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BMI's Executive Summary[TOP] The Sector At A Glance Key Insights On The Oil & Gas Sector Of India The latest India Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 10.8% of Asia/Pacific regional oil demand by 2010, while providing 10.2% of supply. Asia/Pacific regional oil demand rose to 24.27mn b/d last year and should average 24.77mn b/d in 2006, before reaching 27.79mn b/d by 2010. Asia/Pacific gas consumption in 2005 was 385bcm, with demand of 602bcm targeted for 2010. Production last year of 314bcm should reach 490bcm by the end of the decade. Indias share of consumption in 2005 was 9.6%, as was its share of production. By 2010, its share of demand is forecast to be 9.3%, with the country accounting for 8.6% of supply. Assuming an uneventful Q4, we are now predicting an OPEC basket price for 2006 averaging US$61.10/bbl an increase of US$1.10 from our June forecast. This also represents a 19% rise from the FY05 average. Our forecasts for the US, Brent and Urals are US$66.40, US$65.40 and US$61.60/bbl respectively. For 2007, we continue to assume an OPEC basket price of US$50/bbl, which implies US$55.40 for the US, US$53.40 for Brent and US$49.50 for Urals. Prices are then forecast to fall by around US$5/bbl in 2008-2010, with the OPEC price averaging US$45/bbl over the period. Indian real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 8.4% for 2006, up from 7.5% in 2005. We are assuming 8.3% growth in 2007, 7.3% in 2008, followed by 7.2% in 2009 and 2010. State oil firm ONGC is charged with maximising domestic oil production, which last year averaged 784,000b/d. Thanks to its efforts and those of UK-based Cairn Energy, we see production at around 790,000b/d by 2010. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by 3-5% per annum to 2010, implying demand of 3.01mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 2.22mn b/d by the end of the decade. Gas consumption is set to rise from 36.6bcm to 53.3bcm, with domestic supply up from 30.4bcm last year to 42bcm by 2010. In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, India receives an unchanged composite score of 37, which ranks the country equal second out of 14 states included in the Asia/Pacific region, alongside Malaysia. The overall business environment can be considered very attractive in a regional context, thanks largely to a low level of perceived political risk, advanced oil industry deregulation, reasonable licensing terms and a competitive landscape involving several domestic companies and some IOCs. There is a relatively poor outlook for domestic upstream oil output growth, but significant under-exploited gas reserves. Domestic oil demand is rising fast and there is considerable IOC interest in the downstream fuels segment, although Indian privatisation policy has thrown some doubt over future oil industry FDI. |
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Contents[TOP] Chapter 1 - Executive BriefChapter 2 - SWOT AnalysisIndia Economic SWOT India Political SWOT India Business Environment SWOT Chapter 3 - Regional Market OverviewAsia Pacific Region Table 1: Asia/Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table Asia/Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) Table: Asia/Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Table: Asia/Pacific Gas Production (bcm) India Chapter 4 - Business Environment RankingsIndia Asia Pacific Region Chapter 5 - India Business Environment RankingEconomics Long-Term Risk Politics Long-Term Risk Oil & Gas Growth Oil/Gas Reserves Licensing/Regulation Competitive Environment Political Risk Summary Economic Risk Summary Business Environment Risk Summary Legal Code/Corruption Red Tape Foreign Direct Investment Tax Regime Chapter 6 - Oil Market OutlookTable Crude Price Forecasts 2006 Revised Forecasts Table Oil Price Forecasts Chapter 7 - Regional Supply and DemandAsia Pacific Table: Oil Production (000b/d) Asia Pacific Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) Asia Pacific Chapter 8 - Global PictureTable: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) Oil and Gas Reserves Oil Supply and Demand Gas Supply and Demand LNG Refining and Oil Products Trade Revenues/Import Costs Table: India Oil & Gas Historic Data & Forecasts Other Energy Table: India Other Energy Historic Data & Forecasts Key Risks to BMIs Forecast Scenario Chapter 9 - Economic OutlookTable: GDP And Population Chapter 10 - Country Snapshot: India Demographic DataSection 1: Population: Table: Demographic Indicators (2005) Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown Section 2: Education & Healthcare Table: Education Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics Table: Healthcare: Expenditure Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power Table: Employment Indicators Table: Consumption and Stratification Table: Wages per year Chapter 11 - Regional Case StudyAsian Shell Chapter 12 - Competitive LandscapeExecutive Summary Table: Key Players India Oil & Gas Sector Overview/State Role ONGC Summary Reliance Summary Table: Key Upstream Players Oil India Summary IOC Summary BP Summary GAIL Summary Table: Key Downstream Players Cairn Summary HPCL Summary BPCL Summary BG Summary Shell Summary Petronet LNG - Summary GSPC Summary Chapter 13 - Company MonitorOil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Hindustan Petroleum Company Ltd (HPCL) Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Reliance Industries Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Gas Authority of India Ltd (GAIL) Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Cairn Energy Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Chapter 14 - BMI Forecast ModellingHow We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Energy Industry Cross checks Sources Chapter 15 - Appendix: Regional Demographic DataTable- Manufacturing Wages (ave per annum), US$ Table - Population Household Spending Per Capita, US$ Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP Market Size, GDP, US$bn
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Network of Asian Oil & Gas Sources[TOP] BMI's Asian Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil & gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: |
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