BMI's Executive Summary

[TOP]

The Sector At A Glance

Key Insights On The Oil & Gas Sector Of Libya

The latest Libya Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 34% of MEA regional oil demand by 2010, while providing 4.90% of supply. MEA regional oil demand rose to 10.7mn b/d last year and should average 10.9mn b/d in 2006, before reaching 12.2mn b/d by 2010. MEA gas consumption in 2005 was 343bcm, with demand of 533bcm targeted for 2010. Production last year of 448bcm should reach 774bcm by the end of the decade. Libya’s share of consumption in 2005 was 1.75%, while its contribution to production was 2.68%. By 2010, its share of demand is forecast to be 1.31%, with the country accounting for 2.97% of supply.

Assuming an uneventful Q4, we are now predicting an OPEC basket price for 2006 averaging US$61.10/bbl – an increase of US$1.10 from our June forecast. This also represents a 19% rise from the FY05 average. Our forecasts for the US, Brent and Urals are US$66.40, US$65.40 and US$61.60/bbl respectively. For 2007, we continue to assume an OPEC basket price of US$50/bbl, which implies US$55.40 for the US, US$53.40 for Brent and US$49.50 for Urals. Prices are then forecast to fall by around US$5/bbl in 2008-2010, with the OPEC price averaging US$45/bbl over the period.

Libyan real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 5.5% for 2006, following 6.0% in 2005. We are assuming 4.8% growth in 2007 and 5.9% in 2008, followed by 5.5% in 2009 and 7.9% in 2010. We expect oil demand to rise from 246,000b/d last year to 285,000b/d in 2010, representing 3.0% annual growth. Stateowned NOC last year accounted for 47% of oil production and all gas production, but it has a growing number of IOC partners contributing to a forecast rise in oil production from 1.7mn b/d last year to 1.9mn b/d by 2010 – although the state has far more ambitious volume goals that may be frustrated by OPEC quota policy. Gas production should reach 23bcm by 2010, up from 11.7bcm last year. Consumption is expected to rise from 5.9bcm to 6.9bcm by the end of the forecast period, allowing exports of 16.1bcm.

In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Libya this quarter receives a one-point lower composite score of 42, and the country has fallen to third out of 16 states included in the MEA region. Libya's overall business environment can be considered highly attractive in a regional context, thanks largely to low levels of short-term economic risk, a moderate political risk profile, and the country's abundant oil and gas resources that are being developed and produced in partnership with IOCs.

Contents

[TOP]

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - Regional Market Overview

Middle East/Africa Region

Table: MEA Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Middle East/Africa Oil Production (000b/d)

Table: Middle East/Africa Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)

Table: Middle East/Africa Gas Consumption (bcm)

Table: Middle East/Africa Gas Production (bcm)

Table: Middle East/Africa LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)

Libya

Chapter 3 - Business Environment Rankings

Libya

Middle East/Africa Region

Chapter 4 - Libya Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Short-term Risk

Politics – Long-term Risk

Oil & Gas Growth

Oil/Gas Reserves

Licensing/Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 5 - Business Environment Overview

Political Risk Summary

Economic Risk Summary

Business Environment Risk Summary

Chapter 6 - Oil Market Outlook

Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2006

Revised Forecasts

Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter 7 - Regional Supply and Demand

Middle East/Africa

Table: Middle East/Africa Oil Production (000b/d)

Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Middle East/Africa

Chapter 8 - Global Picture

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)

Chapter 9 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Oil and Gas Reserves

Oil Supply and Demand

Gas Supply and Demand

LNG

Refining and Oil Products Trade

Revenues/Import Costs

Table: Libya Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts

Other Energy

Table: Libya Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts

Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Chapter 10 - Economic Outlook

Table: Libya: Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts

Chapter 11 - Country Snapshot: Libya Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Chapter 12 - Regional Case Study

Global Player With Conflicting Domestic Needs

Chapter 13 - Competitive Landscape

Executive Summary

Table: Key Players – Libyan Oil & Gas Sector

Overview/State Role

Eni – Summary

RepsolYPF – Summary

OMV – Summary

Table: Key Upstream Players

Total – Summary

Occidental – Summary

ConocoPhillips – Summary

Marathon – Summary

Hess – Summary

Table: Key Downstream Player

Woodside – Summary

Chevron – Summary

Statoil – Summary

Shell – Summary

Others – Summary

Chapter 14 - Company Monitor

National Oil Company (NOC)

Eni North Africa

Company Analysis

SWOT Analysis

Total Libya

Company Analysis

SWOT Analysis

OMV of Libya Limited

Company Analysis

SWOT Analysis

RepsolYPF Libya

Company Analysis

SWOT Analysis

Chapter 15 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Energy Industry

Cross checks

Sources

Chapter 16 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

The Long View: Data Over The Economic Cycle (2000-2007)

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Network of Middle Eastern and African Oil and Gas Sources

[TOP]

BMI's Middle Eastern and African Oil and Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil and gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: