BMI's Executive Summary

[TOP]

The latest Malaysia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.92% of Asia/Pacific regional oil demand by 2011, while providing 8.79% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.4mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 24.84mn b/d last year. It should average 25.68mn b/d in 2007 and then rise to around 29.04mn b/d by 2011.

In terms of natural gas, the region last year consumed 409bcm, with demand of 620bcm targeted for 2011, representing growth of 51.4% between 2006 and 2011. Production of 329bcm in 2006 should reach 478bcm in 2011 (+45.0%), but implies net imports rising from 80bcm per annum to 142bcm. Malaysia’s share of gas consumption in 2006 was 9.83%, while its share of production was 18.27%. By 2011, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.10%, with the country accounting for 20.93% of supply.

Global oil demand growth is expected to be around 2.0% this year, with Asia Pacific and the CEE regions dominating. This is an encouraging rate of market expansion, given a relatively uncertain economic picture and high commodity prices. Our oil price projections for 2007 as a whole are revised upwards from the last quarterly report. We are now assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$59 per barrel, compared with the US$55 estimate provided by our last two quarterly reports. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$62.83, WTI averaging US$61.25/bbl, and Urals at US$59.42/bbl.

Malaysian real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is forecast by BMI at 5.5% for 2007, down from 5.9% in 2006. We are assuming 5.2% growth in 2008, 5.1% in 2009, followed by 5.4% in 2010 and 5.1% in 2011. State-owned Petronas operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs) under a production sharing system that we believe will result in oil production of around 700,000b/d by 2011. Consumption is forecast to increase by up to 2% per annum to 2011, implying demand of 556,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Malaysia’s gas exports are set to rise from last year’s estimated 20bcm to 56bcm, with production soaring from 60bcm to 100bcm between 2006 and 2011.

In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Malaysia receives a lower composite score of 35, which now ranks the country equal third out of 14 states included in the Asia Pacific region, alongside India. The overall business environment can be considered attractive in a regional context, thanks to reasonable performance in most categories.

The country has a relatively low level of perceived economic risk, reasonable oil and gas resources, an above-average licensing and regulatory regime and a benign competitive framework. Political risk is seen as being around the regional average, with unexciting oil and gas output growth prospects. Government control and direct involvement remains at a high level and, while remaining popular with a variety of IOCs, the country is at risk of lower oil industry foreign direct investment (FDI) as countries such as China start to dominate the Asian energy sector.

Contents

[TOP]

BMI's Country Oil and Gas Reports - Sample Contents Page

[TOP]

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Malaysia Economic SWOT

Malaysia Political SWOT

Malaysia Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 3 - Regional Market Overview

Asia/Pacific Region

Table: Asia/Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Asia/Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)

Table: Asia/Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)

Table: Asia/Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)

Table: Asia/Pacific Gas Production (bcm)

Table: Asia/Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)

Malaysia

Chapter 4 - Business Environment Rankings

Malaysia

Asia/Pacific Region

Chapter 5 - Malaysia Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-Term Risk

Politics – Long-Term Risk

Oil & Gas Growth

Oil/Gas Reserves

Licensing/Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 6 - Business Environment Overview

Political Risk Summary

Economic Risk Summary

Business Environment Risk Summary

Legal Code/Corruption

Labour Force

Foreign Direct Investment

Tax Regime

Chapter 7 - Oil Market Outlook

Assessing The Risks

Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2007

Revised Forecasts

Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter 8 - Regional Supply and Demand

Asia/Pacific

Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Asia/Pacific

Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Asia/Pacific

Chapter 9 - Global Picture

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)

Chapter 10 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Oil and Gas Reserves

Oil Supply and Demand

Gas Supply And Demand

LNG

Refining And Oil Products Trade

Revenues/Import Costs

Table: Malaysia Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts

Other Energy

Table: Malaysia Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts

Key Risks To Forecast Scenario

Chapter 11 - Economic Outlook

Table: GDP, Population & Output

Chapter 12 - Regional Case Study – ConocoPhillips

Table: Exploration And Production 2005

Table: Commercial Realisation – Refining And Marketing 2005

Chapter 13 - Competitive Landscape

Executive Summary

Table: Key Players – Malaysian Energy Sector

Overview/State Role

Shell – Summary

ExxonMobil – Summary

Table: Key Upstream Producers

BP – Summary

LTAT – Summary

Chevron – Summary

Murphy – Summary

Table: Key Downstream Players

Hess – Summary

Talisman – Summary

ConocoPhillips – Summary

Chapter 14 - Company Monitor

Petroliam Nasional-Bhd (Petronas)

ExxonMobil Sdn Bhd

Shell Malaysia Ltd

ConocoPhillips

Chapter 15 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Energy Industry

Cross checks

Sources

Network of Asian Oil & Gas Sources

[TOP]

BMI's Asian Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil & gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: