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Russia Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Russia Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Russia .
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Russia ’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Russian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Russia .
The Russia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Russia to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Russia , refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Russia .
Business Monitor International's Russia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Russian oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Russia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Russian oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Russian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Russia .
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Russian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Russia .
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Russia Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| Russia Political SWOT |
| Russia Economic SWOT |
| Russia Business Environment SWOT |
Chapter - Russia Energy Market Overview |
| Regional Energy Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Central/Eastern Europe Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| Russia Upstream Rating – Overview |
| Russia Upstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Russia Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
| Russia Downstream Rating – Overview |
| Russia Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Russia Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
Chapter - Business Environment |
| Legal Framework |
| Infrastructure |
| Labour Force |
| Foreign Investment Policy |
| Tax Regime |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil and Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply and Demand |
| Gas Supply and Demand |
| LNG |
| Refining and Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Russia Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Russia Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: Russia – Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Domestic & Foreign Companies in the Russian Oil and Gas Sector |
| Overview/State Role |
| Gas Dispute With Ukraine |
| Key Upstream Players |
| Key Downstream Players |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| Gazprom |
| Gazprom Neft (formerly Sibneft) |
| Rosneft |
| Lukoil |
| TNK-BP |
| Tatneft |
| Total |
| Imperial Energy |
| Surgutneftegaz – Summary |
| Russneft – Summary |
| Novatek – Summary |
| ConocoPhillips – Summary |
| Shell – Summary |
| Itera – Summary |
| ExxonMobil – Summary |
| Transneft – Summary |
| Sakhalin Energy – Summary |
| Wintershall – Summary |
| Sibir Energy – Summary |
| BP – Summary |
| Lundin Petroleum – Summary |
| Halliburton – Summary |
| Others – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm) |
| Russia Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
| BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How we generate our industry forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
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Russia Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The latest Russia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 50.71% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 69.25% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.36mn b/d in 2008. It should average 5.42mn b/d in 2008 and then rise to around 5.99mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 8.83mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 13.0mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.44mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.18mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.64mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 8.45mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 637bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 749bcm targeted for 2013, representing 17.5% growth. Production of an estimated 783bcm in 2008 should reach 913bcm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from around 145bcm in 2008 to 164bcm by the end of the period. Russia’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 70.22%, while its share of production is put at 78.63%. By 2013, its share of demand is forecast to be 65.76%, with the country accounting for 73.46% of supply.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (- 45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
Russian real GDP is forecast by BMI to fall by 1.0% in 2009, down from an estimated 4.5% growth in 2008. We are assuming 1.9% growth in 2010, 3.6% in 2011 and 5.1% in 2012, followed by 5.5% in 2013. State-controlled Gazprom has a virtual monopoly over gas transportation and exports. With it being the main provider, we see gas output rising from an estimated 615bcm in 2008 to 670bcm by 2013. Russian domestic companies control most of Russia’s oil production, with the exception being Anglo-Russian joint venture (JV) TNK-BP. Rosneft is the main state-controlled oil producer. The companies are expected to deliver 2009 output of crude oil and condensates averaging 9.70mn b/d. Oil production seems likely to stagnate over the short term, then grow only slowly over the remainder of the decade. Our 2013 production forecast is for 10.0mn b/d.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Russian oil production of 9.7%, with output falling initially from an estimated 9.92mn b/d in 2008 to 9.70mn b/d in 2009/2010, before rising gradually to 10.95mn b/d by 2018. Oil consumption during the period is forecast to rise by 27.40%, permitting exports peaking at 7.73mn b/d in 2016. Gas consumption is expected to be up from an estimated 448bcm to 544bcm by 2018, providing export potential peaking at 211bcm at the end of the forecast period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Russia now occupies fourth place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, aided by unrivalled hydrocarbons resources. Its oil and gas reserves account for much of the upstream score, but licensing, privatisation and country risk factors are less impressive. Medium-term scope exists for Russia to challenge Poland above it, while Slovenia and Slovakia pose no threat below. The country is near the top of the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, having fallen behind Poland. There are a few particularly high scores, but a fresh move to challenge Poland is possible over the medium term. There are excellent scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, population and nominal GDP. Romania is just one point below Russia in the regional rankings, but there is little chance of its mounting a challenge.
|
Russia Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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