BMI's Executive Summary

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The latest Slovenia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 1.39% of CEE regional oil demand by 2011, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. CEE regional oil demand rose to an estimated 5.21mn barrels per day (b/d) last year and should average 5.35mn b/d in 2007, before reaching 5.97mn b/d by 2011. Production of an estimated 12.41mn b/d last year is forecast to reach 15.22mn b/d by 2011. CEE gas consumption in 2006 was an estimated 587bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 715bcm targeted for 2011. Production last year of an estimated 680bcm should reach 758bcm by the end of the period. Slovenia has no significant share of regional gas consumption or production.

For the whole of last year, our estimates of average crude oil prices are US$61.10 for the OPEC basket, US$65.10 for Brent, US$66.20 per barrel (/bbl) for WTI and US$61.30 for Urals. For the first quarter of this year, we have adjusted our forecasts to reflect the weather-induced volatility. The OPEC basket is now expected to have averaged US$54.30/bbl, with Brent at US$57.60; WTI averaging US$58.70 and Urals at US$54.00/bbl. Our projections for 2007 as a whole are barely changed from the last quarterly report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$55/bbl. Based on last year's typical price differentials, this implies Brent at US$58.80, WTI averaging US$59.90/bbl and Urals at US$55.30/bbl.

Slovenian real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 4.4% for 2007, down from 5.2% in 2006. We are assuming 4.2% growth in 2008, followed by 4.0% in 2009-11. Oil consumption can be expected to at least match the underlying GDP trend, with up to 5% annual demand growth expected. Lack of supply infrastructure means a more dramatic rise in oil use is unlikely until much later in the decade. Our projections suggest oil consumption will reach 83,000b/d in 2011, met largely by imports. Gas consumption reached an estimated 1.4bcm last year, with up to 0.1bcm being produced from domestic sources. This implies imports of 1.39bcm last year. Demand is expected to have reached 2.0bcm by 2011, with domestic production potentially reaching 1bcm and imports also totalling 1.0bcm.

In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Slovenia receives a higher composite score of 39, and retains third place out of the 12 states included in the CEE region. The overall business environment can be considered attractive in a regional context, thanks almost exclusively to a particularly low level of perceived economic and political risk. There is little upside potential in the country's oil and gas market, even though the process of deregulation is well advanced. Slovenia's oil and gas resources are insignificant, there are no operating oil refineries and there is little to attract international oil company (IOC) involvement.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Slovenia Political SWOT

Slovenia Economic SWOT

Slovenia Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 3 - Regional Market Overview

Central/Eastern Europe Region

Table Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)

Table Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)

Table Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)

Table Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm)

Table Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)

Slovenia

Chapter 4 - Business Environment Rankings

Slovenia

Central/Eastern Europe Region

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Business Environment Ranking

Chapter 5 - Slovenia Business Environment Ranking

Economics – long-term risk

Politics – long-term risk

Oil & Gas Growth

Oil/Gas Reserves

Licensing/Regulation

Competitive Environment

Political Risk Summary

Economic Risk Summary

Business Environment Risk Summary

Legal Code/Corruption

Foreign Direct Investment

Tax Regime

Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2006

Revised Forecasts

Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter 6 - Regional Supply and Demand

Central/Eastern Europe

Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Central/Eastern Europe

Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Central/Eastern Europe

Chapter 7 - Global Picture

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)

Chapter 8 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Oil and Gas Reserves

Oil Supply and Demand

Gas Supply and Demand

Refining and Oil Products Trade

Revenues/Import Costs

Table: Slovenia Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts

Other Energy

Table: Slovenia Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts

Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Chapter 9 - Economic Outlook

Table: GDP, Population & Output

Chapter 10 - Regional Case Study

Emerging Player

Table: Lukoil Investment*

Chapter 11 - Competitive Landscape

Executive Summary

Table: Key Players: Slovenia Oil & Gas Sector

Overview/State Role

Petrol - Summary

OMV - Summary

Others - Summary

Table: Key Downstream Players

Chapter 12 - Country Snapshot: Slovenia Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Chapter 13 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Energy Industry

Cross checks

Sources

Chapter 14 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Wages (ave labour force per annum), US$ PPP

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Network of European Oil & Gas Sources

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BMI's European Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil and gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: