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Libya Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Libya Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Libya.
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Libya’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Libyan oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Libya.
The Libya Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Libya to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Libya, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Libya.
Business Monitor International's Libya Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Libyan oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Libya to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Libyan oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Libyan Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Libya.
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Libyan Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Libya.
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Libya Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| Libya Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Africa Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Africa Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Africa Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Africa Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Africa Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Africa LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Africa Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| Libya Upstream Rating – Overview |
| Libya Upstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Libya Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
| Libya Downstream Rating – Overview |
| Libya Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Libya Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
Chapter - Risk Summary |
| Political |
| Economic |
| Business Environment |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil and Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply and Demand |
| Gas Supply and Demand |
| LNG |
| Refining and Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Libya Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Libya Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: Libya - Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Players – Libyan Oil & Gas Sector |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Key Downstream Player |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| National Oil Corporation (NOC) |
| Eni North Africa |
| Total Libya |
| OMV of Libya Limited |
| Repsol YPF Libya |
| BP – Summary |
| ExxonMobil – Summary |
| Occidental – Summary |
| ConocoPhillips – Summary |
| Marathon – Summary |
| Hess – Summary |
| Woodside – Summary |
| Chevron – Summary |
| StatoilHydro – Summary |
| Shell – Summary |
| Petro-Canada – Summary |
| PGNiG – Summary |
| Gazprom – Summary |
| RWE – Summary |
| Others – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: Africa Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: Africa Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: Africa Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: Africa Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: Africa Gas Production (bcm) |
| Libya Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How we generate our industry forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
|
Libya Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The latest Libya Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 7.56% of African regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 16.78% of supply. African regional oil use of 2.98mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.65mn b/d in 2008. It should average 3.73mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 4.15mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 7.84mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 10.46mn b/d. It is set to rise to 12.52mn b/d by 2013. South Africa in 2008 accounted for an estimated 0.13% of regional oil supply, and its market share is expected to be 0.13% by the end of the forecast period. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.86mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 6.80mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 8.36mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 106bcm, with demand of 182bcm targeted for 2013. Production of an estimated 214bcm in 2008 should reach 358bcm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 107bcm in 2008 to 176bcm by the end of the period. Libya in 2008 consumed an estimated 6.05% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 4.16% by 2013. It contributed an estimated 7.94% to 2008 regional gas production and by 2013 will account for 9.78% of supply.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (- 45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
Libyan real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 5.4% for 2009, unchanged from the estimated 5.4% in 2008. We are assuming 6.0% growth in 2010, 6.3% in 2011, followed by 6.7% in 2012, and 4.5% in 2013. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 268,000b/d in 2008 to 314,000b/d in 2013, representing 3.0% annual growth. State-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) accounts for some 40% of oil production and all gas production, but it has a growing number of international oil company (IOC) partners contributing to a forecast rise in oil production from an estimated 1.85mn b/d in 2008 to 2.10mn b/d by 2013. The state itself has far more ambitious volume goals that may be frustrated by OPEC quota policy. Gas production should reach 35bcm by 2013, up from an estimated 17bcm in 2008. Consumption is expected to rise from around 6.6bcm to 7.6bcm by the end of the forecast period, allowing exports of 27.4bcm.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Libyan oil and gas liquids production of 32.6%, with volumes rising steadily to 2.45mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 46.7%, with growth slowing to an assumed 4.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 382,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise to 60bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by almost 47% between 2007 and 2018, there should be export potential increasing to around 51bcm, via pipeline and in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Libya continues to occupy first place, above Republic of Congo (RoC), in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, with a comfortable margin of four points. The country’s score benefits from its proven oil reserves, and a region-topping oil reserves-to-production ratio (RPR). The competitive landscape features numerous non-state companies, while licensing terms are generally good. However, country risk factors undermine some of the hydrocarbons-specific strength. The country is in the middle of the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, with a few high scores but near-term progress up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked fifth thanks to poor country risk factors, a largely state-controlled industry and moderate oil and gas demand growth prospects.
|
Libya Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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