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Iran Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Iran Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Iran .
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Iran ’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Iranian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Iran .
The Iran Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Iran to end- 2017 covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Iran , refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Iran .
Business Monitor International's Iran Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Iran to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Iranian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Iran .
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Iranian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Iran .
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to 2017 , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- 2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Iran Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| Iran Political SWOT |
| Iran Economic SWOT |
| Iran Business Environment SWOT |
Chapter - Iran Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply & Demand |
| Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Middle East LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Middle East Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| Iran Upstream Rating – Overview |
| Iran Upstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Iran Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns |
| Iran Downstream Rating – Overview |
| Iran Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Iran Downstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns |
Chapter - Business Environment |
| Legal Framework |
| Infrastructure |
| Labour Force |
| Foreign Investment Policy |
| Tax Regime |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil & Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply & Demand |
| Gas Supply & Demand |
| LNG |
| Refining & Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Iran Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Iran Other Energy – Historical data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: Iran – Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Players – Iranian Oil & Gas Sector |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Operators – Iran Oil & Gas Sector |
| Table: Key Downstream Operators – Iran Energy Sector |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) |
| National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) |
| Eni Iran |
| Total Iran |
| Shell Development Iran |
| StatoilHydro – Summary |
| Inpex – Summary |
| Lukoil – Summary |
| CNPC – Summary |
| CNOOC – Summary |
| PTTEP – Summary |
| ONGC/OVL – Summary |
| OMV – Summary |
| BP – Summary |
| Sinopec – Summary |
| Gazprom – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) |
| Iran Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How we generate our industry forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
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Iran Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
BMI forecasts that Iran will account for 15.39% of Middle East (ME) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 15.63% of supply. Regional oil use of 8.24mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 10.86mn b/d in 2008. It should average 11.09mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 12.08mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 22.87mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 25.94mn b/d. It is set to rise to 28.99mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 14.63mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 15.08mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 16.91mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 395bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 573bcm targeted for 2013, representing 45.0% growth. Production of an estimated 410bcm in 2008 should reach 617bcm in 2013 (+50.5%), which implies net exports rising to 45bcm by the end of the period. Iran in 2008 consumed an estimated 30.12% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 29.20% by 2013. It contributed an estimated 31.71% to 2008 regional gas production and, by 2013, will account for 34.84% of supply.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q4 2008 was an estimated US$52.53/bbl, down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% y-o-y increase over the previous year. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (- 45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
Iranian real GDP growth is now estimated by BMI at 2.4% for 2009, following an estimated 4.7% in 2008. We are assuming 3.8% growth in 2010, 4.8% in 2011, followed by 3.8% in 2012 and 3.4% in 2013.
We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 1.68mn b/d in 2007 to 1.86mn b/d in 2013, failing to match the underlying rate of economic expansion. State-owned National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) is responsible for all upstream oil and gas activities, although there is some small-scale participation by international oil companies (IOCs) on a sub-contractor basis. The lack of large-scale IOC investment contributes to modest output growth, with crude production forecast to increase from an estimated 4.20mn b/d in 2008 to 4.53mn b/d in 2013, subject to OPEC quotas and the possible impact of any sanctions resulting from the nuclear energy debate. Gas production should reach 215bcm by 2013, up from an estimated 130bcm in 2008. Consumption is expected to rise from 119bcm to 167bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing exports of 48bcm.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Iranian oil production of 7.9%, with crude volumes rising towards 4.75mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period, although there could be an OPEC-induced dip in 2009. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 32.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 2.15mn b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to climb to 280bcm by the end of the period. With 2007- 2018 demand growth of 86.0%, this provides export potential rising to almost 72bcm by 2018. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Iran now shares fourth place with Turkey in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating. It is now eight points behind Iraq and is unlikely to make any further progress over the near term. The country’s score benefits from the region’s biggest gas reserves base and a very healthy oil reserves position. Reserves-to-production ratios (RPRs) are high, but strict government control of the upstream industry prevents Iran’s achieving a better overall score. The country is in the middle of the league table for BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with some high scores but progress further up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked fifth behind Oman and the UAE, thanks to high scores for refining capacity, oil demand, gas consumption, retail site intensity and population. The growth outlooks for oil/gas consumption and refining capacity represent relatively weak suits. Saudi Arabia is immediately behind it in the regional rankings, but there is little immediate risk of it challenging for Iran’s fifth place.
|
Iran Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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