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BMI's Executive Summary[TOP]
The latest Hungary Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.76% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2011, while providing less than 0.2% of supply. CEE regional oil demand rose to an estimated 5.21mn barrels per day (b/d) last year and should average 5.35mn b/d in 2007, before reaching 5.97mn b/d by 2011. Production of an estimated 12.41mn b/d last year is forecast to reach 15.22mn b/d by 2011. CEE gas consumption in 2006 was an estimated 587bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 715bcm targeted for 2011. Production last year of an estimated 680bcm should reach 758bcm by the end of the period. Hungary's share of consumption in 2006 was an estimated 2.39%, which is likely to have fallen to 2.24% by 2011. Its contribution to gas production is not significant, with no improvement expected over the forecast period. For the whole of last year, our estimates of average crude oil prices are US$61.10 for the OPEC basket, US$65.10 for Brent, US$66.20 per barrel (/bbl) for WTI and US$61.30 for Urals. For the first quarter of this year, we have adjusted our forecasts to reflect the weather-induced volatility. The OPEC basket is now expected to have averaged US$54.30/bbl, with Brent at US$57.60; WTI averaging US$58.70 and Urals at US$54.00/bbl. Our projections for 2007 as a whole are barely changed from the last quarterly report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$55/bbl. Based on last year's typical price differentials, this implies Brent at US$58.80, WTI averaging US$59.90/bbl, and Urals at US$55.30/bbl. Hungarian real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 2.4% for 2007, down from 3.9% in 2006. We are assuming 2.9% growth in 2008, followed by 4.8% in 2009, 4.6% in 2010 and 4.4% in 2011. Hungarian oil consumption has fallen from 198,000b/d in 1990 to an estimated 153,000b/d in 2006. We are now expecting a gradual recovery, as demand rises by 1-2% per annum, with consumption reaching 165,000b/d by 2011. Domestic production, largely in the hands of former state company MOL, is not expected to recover from the recent decline, with steady slippage leading to higher import volumes (reaching 140,000b/d by 2011). Gas demand is forecast to increase from last year's estimated 13.8bcm to around 16.0bcm (in 2011) implying net gas imports reaching 13.7bcm by the end of the forecast period. In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Hungary receives a slightly higher composite score of 33, which now ranks the country equal fifth out of 12 states included in the CEE region, alongside the Czech Republic. The country's overall business environment can be considered neutral in a regional context, thanks to moderate long-term economic risk and very little in the way of domestic upstream oil or gas resources, which limits Hungary's appeal. |
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Contents[TOP] Chapter 1 - Executive SummaryChapter 2 - SWOT AnalysisHungary Political SWOT Hungary Economic SWOT Hungary Business Environment SWOT Chapter 3 - Regional Market OverviewCentral/Eastern Europe Region Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) Hungary Chapter 4 - Business Environment RankingsHungary Central/Eastern Europe Region Chapter 5 - Hungary Business Environment RankingEconomics – Long-term Risk Politics – Long-term Risk Oil & Gas Growth Oil/Gas Reserves Licensing/Regulation Competitive Environment Political Risk Summary Economic Risk Summary Business Environment Risk Summary Legal Code/Corruption Foreign Direct Investment Tax Regime Chapter 6 - Oil Market OutlookTable: Crude Price Forecasts 2006 Revised Forecasts Table: Oil Price Forecasts Chapter 7 - Regional Supply and DemandCentral/Eastern Europe Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Central/Eastern Europe Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Central/Eastern Europe Chapter 8 - Global PictureTable: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) Chapter 9 - Industry Forecast ScenarioOil and Gas Reserves Oil Supply and Demand Gas Supply and Demand Refining and Oil Products Trade Revenues/Import Costs Table: Hungary Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts Other Energy Table: Hungary Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario Chapter 10 - Economic OutlookTable: Nominal And Real GDP Chapter 11 - Country Snapshot: Hungary Demographic DataSection 1: Population: Table: Demographic Indicators (2005) Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown Section 2: Education & Healthcare Table: Education Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics Table: Healthcare: Expenditure Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power Table: Employment Indicators Table: Consumption and Stratification Table: Wages per year Chapter 12 - Regional Case StudyEmerging Player Table: Lukoil Investment* Chapter 13 - Competitive LandscapeExecutive Summary Table: Key Players – Hungary Oil & Gas Sector Overview/State Role MOL – Summary Shell – Summary Table: Key Upstream Player OMV – Summary Eni – Summary ExxonMobil – Summary Table: Key Downstream Players ConocoPhillips – Summary Lukoil – Summary Pogo/Toreador – Summary Chapter 14 - Company MonitorMOL Shell Hungary OMV Hungary Agip Hungaria Chapter 15 - BMI Forecast ModellingHow we generate our industry forecasts Energy Industry Cross checks Sources Appendix: Regional Demographic Data Wages (ave labour force per annum), US$ PPP Population Household Spending Per Capita, US$ Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP Market Size, GDP, US$bn
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Network of European Oil & Gas Sources[TOP] BMI's European Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil and gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: |
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