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Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Saudi Arabia.
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Saudi Arabia’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Saudi oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Saudi Arabia.
The Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Saudi Arabia to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Saudi Arabia, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Saudi Arabia.
Business Monitor International's Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Saudi Arabia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Saudi oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Saudi Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Saudi Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Saudi Arabia.
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| Saudi Arabia Political SWOT |
| Saudi Arabia Economic SWOT |
| Saudi Arabia Business Environment SWOT |
Chapter - Saudi Arabia Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Middle East LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Middle East Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| Saudi Arabia Upstream Rating – Overview |
| Saudi Arabia Upstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Saudi Arabia Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
| Saudi Arabia Downstream Rating – Overview |
| Saudi Arabia Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Saudi Arabia Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
Chapter - Business Environment |
| Legal Framework |
| Infrastructure |
| Labour Force |
| Foreign Investment Policy |
| Tax Regime |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil and Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply and Demand |
| Gas Supply and Demand |
| Refining and Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Saudi Arabia Other Energy – Historical data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: Saudi Arabia – Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
| Table: Key Players – Saudi Oil & Gas Sector |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Key Downstream Players |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| Saudi Aramco |
| Shell Saudi Arabia |
| ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia |
| Chevron |
| Total – Summary |
| Eni – Summary |
| ConocoPhillips – Summary |
| BP – Summary |
| Repsol YPF – Summary |
| Lukoil – Summary |
| Sinopec – Summary |
| Sumitomo – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) |
| Saudi Arabia Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How we generate our industry forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
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Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The latest Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 21.19% of Middle Eastern (ME) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing a dominant 39.67% of supply. Regional oil use of 8.24mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 10.86mn b/d in 2008. It should average 11.09mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 12.08mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 22.87mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 25.94mn b/d. It is set to rise to 28.99mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 14.63mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 15.08mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 16.91mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 395bcm, with demand of 573bn cubic metres (bcm) targeted for 2013, representing 45% growth. Production of an estimated 410bcm in 2008 should reach 617bcm in 2013 (+50.5%), which implies net exports rising to 45bcm by the end of the period. Saudi Arabia in 2008 consumed an estimated 19.98% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 17.96% by 2013. It contributed an estimated 19.25% to 2008 regional gas production and, by 2013, will account for 16.66% of supply.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (-45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
Saudi real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 4.2% for 2009, following an estimated 5.7% in 2008. We are assuming 3.6% growth in 2010, 3.0% in 2011, 3.3% in 2012, followed by 4.2% in 2013. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 2.22mn b/d in 2008 to 2.56mn b/d in 2013, representing 3.0% annual growth that lags our underlying economic assumptions. State-owned Saudi Aramco is wholly responsible for oil and liquids production, forecast to rise from an estimated 10.85mn b/d in 2008 to 11.50mn b/d by 2013. There is no foreign involvement in the upstream oil segment, although international oil companies (IOCs) could have a role in future gas field development and are major players in refining and petrochemicals. Gas production should reach 102.8bcm by 2013, up from an estimated 78.9bcm in 2008. Consumption should match the trend, leaving Saudi with no import requirement or export potential during the period.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Saudi oil production of 24.8%, with volumes rising steadily to 13.0mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 37.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 2.95mn b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise from 76bcm to 118bcm by the end of the period. With 2007-2018 demand growth of 55.5%, this provides a balanced market throughout the period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Saudi Arabia is still ranked a surprising last place behind even Bahrain in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating. It clearly has an unrivalled oil resource and production position, but this is not sufficient to keep Saudi away from the foot of the regional league table. It is now five points behind Bahrain, and shows few signs of having the ability to challenge its less well-equipped neighbour. The country is just in the lower half of the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, with a few high scores and longer-term progress up the rankings a possibility. It is ranked sixth, just behind Iran, thanks largely to high scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, and nominal GDP. Generally healthy country risk factors help bolster the overall score, but Qatar below could ultimately challenge for Saudi’s current position.
|
Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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