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Italy Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Italy Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Italy .
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Italy ’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Italian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Italy .
The Italy Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Italy to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Italy , refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Italy .
Business Monitor International's Italy Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Italian oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Italy to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Italian oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Italian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Italy .
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Italian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Italy .
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Italy Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| Italy Political SWOT |
| Italy Economic SWOT |
Chapter - Italy Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Energy Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil And Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| LNG |
| Refining And Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Italy Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Italy Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: Italy – Macroeconomic Forecasts |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Players – Italian Energy Sector |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Key Downstream Players |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| Eni |
| Royal Dutch Shell |
| ERG |
| Po Valley Energy |
| Enel – Summary |
| Petroceltic – Summary |
| Mediterranean Oil and Gas – Summary |
| Total – Summary |
| Others – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: Developed Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm) |
| Italy Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
|
Italy Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
BMI forecasts that Italy will account for 12.36% of developed European regional oil demand by 2013, while contributing 4.08% to supply. In developed Europe, overall oil consumption reached an estimated 13.75mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2008. It is set to rise to around 14.04mn b/d by 2013. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.97mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 5.00mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.80mn b/d by 2013. Oil imports are growing steadily, because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2008, net crude imports were an estimated 8.75mn b/d. By 2013, they are expected to have reached 10.24mn b/d.
In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2008 consumed an estimated 440bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 490bcm targeted for 2013, representing 11.2% growth. Production of an estimated 269bcm in 2007 should rise to 279bcm in 2013, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2008 level of 171bcm to some 211bcm by the end of the period. Italy’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 17.92%, while it contributed around 3.37% to production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 18.14%, with a 2.86% contribution to regional supply.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full-year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (- 45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full-year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
Italian real GDP is forecast by BMI to fall by 2.4% in 2009, compared with the estimated 0.6% decline in 2008. We are assuming an average annual growth rate of 0.7% between 2009 and 2013. By 2013, we expect to see the country consuming 1.74mn b/d of oil. A steady rise in near-term domestic oil production is expected. We are assuming oil production of 180,000b/d by 2010, but imports are set to reach 1.58mn b/d by 2013. Use of gas in power generation is the key to demand growth and consumption looks set to reach 89.2bcm by 2013. Imports are likely to have reached 81.2bcm at this stage.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in Italian oil production of 1.6%, with output peaking at 180,000b/d in 2010 before slipping to 120,000b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given oil consumption forecast to decrease by 2.69%, imports can be expected to fall from an estimated 1.59mn b/d in 2008 to 1.58mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2008 level of 78.5bcm to 98.5bcm by 2018. Production of an estimated 8.9bcm in 2008 is expected to fall to 7.0bcm by 2018, requiring imports up from 69.6bcm to 91.5bcm, in the form of pipeline gas and LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Our long-term political score for Italy is 80.3 (out of 100), below the developed markets average of 85.8. Italy has the third-lowest political risk rating of countries in the BMI developed markets universe. Our long-term economic risk rating is 66.1, which compares with a developed markets average of 68.9. It is the second-lowest in the group of countries, ahead of Greece. Italy has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a significant upstream oil and gas segment featuring domestic and foreign operators. Downstream oil is highly competitive and involves a mixture of international oil companies (IOCs) and domestic companies. Both the gas and power markets are privatised and open to competition.
|
Italy Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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