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Germany Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Germany Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Germany .
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Germany ’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, German oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Germany .
The Germany Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Germany to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Germany , refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Germany .
Business Monitor International's Germany Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the German oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Germany to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the German oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the German Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Germany .
- Exploit The Latest Competitive German Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Germany .
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Germany Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| Germany Political SWOT |
| Germany Economic SWOT |
Chapter - Germany Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Energy Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil and Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply and Demand |
| Gas Supply and Demand |
| LNG |
| Refining and Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Germany Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Germany Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: Germany – Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts, 2008-2013 |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Players – German Oil And Gas Sector |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Key Downstream Players |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| Shell/DEA Oil |
| BP |
| Total |
| ExxonMobil |
| PKN Orlen |
| OMV |
| Gazprom – Summary |
| Rhein Petroleum – Summary |
| RWE – Summary |
| E.ON – Summary |
| Wintershall – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: Developed Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm) |
| Germany Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How we generate our industry forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
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Germany Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The latest Germany Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 17.17% of developed European regional oil demand by 2013, while making a contribution of just over 1.0% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption reached an estimated 13.75mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2008. It is set to rise to around 14.04mn b/d by 2013. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.97mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 5.0mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.80mn b/d by 2013. Oil imports are growing steadily, because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2008, net crude imports were an estimated 8.75mn b/d. By 2013, they are expected to have reached 10.24mn b/d.
In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2008 consumed an estimated 440bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 490bcm targeted for 2013, representing 11.2% growth. Production of an estimated 269bcm in 2007 should rise to 279bcm in 2013, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2008 level of 171bcm to some 211bcm by the end of the period. Germany’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 18.86%, while it accounted for 5.39% of production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.0%, with a 4.83% share of production.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (- 45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
German real GDP growth is forecast by BMI to fall 3.2% in 2009, down from estimated growth of 1.1% in 2008. We are assuming an average 1.0% growth in 2009-2013. Our forecast is for minimal oil demand growth to 2013, with end-period consumption at no more than 2.41mn b/d after declining demand in 2008/09. Gas consumption is now more than 20% of primary energy demand, accounting for 11% of power generation supply. Our estimate is for gas demand to rise from an estimated 83bcm in 2008 to 93bcm by 2013. Germany’s gas production is forecast to fall from an estimated 14.5bcm in 2008 to 13.5bcm over the period.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in German oil and gas liquids consumption of 4.2%, with volumes peaking at 2.41mn b/d in 2011-13, then heading lower to 2.29mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Production is set to fall from an estimated 60,000b/d to just 30,000b/d during the same period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2008 level of 83bcm to a peak of 93bcm by 2013/2014, before slipping back to 90bcm by 2016-2018. Imports are expected to peak at 79.5bcm in 2013/2014, in the form of pipeline volumes. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the Appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
BMI’s long-term political risk rating for Germany is currently 85.8, in line with the Developed Markets average and behind only the UK and Norway in Developed Europe. Our long-term economic risk rating for Germany is 66.9 (behind Spain, Belgium, the UK and Norway in developed Europe), which compares with a Developed Markets average of 68.9. Germany has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, with international oil company (IOC) and local company involvement. Downstream oil features a mixture of IOCs and domestic companies, while gas and electricity interests remain in largely German (non-state) hands.
|
Germany Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
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