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BMI's Executive Summary[TOP]
The latest Peru Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.12% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2011, while providing 0.76% of supply. Latin American regional oil demand rose to an estimated 6.87mn barrels per day (b/d) last year. It should average 7.01mn b/d in 2007 and then rise to around 7.82mn b/d by 2011. Regional oil production was last year estimated at 10.97mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.85mn b/d by 2011. In terms of natural gas, the region last year consumed an estimated 183bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 271bcm targeted for 2011, representing 48% growth. Production of an estimated 191bcm in 2006 should reach 272bcm in 2011, and implies just 2bcm of net exports the end of the period. Peru is not a significant regional gas consumer but, by 2011, its share of regional production is set to reach 3.31%. For the whole of last year, our estimates of average crude oil prices are US$61.10 for the OPEC basket, US$65.10 for Brent, US$66.20/bbl for WTI and US$61.30 for Urals. For the first quarter of this year, we have adjusted our forecasts to reflect the weather-induced volatility. The OPEC basket is now expected to have averaged US$54.30/bbl, with Brent at US$57.60; WTI averaging US$58.70 and Urals at US$54.00/bbl. Our projections for 2007 as a whole are barely changed from the last quarterly report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$55 per barrel. Based on last year's typical price differentials, this implies Brent at US$58.80, WTI averaging US$59.90/bbl, and Urals at US$55.30/bbl. Peruvian real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 5.5% for 2007, down from an estimated 7.9% in 2006. We are assuming 5.3% growth in 2008, followed by 4.7% in 2009 and 4.5% in 2010/11. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 90,000b/d by 2011, with the country expected to pump 110,000b/d this year. Consumption is forecast to increase by around 3% per annum to 2011, implying demand of 166,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 76,000b/d by 2011. Gas production is forecast to increase from last year's estimated 2.5bcm to 9bcm over the period, with net exports of up to 6bcm by 2011. In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Peru receives an unchanged composite score of 38, which now ranks the country equal second out of nine states included in the Latin America region, alongside Trinidad & Tobago. The overall business environment can be considered attractive in a regional context, thanks largely to above-average hydrocarbons growth potential and reserves to production ratio (RPR) offsetting mid-range scores for competitive environment and licensing framework. |
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Contents[TOP] Chapter 1 - Executive SummaryChapter 2 - SWOT AnalysisPeru Political SWOT Analysis Peru Economic SWOT Analysis Peru Business Environment SWOT Analysis Chapter 3 - Regional Market OverviewLatin America Region Peru Chapter 4 - Business Environment RankingsPeru Latin America Region Chapter 5 - Business Environment RankingEconomics – Long-Term Risk Politics – Long-Term Risk Oil & Gas Growth Oil/Gas Reserves Licensing/Regulation Competitive Environment Chapter 6 - Business Environment OverviewPolitical Risk Summary Economic Risk Summary Business Environment Risk Summary Legal Code/Corruption Foreign Direct Investment Tax Regime Chapter 7 - Oil Market OutlookAssessing The Risks Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2007 Revised Forecasts Table: Oil Price Forecasts Chapter 8 - Regional Supply and DemandLatin America Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Latin America Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Latin America Chapter 9 - Global PictureTable: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) Chapter 10 - Industry Forecast ScenarioOil and Gas Reserves Oil Supply and Demand Gas Supply and Demand LNG Refining And Oil Products Trade Revenues/Import Costs Table: Peru Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts Other Energy Table: Peru Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario Chapter 11 - Economic OutlookTable: Economic Activity Indicators Chapter 12 - Regional Case Study – Royal Dutch ShellCompetitive Landscape Executive Summary Table: Key Players: Peru Oil & Gas Sector Overview/State Role CNPC – Summary Occidental – Summary Table: Key Upstream Players RepsolYPF – Summary Maple Gas – Summary Pluspetrol – Summary Hunt Oil – Summary Table: Key Downstream Players SK Corporation – Summary Petrobras – Summary Others – Summary Chapter 13 - Company MonitorPerupetro/Petroperu Chapter 14 - Company MonitorRepsolYPF Peru Chapter 15 - BMI Forecast ModellingHow We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Energy Industry Cross checks Sources
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Network of Latin American Oil & Gas Sources[TOP] BMI's Latin American Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil & gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: |
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