BMI's Executive Summary

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The latest Germany Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 18.06% of developed European regional oil demand by 2011, while making a contribution of less than 1.0% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption reached an estimated 14.23mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2006. It is set to rise to around 14.65mn b/d by 2011. In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region last year consumed an estimated 451bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 535bcm targeted for 2011, representing 18.7% growth. Production of an estimated 286bcm in 2006 should fall to 268bcm in 2011, which implies net imports rising from last year's estimated 165bcm to some 268bcm by the end of the period. Germany's share of gas consumption in 2006 was an estimated 19.51%, while it accounted for 5.60% of production. By 2011, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.25%, with a 4.85% share of production.

For the whole of last year, our estimates of average crude oil prices are US$61.10 for the OPEC basket, US$65.10 for Brent, US$66.20 per barrel (/bbl) for WTI and US$61.30 for Urals. For the first quarter of this year, we have adjusted our forecasts to reflect the weather-induced volatility. The OPEC basket is now expected to have averaged US$54.30/bbl, with Brent at US$57.60; WTI averaging US$58.70 and Urals at US$54.00/bbl. Our projections for 2007 as a whole are barely changed from the last quarterly report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$55/bbl. Based on last year's typical price differentials, this implies Brent at US$58.80, WTI averaging US$59.90/bbl, and Urals at US$55.30/bbl.

German real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 2.1% for 2007, down from 2.7% in 2006. We are assuming 2.2% growth in 2008, 1.7% in 2009, followed by 1.6% in 2010 and 1.5% in 2011. Our forecast is for slow oil demand growth to 2011, with end-period consumption at no more than 2.65mn b/d. Gas consumption is now more than 20% of primary energy demand, accounting for 11% of power generation supply. Our estimate is for gas demand to rise from 88.5bcm last year to around 102.6bcm by 2011. Germany's gas production is forecast to fall from an estimated 15.5bcm last year to around 13.2bcm over the period.

Our long-term political rating is currently 84.2, well above the global average of 65.5, but below the scores for Norway, Greece, Belgium, Spain and France thus ranking Germany third from last in our universe of developed European countries. The regional average is 85.6. Our long-term economy rating is 73.5 (ahead only of Belgium, France, Italy, the UK and Spain in developed Europe), which compares with a global average of 60.9 and a regional average of 72.3. Our business environment rating is 65.5, ahead of Italy, France and the UK. The regional average is 66.3. Germany has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, with international oil company (IOC) and local company involvement. Downstream oil features a mixture of IOCs and domestic companies, while gas and electricity interests remain in largely German (non-state) hands.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - Regional Market Overview

Developed Markets

Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d)

Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)

Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)

Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm)

Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm)

Germany

Chapter 3 - Oil Market Outlook

Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2006

Revised Forecasts

Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter 4 - Regional Supply and Demand

North West & Mediterranean Europe

Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Developed Europe

Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Developed Europe

Chapter 5 - Global Picture

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)

Chapter 6 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Oil and Gas Reserves

Oil Supply and Demand

Gas Supply and Demand

Refining and Oil Products Trade

Revenues/Import Costs

Table: Germany Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts

Other Energy

Table: Germany Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts

Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Chapter 7 - Germany Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Germany - Macroeconomic Forecasts

Chapter 8 - Regional Case Study – Norsk Hydro

Table: Norsk Hydro Statistics

Chapter 9 - Competitive Landscape

Executive Summary

Table: Key Players – German Oil And Gas Sector

Overview/State Role

Table: Key Upstream Players

Table: Key Downstream Players

Chapter 10 - Company Monitor

Shell/DEA Oil

BP

Total

ExxonMobil

PKN Orlen

OMV

Chapter 11 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Energy Industry

Cross checks

Sources

Network of European Oil & Gas Sources

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BMI's European Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil and gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: