.99% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2011, while making no material contribution to supply. CEE regional oil demand rose to an estimated 5.21mn barrels per day (b/d) last year and should average 5.35mn b/d in 2007, before reaching 5.97mn b/d by 2011. Production of an estimated 12.41mn b/d last year is forecast to reach 15.22mn b/d by 2011. CEE gas consumption in 2006 was an estimated 587bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 715bcm targeted for 2011. Production last year of an estimated 680bcm should reach 758bcm by the end of the period. The Czech Republic's share of consumption in 2006 was an estimated 1.53%, with no meaningful contribution to regional supply. Its share of demand is forecast to be 1.40% by the end of the forecast period. For the whole of last year, our estimates of average crude oil prices are US$61.10 for the OPEC basket, US$65.10 for Brent, US$66.20 per barrel (/bbl) for WTI and US$61.30 for Urals. For the first quarter of this year, we have adjusted our forecasts to reflect the weather-induced volatility. The OPEC basket is now expected to have averaged US$54.30/bbl, with Brent at US$57.60; WTI averaging US$58.70 and Urals at US$54.00/bbl. Our projections for 2007 as a whole are barely changed from the last quarterly report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$55/bbl. Based on last year's typical price differentials, this implies Brent at US$58.80, WTI averaging US$59.90/bbl, and Urals at US$55.30/bbl. Czech real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 5.3% for 2007, up from 6.1% in 2006. We are assuming 4.8% growth in 2008, followed by 4.7% in 2009 and 4.5% in 2010/11. Assuming an average rise in consumption of 2% per annum, below the CEE norm, oil demand will reach 238,000b/d in 2011 β implying imports of at least 234,000b/d. In spite of a privatised oil industry, there is very limited international oil company (IOC) involvement in the upstream segment to boost domestic supply of oil or gas. BMI is assuming gas demand will rise by an annual 5% from the estimated 8.7bcm in 2006 to around 111.1bcm by 2011. In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, the Czech Republic receives an unchanged composite score of 33, which now ranks the country equal fifth out of 12 states included in the CEE region, alongside Hungary. The overall business environment can be considered fairly neutral in a regional context, thanks largely to low levels of perceived economic and political risk, plus a better-than-average regulatory regime. There is very little in the way of domestic upstream oil or gas resources, which limits the Czech Republic's appeal to IOCs. However, the fuels market is growing relatively quickly, with EU membership stimulating both privatisation and liberalisation. |
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Contents[TOP] Chapter 1 - Executive SummaryChapter 2 - SWOT AnalysisCzech Republic Business Environment SWOT Czech Republic Political SWOT Czech Republic Economic SWOT Chapter 3 - Regional Market OverviewCentral/Eastern Europe Region Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) Czech Republic Chapter 4 - Business Environment RankingsCzech Republic Central/Eastern Europe Region Chapter 5 - Czech Republic Business Environment RankingEconomics long-term risk Politics long-term risk Oil & Gas Growth Oil/Gas Reserves Licensing/Regulation Competitive Environment Political Risk Summary Economic Risk Summary Business Environment Risk Summary Legal Code/Corruption Foreign Direct Investment Tax Regime Chapter 6 - Oil Market OutlookTable: Crude Price Forecasts 2006 Revised Forecasts Table: Oil Price Forecasts Chapter 7 - Regional Supply and DemandCentral/Eastern Europe Table: Oil Production (000b/d) Central/Eastern Europe Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) Central/Eastern Europe Chapter 8 - Global PictureTable: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) Chapter 9 - Industry Forecast ScenarioOil and Gas Reserves Oil Supply and Demand Gas Supply and Demand Refining and Oil Products Trade Revenues/Import Costs Table: Czech Republic Oil & Gas Historic Data & Forecasts Other Energy Table: Czech Republic Other Energy Historic Data & Forecasts Key Risks to BMIs Forecast Scenario Chapter 10 - Economic OutlookTable: Growth And Output Chapter 11 - Country Snapshot: Czech Republic Demographic DataSection 1: Population: Table: Demographic Indicators (2005) Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown Section 2: Education & Healthcare Table: Education Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics Table: Healthcare: Expenditure Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power Table: Employment Indicators Table: Consumption and Stratification Chapter 12 - Regional Case StudyEmerging Player Table: Lukoil Investment* Chapter 13 - Competitive LandscapeExecutive Summary Table: Key Players Czech Oil & Gas Sector Overview/State Role PKN Orlen Summary Unipetrol Summary Shell Summary Table: Key Upstream Player OMV Summary Eni Summary BP Summary ConocoPhillips Summary ExxonMobil Summary Table: Key Downstream Players Cepro Summary Slovnaft Summary MND Summary Carpathian Resources Summary Gazprom Summary Chapter 14 - Company MonitorUnipetrol Shell Czech Republic OMV CR Conoco Czech Republic Agip Praha Moravskι Naftovι Doly (MND) Chapter 15 - BMI Forecast ModellingHow we generate our industry forecasts Energy Industry Cross checks Sources Chapter 16 - Appendix: Regional Demographic DataTable: Wages (ave labour force per annum), US$ PPP Table: Population Table: Household Spending Per Capita, US$ Table: Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP Table: Market Size, GDP, US$bn
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Network of European Oil & Gas Sources[TOP] BMI's European Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil and gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: |
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