The Pakistan Oil & Gas Report

    • Independent 5-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Pakistan.
    • Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Pakistan’s oil and gas industry.
    • Competitive intelligence, Pakistani oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Pakistan.

The Pakistan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2007, and features latest available data and forecasts for Pakistan to end-2011 covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Pakistan, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Pakistan.

Business Monitor International's Pakistan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Pakistani oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits of Report

    • Benchmark BMI’s Independent 5-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Pakistan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Pakistani oil and gas market.
    • Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Pakistani Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
    • Exploit The Latest Competitive Pakistani Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Pakistan.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.

Oil Market Outlook

BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to 2011, monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.

BMI 5-Year Industry Forecast

Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

  • Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
  • Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
  • Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
  • Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
  • Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
  • Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
  • Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)

BMI 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast

BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape & Rankings

Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles & SWOTS

Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

BMI's Executive Summary

[TOP]

Executive Summary

The latest Pakistan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 1.54% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2011, while providing 0.79% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.4mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 24.84mn b/d last year. It should average 25.68mn b/d in 2007 and then rise to around 29.04mn b/d by 2011. In terms of natural gas, the region last year consumed 409bcm, with demand of 620bcm targeted for 2011, representing growth of 51.4% between 2006 and 2011. Production of 329bcm in 2006 should reach 478bcm in 2011 (+45.0%), but implies net imports rising from 80bcm per annum to 142bcm. Pakistan's share of gas consumption in 2006 was an estimated 7.50%, while its share of production was 9.32%. By 2011, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.98%, with the country accounting for 9.42% of supply.

Global oil demand growth is expected to be around 2.0% this year, with Asia Pacific and the CEE regions dominating. This is an encouraging rate of market expansion, given a relatively uncertain economic picture and high commodity prices. Our oil price projections for 2007 as a whole are revised upwards from the last quarterly report. We are now assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$59 per barrel, compared with the US$55 estimate provided by our last two quarterly reports. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$62.83, WTI averaging US$61.25/bbl, and Urals at US$59.42/bbl.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2007 is now forecast by BMI at 6.4%, down from 6.6% last year. In 2008, growth is put at 6.6%, followed by 6.7% in 2009/10 and 6.8% in 2011. Several statecontrolled oil and gas companies are in the throes of privatisation, and already work with IOCs in the upstream segment. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 63,000b/d by 2011, with the country able to pump an estimated 55,000b/d this year. Consumption is forecast to increase by around 4% per annum to 2011, implying demand of 448,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 385,000b/d by 2011. Gas demand is set to rise from 30.7bcm last year to 49.4bcm by 2011.

In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Pakistan receives an unchanged composite score of 30 which now ranks the country equal ninth out of 14 states included in the Asia Pacific region, alongside the Philippines. The overall business environment can be considered unattractive in a regional context, thanks to a high level of perceived economic and political risk offsetting better-than-average volume growth. Privatisation is now moving ahead rapidly, with an improving regulatory regime and a better competitive landscape. Large-scale opportunities for IOCs are limited, which means Pakistan will become of increasingly less importance to the major energy groups.

Contents

[TOP]

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Pakistan Economic SWOT

Pakistan Political SWOT

Pakistan Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 3 - Regional Market Overview

Asia/Pacific Region

Table: Asia/Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Asia/Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)

Table: Asia/Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)

Table: Asia/Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)

Table: Asia/Pacific Gas Production (bcm)

Table: Asia/Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)

Pakistan

Chapter 4 - Business Environment Rankings

Pakistan

Asia/Pacific Region

Chapter 5 - Pakistan Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-Term Risk

Politics – Long-Term Risk

Oil & Gas Growth

Oil/Gas Reserves

Licensing/Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 6 - Business Environment Overview

Political Risk Summary

Economic Risk Summary

Business Environment Risk Summary

Legal Code/Corruption

Foreign Direct Investment

Tax Regime

Chapter 7 - Oil Market Outlook

Assessing The Risks

Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2007

Revised Forecasts

Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter 8 - Regional Supply and Demand

Asia/Pacific

Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Asia/Pacific

Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Asia/Pacific

Chapter 9 - Global Picture

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)

Chapter 10 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Oil and Gas Reserves

Oil Supply and Demand

Refining and Oil Products Trade

Revenues/Import Costs

Table 14: Pakistan Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts

Other Energy

Table: Pakistan Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts

Key Risks to Forecast Scenario

Chapter 11 - Economic Outlook

Table: GDP And Population

Chapter 12 - Regional Case Study – ConocoPhillips

Table: Exploration And Production 2005

Table: Commercial Realisation – Refining And Marketing 2005

Chapter 13 - Competitive Landscape

Executive Summary

Table 17: Key Players – Pakistan Oil & Gas Sector

Overview/State Role

PPL – Summary

BP – Summary

Table 18: Key Upstream Players

PEL – Summary

Mari Gas – Summary

PSO – Summary

Table 19: Key Downstream Players

Shell Pakistan – Summary

Chevron – Summary

Eni – Summary

Premier Oil – Summary

National Refinery – Summary

Others – Summary

Chapter 14 - Company Monitor

Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC)

Pakistan Petroleum Ltd (PPL)

Pakistan State Oil Company Ltd (PSO)

Shell Pakistan

Chapter 15 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Energy Industry

Cross checks

Sources

Network of Asian Oil & Gas Sources

[TOP]

BMI's Asian Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil & gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:

 

Read about our other Oil & Gas Reports

Asia Europe Middle East & Africa Americas
UK
UAE
US
[top]

 

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, Blackfriars, London EC4V 3DS, UK

BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI
has for 24 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.

 

script src="http://www.google-analytics.com/urchin.js" type="text/javascript">