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Indonesia Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Indonesia Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Indonesia.
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Indonesia’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Indonesian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Indonesia.
The Indonesia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Indonesia to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Indonesia, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Indonesia.
Business Monitor International's Indonesia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Indonesia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Indonesian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Indonesian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Indonesia.
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Indonesia Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| Indonesia Political SWOT |
| Indonesia Economic SWOT |
| Indonesia Business Environment SWOT |
Chapter - Indonesia Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Energy Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Asia Pacific Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| Indonesia Upstream Rating – Overview |
| Indonesia Upstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Indonesia Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns |
| Indonesia Downstream Rating – Overview |
| Indonesia Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Indonesia Downstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns |
Chapter - Business Environment |
| Legal Framework |
| Infrastructure |
| Labour Force |
| Foreign Investment Policy |
| Tax Regime |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil And Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| LNG |
| Refining And Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Indonesia Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Indonesia Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Energy Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: Indonesia – Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Players – Indonesian Oil & Gas Sector |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Key Downstream Players |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| Pertamina |
| Chevron Indonesia |
| ExxonMobil Indonesia |
| BP Indonesia |
| CNOOC Indonesia |
| ConocoPhillips Indonesia |
| Total – Summary |
| PetroChina – Summary |
| Petronas – Summary |
| Marathon – Summary |
| Hess – Summary |
| Inpex – Summary |
| Others – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) |
| Indonesia Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
|
Indonesia Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The latest Indonesia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.41% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 11.01% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.13mn b/d in 2008. It should average 26.50mn b/d in 2009, then rise to around 28.99mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed an estimated 443bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 577bcm is targeted for 2013. Production of an estimated 361bcm in 2008 should reach 483bcm in 2013, but implies net imports rising from an estimated 82bcm per annum in 2008 to 94bcm in 2013. Indonesia’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 8.01%, while its share of production is put at 19.36%. By 2013 its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.70%, with the country accounting for 18.00% of supply.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US$113.49/bbl recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (- 45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full-year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
Indonesian real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 5.0% for 2009, down from an estimated 6.1% in 2008. We foresee 5.2% growth in 2010, 5.4% in 2011, 5.5% in 2012, followed by 5.7% in 2013. Efforts are being made by the Indonesian authorities to encourage investment in new oil and gas supply, in order to stem the decline in production. Numerous international oil companies (IOCs) work in partnership with national oil company Pertamina and the state. We are estimating oil and gas liquids production of no more than 960,000b/d by 2013, although the country is expected to pump 975,000b/d in 2009. Consumption is forecast to increase by around 2.5% per annum to 2013. Our estimates imply demand of 1.28mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 320,000b/d by 2013. Gas production rising to an estimated 87bcm by 2013 should provide end-period export potential of 43bcm, with supply risk on the downside.
Between 2007 and 2018 we are forecasting a reduction in Indonesian oil production of 16.42%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 810,000b/d in 2018. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 22.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1.41mn b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise from around 70bcm in 2008 to a peak of 91bcm by 2012, before slipping back to 85bcm by 2018. With demand growth of 49%, this provides an export capability peaking at almost 48bcm in 2012, before falling to 35bcm by 2018, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Indonesia still ranks ninth in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, with a relatively strong resource position offset by poor output growth prospects, a deteriorating reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) and extensive state involvement. The country sits comfortably ahead of Japan and just behind Thailand, with little risk from any of the countries below. The country now ranks seventh in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its low level of retail site intensity, refinery capacity expansion plans and reasonable oil and gas demand growth outlook. It is just ahead of Pakistan and Thailand, but has the longer-term potential to challenge Australia above.
|
Indonesia Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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