The Oman Oil & Gas Report

    • Independent 5-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Oman.
    • Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Oman’s oil and gas industry.
    • Competitive intelligence, Omani oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Oman.

The Oman Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2007, and features latest available data and forecasts for Oman to end-2011 covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Oman, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Oman.

Business Monitor International's Oman Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Omani oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits of Report

    • Benchmark BMI’s Independent 5-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Oman to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Omani oil and gas market.
    • Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Omani Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Oman.
    • Exploit The Latest Competitive Omani Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Oman.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.

Oil Market Outlook

BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to 2011, monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.

BMI 5-Year Industry Forecast

Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

  • Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
  • Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
  • Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
  • Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
  • Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
  • Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
  • Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)

BMI 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast

BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape & Rankings

Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles & SWOTS

Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

BMI's Executive Summary

[TOP]

The Sector At A Glance

Key Insights On The Oil & Gas Sector Of Oman

The latest Oman Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.58% of MEA regional oil demand by 2010, while providing 2.01% of supply. MEA regional oil demand rose to 10.7mn b/d last year and should average 10.9mn b/d in 2006, before reaching 12.2mn b/d by 2010. MEA gas consumption in 2005 was 343bcm, with demand of 533bcm targeted for 2010. Production last year of 448bcm should reach 774bcm by the end of the decade. Oman’s share of consumption in 2005 was 2.04%, while its contribution to production was 3.75%. By 2010, its share of demand is forecast to be 1.69%, with the country accounting for 4.13% of supply.

Assuming an uneventful Q4, we are now predicting an OPEC basket price for 2006 averaging US$61.10/bbl – an increase of US$1.10 from our June forecast. This also represents a 19% rise from the FY05 average. Our forecasts for the US, Brent and Urals are US$66.40, US$65.40 and US$61.60/bbl respectively. For 2007, we continue to assume an OPEC basket price of US$50/bbl, which implies US$55.40 for the US, US$53.40 for Brent and US$49.50 for Urals. Prices are then forecast to fall by around US$5/bbl in 2008-2010, with the OPEC price averaging US$45/bbl over the period.

Oman’s real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 4.3% for 2006, following 3.2% in 2005. We are assuming 4.2% growth in 2007 and 3.4% in 2008, followed by 3.2% in 2009 and 4.4% in 2010. We expect oil demand to rise from 56,000b/d last year to 71,000b/d in 2010, representing 5.0% annual growth that exceeds our underlying economic assumptions. Partly state-owned PDO accounts for more than 90% of the oil and gas produced in the country, but relies on IOCs to maintain volumes. Our estimates assume 780,000b/d of 2006 oil and liquids production, followed by a short-lived rally back to the 800,000b/d level in 2008/09, before volumes again sink to 780,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. However, there is a high risk that production will stabilise at a level nearer 750,000b/d. Gas production should reach 32bcm by 2010, up from 17.5bcm last year. Consumption is expected to rise from 7.2bcm to 9.1bcm by the end of the forecast period, allowing exports of 22.9bcm.

In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Oman this quarter receives a slightly lower composite score of 31, which now ranks the country equal eighth out of 16 states included in the MEA region, alongside Algeria, Bahrain and Egypt. The country's overall business environment can be considered pretty neutral in a regional context, thanks largely to a low level of perceived political risk, being offset by higher economic risk, while Oman's sensible licensing/regulatory regime and a reasonably competitive environment is let down by a lack of substantial oil or gas upside potential.

Contents

[TOP]

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Oman Political SWOT

Oman Economic SWOT

Oman Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 3 - Regional Market Overview

Middle East/Africa Region

Table: MEA Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Middle East/Africa Oil Production (000b/d)

Table: Middle East/Africa Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)

Table: Middle East/Africa Gas Consumption (bcm)

Table: Middle East/Africa Gas Production (bcm)

Table: Middle East/Africa LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)

Oman

Chapter 4 - Business Environment Rankings

Oman

Middle East/Africa Region

Chapter 5 - Oman Business Environment Ranking

Economics – long-term risk

Politics – long-term risk

Oil & Gas Growth

Oil/Gas Reserves

Licensing/Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 6 - Business Environment Overview

Political Risk Summary

Economic Risk Summary

Business Environment Risk Summary

Legal Framework/Corruption

Foreign Direct Investment

Tax Regime

Chapter 7 - Oil Market Outlook

Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2006

Revised Forecasts

Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter 8 - Regional Supply and Demand

Middle East/Africa

Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Middle East/Africa

Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Middle East/Africa

Chapter 9 - Global Picture

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)

Chapter 10 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Oil and Gas Reserves

Oil Supply and Demand

Gas Supply and Demand

LNG

Refining and Oil Products Trade

Revenues/Import Costs

Table: Oman Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts

Other Energy

Table: Oman Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts

Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Chapter 11 - Economic Outlook

Table: Oman: Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts

Chapter 12 - Country Snapshot: Oman Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Chapter 13 - Regional Case Study

Global Player With Conflicting Domestic Needs

Chapter 14 - Competitive Landscape

Executive Summary

Table: Key Companies in Oman Energy Sector

Overview/State Role

Shell – Summary

OOC – Summary

Table: Key Upstream Players

Total – Summary

CNPC/Sinopec – Summary

EnCana – Summary

Table: Key Downstream Players

Occidental – Summary

PTTEP – Summary

Chapter 15 - Company Monitor

Petroleum Development Oman (PDO)

Shell Oman

Company Analysis

SWOT Analysis

Oman Oil Company (OOC)

Company Analysis

SWOT Analysis

Chapter 16 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Energy Industry

Cross checks

Sources

Chapter 17 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

The Long View: Data Over The Economic Cycle (2000-2007)

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Network of Middle Eastern and African Oil and Gas Sources

[TOP]

BMI's Middle Eastern and African Oil and Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil and gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:

 

Read about our other Oil & Gas Reports

Asia Europe Middle East & Africa Americas
UK
UAE
US
[top]

 

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, Blackfriars, London EC4V 3DS, UK

BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 24 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.