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BMI's Executive Summary[TOP] The Sector At A Glance Key Insights On The Oil & Gas Sector Of Iran The latest Iran Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 15.36% of MEA regional oil demand by 2010, while providing 10.95% of supply. MEA regional oil demand rose to 10.7mn b/d last year and should average 10.9mn b/d in 2006, before reaching 12.2mn b/d by 2010. MEA gas consumption in 2005 was 343bcm, with demand of 533bcm targeted for 2010. Production last year of 448bcm should reach 774bcm by the end of the decade. Iran's share of consumption in 2005 was 26.0%, while its share of production was 19.4%. By 2010, its share of demand is forecast to be 23.5%, with the country accounting for 21,3% of supply. Assuming an uneventful Q4, we are now predicting an OPEC basket price for 2006 averaging US$61.10/bbl – an increase of US$1.10 from our June forecast. This also represents a 19% rise from the FY05 average. Our forecasts for the US, Brent and Urals are US$66.40, US$65.40 and US$61.60/bbl respectively. For 2007, we continue to assume an OPEC basket price of US$50/bbl, which implies US$55.40 for the US, US$53.40 for Brent and US$49.50 for Urals. Prices are then forecast to fall by around US$5/bbl in 2008-2010, with the OPEC price averaging US$45/bbl over the period. Iranian real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 5.8% for 2006, following 5.4% in 2005. We are assuming 5.5% growth in 2007-08, followed by 5.8% in 2009 and 5.7% in 2010. We expect oil demand to rise from 1.66mn b/d last year to 1.87mn b/d in 2010, failing to match the underlying rate of economic expansion. State oil company NIOC is responsible for all upstream oil and gas activities, although there is some small-scale participation by IOCs on a sub-contractor basis under Iranian buyback deals. The lack of large-scale IOC investment contributes to modest output growth, with crude production forecast to increase from 4.05mn b/d in 2005 to 4.25mn b/d in 2010, subject to OPEC quotas and the possible impact of any sanctions resulting from the nuclear energy debate. Gas production should reach 165bcm by 2010, up from 87bcm last year. Consumption is expected to rise from 88.5bcm to 125bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing exports of 40bcm. In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Iran this quarter receives a higher composite score of 25, but remains 14th of 16 countries included in the MEA region. The overall business environment is highly unattractive in a regional context, thanks largely to high levels of perceived political and economic risk, plus the country's lack of progress in terms of oil and gas industry deregulation/licensing. Iran has substantial untapped oil and gas reserves potential and is capable of delivering significant volume growth. However, opportunities for IOCs are very limited. |
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Contents[TOP] Chapter 1 - Executive SummaryChapter 2 - SWOT AnalysisIran Political SWOT Iran Economic SWOT Iran Business Environment SWOT Chapter 3 - Regional Market OverviewMiddle East/Africa Region Table: MEA Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Middle East/Africa Oil Production (000b/d) Table: Middle East/Africa Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Table: Middle East/Africa Gas Consumption (bcm) Table: Middle East/Africa Gas Production (bcm) Table: Middle East/Africa LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) Iran Chapter 4 - Business Environment RankingsIran Middle East/Africa Region Chapter 5 - Iran Business Environment RankingEconomics – Long-term Risk Politics – Long-term Risk Oil & Gas Growth Oil/Gas Reserves Licensing/Regulation Competitive Environment Political Risk Summary Economic Risk Summary Business Environment Risk Summary Legal Code/Corruption Foreign Direct Investment Tax Regime Chapter 6 - Oil Market OutlookTable: Crude Price Forecasts 2006 Revised Forecasts Table: Oil Price Forecasts Chapter 7 - Regional Supply and DemandMiddle East/Africa Table: Middle East/Africa Oil Production (000b/d) Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Middle East/Africa Chapter 8 - Global PictureTable: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) Chapter 9 - Industry Forecast ScenarioOil and Gas Reserves Oil Supply and Demand Gas Supply and Demand LNG Refining and Oil Products Trade Revenues/Import Costs Table: Iran Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts Other Energy Table: Iran Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario Chapter 10 - Economic OutlookTable: Economic Activity Chapter 11 - Country Snapshot: Iran Demographic DataSection 1: Population: Table: Demographic Indicators (2005) Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown Section 2: Education & Healthcare Table: Education Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics Table: Healthcare: Expenditure Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power Table: Employment Indicators Table: Consumption and Stratification Table: Wages per year Chapter 12 - Regional Case StudyGlobal Player With Conflicting Domestic Needs Chapter 13 - Competitive LandscapeExecutive Summary Table: Key Players – Iranian Oil & Gas Sector Overview/State Role Table: Key Upstream Operators – Iran Oil & Gas Sector Total – Summary Shell – Summary Eni – Summary Statoil – Summary Table: Key Downstream Operators – Iran Energy Sector Inpex – Summary Lukoil – Summary PTTEP/CNPC – Summary BP – Summary Chapter 14 - Company MonitorNational Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) Eni Iran Total Iran Shell Development Iran Chapter 15 - BMI Forecast ModellingHow we generate our industry forecasts Energy Industry Cross checks Sources Chapter 16 - Appendix: Regional Demographic DataThe Long View: Data Over The Economic Cycle (2000-2007) Population Household Spending Per Capita, US$ Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP Market Size, GDP, US$bn
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Network of Middle Eastern and African Oil and Gas Sources[TOP] BMI's Middle Eastern and African Oil and Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil and gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: |
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