BMI's Executive Summary

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The Sector At A Glance

Key Insights On The Oil & Gas Sector Of Singapore

The latest Singapore Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.37% of Asia/Pacific regional oil demand by 2010, while not contributing to supply. Asia/Pacific regional oil demand rose to an estimated 24.74mn b/d last year and should average 25.36mn b/d in 2007, before reaching 27.64mn b/d by 2010. Asia/Pacific gas consumption in 2006 is estimated at 419bcm, with demand of 602bcm targeted for 2010. Production last year of 342bcm should reach 490bcm by the end of the decade. Singapore’s share of consumption in 2006 was an estimated 1.67%, while it has no domestic gas production. By 2010, its share of demand is forecast to be 2.16%.

For the whole of last year, our preliminary estimates of average prices are US$61.30 per barrel for the OPEC basket, US$65.03 for Brent, US$66.24/bbl for WTI and US$61.30 for Urals. For 2007, the revised BMI forecasts are for the OPEC basket to average US$55 per barrel. Based on last year’s typical price differentials, this implies Brent at US$58.72, WTI averaging US$59.94/bbl, and Urals at US$55 per barrel. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will slip from US$55/bbl this year to US$50 in 2008, before settling around US$45/bbl in 2009/2010.

Singapore’s real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 4.5% for 2007, down from an estimated 7.4% in 2006. We are assuming 4.3% growth in 2008-09, followed by 4.2% in 2010. There is no domestic oil or gas production, with extensive IOC involvement in refining and petrochemicals. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by around 3% per annum to 2011, implying demand of 967,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand and imports are forecast to increase from an estimated 7bcm last year to 13.7bcm by 2011.

In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Singapore receives an unchanged composite score of 35, which continues to rank the country fourth out of 14 states included in the Asia/Pacific region. The overall business environment can be considered attractive in a regional context, thanks almost exclusively to low levels of perceived political and economic risk. The country has no oil or gas resources, which restricts its appeal to international oil companies (IOCs). There is only modest growth in domestic oil and gas consumption, but the regulatory framework is benign and an effective competitive landscape exists. Singapore is a regional refining and petrochemicals hub, with much of its appeal coming from its location and the political/economic stability. However, regional competition is strong and some IOCs have been reducing their exposure to the island state.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Singapore Economic SWOT

Singapore Political SWOT

Singapore Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 3 - Regional Market Overview

Asia/Pacific Region

Table: Asia/Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Asia/Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)

Table: Asia/Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/

Table: Asia/Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)

Table: Asia/Pacific Gas Production (bcm)

Table: Asia/Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports)

Singapore

Chapter 4 - Business Environment Rankings

Singapore

Asia/Pacific Region

Chapter 5 - Singapore Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-Term Risk

Politics – Long-Term Risk

Oil & Gas Growth

Oil/Gas Reserves

Licensing/Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 6 - Business Environment Overview

Political Risk Summary

Economic Risk Summary

Business Environment Risk Summary

Legal Code/Corruption

Foreign Direct Investment

Tax Regime

Chapter 7 - Oil Market Outlook

Assessing The Risks

Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2007

Revised Forecasts

Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter 8 - Regional Supply and Demand

Asia/Pacific

Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Asia/Pacific

Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Asia/Pacific

Chapter 9 - Global Picture

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)

Chapter 10 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Oil and Gas Reserves

Oil Supply and Demand

Gas Supply and Demand

LNG

Refining and Oil Products Trade

Revenues/Import Costs

Table 14 Singapore Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts

Other Energy

Table: Singapore Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts

Key Risks to Forecast Scenario

Chapter 11 - Economic Outlook

Table: GDP, Output & Population

Chapter 12 - Regional Case Study – ConocoPhillips

Table: Exploration And Production 2005

Table: Commercial Realisation – Refining And Marketing 2005

Chapter 13 - Competitive Landscape

Executive Summary

Table: Key Players – Singapore Oil & Gas Sector

Overview/State Role

Chevron – Summary

Table: Key Downstream Players

Shell – Summary

SPC – Summary

ExxonMobil – Summary

Chapter 14 - Company Monitor

Singapore Petroleum Company

Chevron

ExxonMobil Singapore

Royal Dutch Shell

Chapter 15 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Energy Industry

Cross checks

Sources

Network of Asian Oil & Gas Sources

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BMI's Asian Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil & gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: