BMI's Executive Summary

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The Sector At A Glance

Key Insights On The Oil & Gas Sector Of Qatar

The latest Qatar Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.98% of MEA regional oil demand by 2010, while providing 3.22% of supply. MEA regional oil demand rose to 10.7mn b/d last year and should average 10.9mn b/d in 2006, before reaching 12.20mn b/d by 2010. MEA gas consumption in 2005 was 343bcm, with demand of 533bcm targeted for 2010. Production last year of 448bcm should reach 774bcm by the end of the decade. Qatar’s share of consumption in 2005 was 4.66%, while its contribution to production was 9.82%. By 2010, its share of demand is forecast to be 4.32%, with the country accounting for 11.00% of supply.

Assuming an uneventful Q4, we are now predicting an OPEC basket price for 2006 averaging US$61.10/bbl – an increase of US$1.10 from our June forecast. This also represents a 19% rise from the FY05 average. Our forecasts for the US, Brent and Urals are US$66.40, US$65.40 and US$61.60/bbl respectively. For 2007, we continue to assume an OPEC basket price of US$50/bbl, which implies US$55.40 for the US, US$53.40 for Brent and US$49.50 for Urals. Prices are then forecast to fall by around US$5/bbl in 2008-2010, with the OPEC price averaging US$45/bbl over the period.

Qatar’s real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 8.0% for 2006, following 6.5% in 2005. We are assuming 7.0% growth in 2007 and 7.8% in 2008, followed by 8.3% in 2009 and 5.7% in 2010. We expect oil demand to rise from 98,000b/d last year to 119,000b/d in 2010, representing 4.0% annual growth that lags our underlying economic assumptions. State-owned Qatar Petroleum negotiates exploration and production agreements, shares in upstream projects and has 50% of oil and 40% of gas production. It has signed agreements with many of the leading IOCs, particularly for gas development and export projects. Our estimates assume 1.1mn b/d of 2006 oil and liquids production, rising to 1.25mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas production should reach 85bcm by 2010, up from 43.5bcm last year. Consumption is expected to rise from 15.9bcm to 23bcm by the end of the forecast period, allowing exports of 62bcm.

In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Qatar this quarter receives an unchanged composite score of 44, which still ranks the country first out of 16 states included in the MEA region. The country's overall business environment can be considered highly attractive in a regional context, thanks largely to a very low level of perceived political risk, plus the country's abundant oil and gas resources that are being developed in partnership with many of the worlds biggest IOCs. In terms of gas potential, Qatar is in a particularly strong position, although it is let down somewhat by limited oil upside.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Qatar Political SWOT

Qatar Economic SWOT

Qatar Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 3 - Regional Market Overview

Middle East/Africa Region

Table: MEA Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Middle East/Africa Oil Production (000b/d)

Table: Middle East/Africa Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)

Table: Middle East/Africa Gas Consumption (bcm)

Table: Middle East/Africa Gas Production (bcm)

Table: Middle East/Africa LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)

Qatar

Chapter 4 - Business Environment Rankings

Qatar

Middle East/Africa Region

Chapter 5 - Qatar Business Environment Ranking

Economics – long-term risk

Politics – long-term risk

Oil & Gas Growth

Oil/Gas Reserves

Licensing/Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 6 - Business Environment Overview

Political Risk Summary

Economic Risk Summary

Business Environment Risk Summary

Legal Framework/Corruption

Foreign Direct Investment

Tax regime

Chapter 7 - Oil Market Outlook

Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2006

Revised Forecasts

Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter 8 - Regional Supply and Demand

Middle East/Africa

Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Middle East/Africa

Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Middle East/Africa

Chapter 9 - Global Picture

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)

Chapter 10 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Oil and Gas Reserves

Oil Supply and Demand

Gas Supply and Demand

LNG

Refining and Oil Products Trade

Revenues/Import Costs

Table: Qatar Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts

Other Energy

Table: Qatar Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts

Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Chapter 11 - Economic Outlook

Table: Economic Activity

Chapter 12 - Country Snapshot: Qatar Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Chapter 13 - Regional Case Study

Global Player With Conflicting Domestic Needs

Chapter 14 - Competitive Landscape

Table: Key Domestic and Foreign Companies in the Qatar Oil and Gas Sector

Overview/State Role

Anadarko – Summary

Table: Key Upstream Players

Maersk – Summary

Total – Summary

Occidental – Summary

ExxonMobil – Summary

Table: Key Downstream Player

Qatargas – Summary

Rasgas – Summary

Chevron – Summary

Sasol – Summary

Shell – Summary

ConocoPhillips – Summary

Marathon – Summary

Chapter 15 - Company Monitor

Qatar Petroleum

ExxonMobil Oil Qatar

Company Analysis

Anadarko Qatar Energy

Company Analysis

SWOT Analysis

Total Qatar

Company Analysis

SWOT Analysis

Chapter 16 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Energy Industry

Cross checks

Sources

Chapter 17 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

The Long View: Data Over The Economic Cycle (2000-2007)

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Network of Middle Eastern and African Oil and Gas Sources

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BMI's Middle Eastern and African Oil and Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil and gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: