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BMI's Executive Summary[TOP]
The latest Greece Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.20% of developed European regional oil demand by 2011, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption reached an estimated 14.23mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2006. It is set to rise to around 14.65mn b/d by 2011. In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region last year consumed an estimated 451bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 535bcm targeted for 2011, representing 18.7% growth. Production of an estimated 286bcm in 2006 should fall to 268bcm in 2011, which implies net imports rising from last year's estimated 165bcm to some 268bcm by the end of the period. The Greek share of gas consumption in 2006 was an estimated 0.67%, while it makes no meaningful contribution to production. By 2011, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 0.93%. For the whole of last year, our estimates of average crude oil prices are US$61.10 for the OPEC basket, US$65.10 for Brent, US$66.20 per barrel (/bbl) for WTI and US$61.30 for Urals. For the first quarter of this year, we have adjusted our forecasts to reflect the weather-induced volatility. The OPEC basket is now expected to have averaged US$54.30/bbl, with Brent at US$57.60; WTI averaging US$58.70 and Urals at US$54.00/bbl. Our projections for 2007 as a whole are barely changed from the last quarterly report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$55/bbl. Based on last year's typical price differentials, this implies Brent at US$58.80, WTI averaging US$59.90/bbl, and Urals at US$55.30/bbl. Greek real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 3.8% for 2007, down from 4.2% in 2006. We are assuming 3.5% growth in 2008, 3.2% in 2009, followed by 3.0% in 2010/11. While there is still some scope for medium- to long-term growth in domestic oil production, there is now much greater uncertainty over the scale and the timing of new field development. Meanwhile, the country's oil consumption is rising relatively fast (averaging 1.5% per annum) and is expected to reach 469,000b/d in 2011. By 2011, our estimates suggest gas consumption of at least 5bcm, all of which will be imported. The long-term political risk assessment for Greece is 92.5, which is the highest among the BMI universe of developed European markets. The score is well above the global average of 65.5 and the regional average of 85.6. The long-term economic risk rating of 76.8 is well above the global average of 60.9, and below only Norway in developed Europe. The regional average is 72.3. The business environment rating for Greece is 68.7, ahead of the UK, Italy, France and Germany. The regional average is 66.3. Greece has a partly privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, featuring participation by domestic companies and foreign exploration companies. Downstream oil is dominated by partly state-owned Hellenic Petroleum (HP), but also features international oil company (IOC) involvement. The gas and power sectors are still heavily state influenced. |
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Contents[TOP] Chapter 1 - Executive SummaryChapter 2 - Regional Market OverviewDeveloped Markets Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d) Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm) Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm) Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm) Greece Chapter 3 - Greece Business EnvironmentPolitical View Economic View Business Environment View Legal Framework/Red Tape Foreign Direct Investment Tax Regime Chapter 4 - Oil Market OutlookTable: Crude Price Forecasts 2006 Revised Forecasts Table: Oil Price Forecasts Chapter 5 - Regional Supply and DemandNorth West & Mediterranean Europe Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Developed Europe Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Developed Europe Chapter 6 - Global PictureTable: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) Chapter 7 - Industry Forecast ScenarioOil and Gas Reserves Oil Supply and Demand Gas Supply and Demand Refining and Oil Products Trade Revenues/Import Costs Table: Greece Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts Other Energy Table: Greece Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario Chapter 8 - Greece Macroeconomic OutlookTable: Economic Growth Chapter 9 - Country Snapshot: Greece Demographic DataSection 1: Population: Table: Demographic Indicators (2005) Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown Section 2: Education & Healthcare Table: Education Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics Table: Healthcare: Expenditure Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power Table: Employment Indicators Table: Consumption and Stratification Chapter 10 - Regional Case Study – Norsk HydroTable: Norsk Hydro Statistics Chapter 11 - Competitive LandscapeExecutive Summary Table: Key Players – Greece Oil And Gas Sector Overview/State Role Table: Key Downstream Players Chapter 12 - Company MonitorBP DEPA Chapter 13 - BMI Forecast ModellingHow we generate our industry forecasts Energy Industry Cross checks Sources Chapter 14 - Appendix: Regional Demographic DataWages (ave labour force per annum), US$ PPP Population Household Spending Per Capita, US$ Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP Market Size, GDP, US$bn
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Network of European Oil & Gas Sources[TOP] BMI's European Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil and gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: |
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