Iran Oil & Gas Report
Was: $1030.00
Now: $875.00
You save: $155.00 (15%)
Iran Oil & Gas Report

The Iran Oil & Gas Report

The Iran Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Iran to end- 2017 covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Iran , refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Iran .

Business Monitor International's Iran Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits of Report

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.

Oil Market Outlook

BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to 2017 , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.

BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast

Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- 2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast

BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape & Rankings

Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles & SWOTS

Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

Iran Oil & Gas Report
Was: $1030.00
Now: $875.00
You save: $155.00 (15%)
Table of Contents

Chapter - Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis
Iran Political SWOT
Iran Economic SWOT
Iran Business Environment SWOT

Chapter - Iran Energy Market Overview

Global Oil Market Outlook
Storing Up Trouble
Revised Forecasts

Chapter - Global Oil Market Review

One-Way Traffic
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
12-Month Demand Outlook
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
12-Month Supply Outlook
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009
Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook

Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)

Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review

Regional Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply & Demand
Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Middle East LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)

Chapter - Business Environment Ranking

Middle East Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Downstream Scores
Iran Upstream Rating – Overview
Iran Upstream Rating – Potential Returns
Iran Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns
Iran Downstream Rating – Overview
Iran Downstream Rating – Potential Returns
Iran Downstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns

Chapter - Business Environment

Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime

Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario

Oil & Gas Reserves
Oil Supply & Demand
Gas Supply & Demand
LNG
Refining & Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Iran Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Iran Other Energy – Historical data & Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook

Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Iran – Economic Activity

Chapter - Competitive Landscape

Executive Summary

Table: Key Players – Iranian Oil & Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Table: Key Upstream Operators – Iran Oil & Gas Sector
Table: Key Downstream Operators – Iran Energy Sector

Chapter - Company Monitor

National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)
National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC)
Eni Iran
Total Iran
Shell Development Iran
StatoilHydro – Summary
Inpex – Summary
Lukoil – Summary
CNPC – Summary
CNOOC – Summary
PTTEP – Summary
ONGC/OVL – Summary
OMV – Summary
BP – Summary
Sinopec – Summary
Gazprom – Summary

Chapter - Glossary of Terms

Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology

Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts

Global Oil Demand
Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Global Oil Supply
Global Gas Demand
Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm)
Global Gas Supply
Table: Global Gas Production (bcm)
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm)
Iran Country Overview
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts

Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
Iran Oil & Gas Report
Was: $1030.00
Now: $875.00
You save: $155.00 (15%)
Executive Summary

BMI forecasts that Iran will account for 15.39% of Middle East (ME) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 15.63% of supply. Regional oil use of 8.24mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 10.86mn b/d in 2008. It should average 11.09mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 12.08mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 22.87mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 25.94mn b/d. It is set to rise to 28.99mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 14.63mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 15.08mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 16.91mn b/d by 2013.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 395bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 573bcm targeted for 2013, representing 45.0% growth. Production of an estimated 410bcm in 2008 should reach 617bcm in 2013 (+50.5%), which implies net exports rising to 45bcm by the end of the period. Iran in 2008 consumed an estimated 30.12% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 29.20% by 2013. It contributed an estimated 31.71% to 2008 regional gas production and, by 2013, will account for 34.84% of supply.

In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q4 2008 was an estimated US$52.53/bbl, down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% y-o-y increase over the previous year. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (- 45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.

In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.

Iranian real GDP growth is now estimated by BMI at 2.4% for 2009, following an estimated 4.7% in 2008. We are assuming 3.8% growth in 2010, 4.8% in 2011, followed by 3.8% in 2012 and 3.4% in 2013.

We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 1.68mn b/d in 2007 to 1.86mn b/d in 2013, failing to match the underlying rate of economic expansion. State-owned National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) is responsible for all upstream oil and gas activities, although there is some small-scale participation by international oil companies (IOCs) on a sub-contractor basis. The lack of large-scale IOC investment contributes to modest output growth, with crude production forecast to increase from an estimated 4.20mn b/d in 2008 to 4.53mn b/d in 2013, subject to OPEC quotas and the possible impact of any sanctions resulting from the nuclear energy debate. Gas production should reach 215bcm by 2013, up from an estimated 130bcm in 2008. Consumption is expected to rise from 119bcm to 167bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing exports of 48bcm.

Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Iranian oil production of 7.9%, with crude volumes rising towards 4.75mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period, although there could be an OPEC-induced dip in 2009. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 32.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 2.15mn b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to climb to 280bcm by the end of the period. With 2007- 2018 demand growth of 86.0%, this provides export potential rising to almost 72bcm by 2018. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.

Iran now shares fourth place with Turkey in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating. It is now eight points behind Iraq and is unlikely to make any further progress over the near term. The country’s score benefits from the region’s biggest gas reserves base and a very healthy oil reserves position. Reserves-to-production ratios (RPRs) are high, but strict government control of the upstream industry prevents Iran’s achieving a better overall score. The country is in the middle of the league table for BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with some high scores but progress further up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked fifth behind Oman and the UAE, thanks to high scores for refining capacity, oil demand, gas consumption, retail site intensity and population. The growth outlooks for oil/gas consumption and refining capacity represent relatively weak suits. Saudi Arabia is immediately behind it in the regional rankings, but there is little immediate risk of it challenging for Iran’s fifth place.

Iran Oil & Gas Report
Was: $1030.00
Now: $875.00
You save: $155.00 (15%)
Read about our other Oil & Gas Reports

Africa

Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan

Asia

Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam

Caribbean

Trinidad & Tobago

Europe

Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom

Latin America

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela

Middle East

Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates

North America

Canada and United States
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