BMI's Executive Summary

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The latest Greece Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.20% of developed European regional oil demand by 2011, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption reached an estimated 14.23mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2006. It is set to rise to around 14.65mn b/d by 2011. In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region last year consumed an estimated 451bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 535bcm targeted for 2011, representing 18.7% growth. Production of an estimated 286bcm in 2006 should fall to 268bcm in 2011, which implies net imports rising from last year's estimated 165bcm to some 268bcm by the end of the period. The Greek share of gas consumption in 2006 was an estimated 0.67%, while it makes no meaningful contribution to production. By 2011, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 0.93%.

For the whole of last year, our estimates of average crude oil prices are US$61.10 for the OPEC basket, US$65.10 for Brent, US$66.20 per barrel (/bbl) for WTI and US$61.30 for Urals. For the first quarter of this year, we have adjusted our forecasts to reflect the weather-induced volatility. The OPEC basket is now expected to have averaged US$54.30/bbl, with Brent at US$57.60; WTI averaging US$58.70 and Urals at US$54.00/bbl. Our projections for 2007 as a whole are barely changed from the last quarterly report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$55/bbl. Based on last year's typical price differentials, this implies Brent at US$58.80, WTI averaging US$59.90/bbl, and Urals at US$55.30/bbl.

Greek real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 3.8% for 2007, down from 4.2% in 2006. We are assuming 3.5% growth in 2008, 3.2% in 2009, followed by 3.0% in 2010/11. While there is still some scope for medium- to long-term growth in domestic oil production, there is now much greater uncertainty over the scale and the timing of new field development. Meanwhile, the country's oil consumption is rising relatively fast (averaging 1.5% per annum) and is expected to reach 469,000b/d in 2011. By 2011, our estimates suggest gas consumption of at least 5bcm, all of which will be imported.

The long-term political risk assessment for Greece is 92.5, which is the highest among the BMI universe of developed European markets. The score is well above the global average of 65.5 and the regional average of 85.6. The long-term economic risk rating of 76.8 is well above the global average of 60.9, and below only Norway in developed Europe. The regional average is 72.3. The business environment rating for Greece is 68.7, ahead of the UK, Italy, France and Germany. The regional average is 66.3.

Greece has a partly privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, featuring participation by domestic companies and foreign exploration companies. Downstream oil is dominated by partly state-owned Hellenic Petroleum (HP), but also features international oil company (IOC) involvement. The gas and power sectors are still heavily state influenced.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - Regional Market Overview

Developed Markets

Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d)

Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)

Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)

Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm)

Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm)

Greece

Chapter 3 - Greece Business Environment

Political View

Economic View

Business Environment View

Legal Framework/Red Tape

Foreign Direct Investment

Tax Regime

Chapter 4 - Oil Market Outlook

Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2006

Revised Forecasts

Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter 5 - Regional Supply and Demand

North West & Mediterranean Europe

Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Developed Europe

Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Developed Europe

Chapter 6 - Global Picture

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)

Chapter 7 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Oil and Gas Reserves

Oil Supply and Demand

Gas Supply and Demand

Refining and Oil Products Trade

Revenues/Import Costs

Table: Greece Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts

Other Energy

Table: Greece Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts

Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Chapter 8 - Greece Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Economic Growth

Chapter 9 - Country Snapshot: Greece Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Chapter 10 - Regional Case Study – Norsk Hydro

Table: Norsk Hydro Statistics

Chapter 11 - Competitive Landscape

Executive Summary

Table: Key Players – Greece Oil And Gas Sector

Overview/State Role

Table: Key Downstream Players

Chapter 12 - Company Monitor

BP

DEPA

Chapter 13 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Energy Industry

Cross checks

Sources

Chapter 14 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Wages (ave labour force per annum), US$ PPP

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Network of European Oil & Gas Sources

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BMI's European Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil and gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: