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South Africa Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The South Africa Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for South Africa.
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for South Africa’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, South African oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in South Africa.
The South Africa Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for South Africa to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in South Africa, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within South Africa.
Business Monitor International's South Africa Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the South African oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for South Africa to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the South African Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa.
- Exploit The Latest Competitive South African Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in South Africa.
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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South Africa Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| South Africa Political SWOT |
| South Africa Economic SWOT |
| South Africa Business Environment SWOT |
Chapter - South Africa Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Africa Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Africa Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Africa Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Africa Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Africa Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Africa LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Africa Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| South Africa Upstream Rating – Overview |
| South Africa Upstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| South Africa Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
| South Africa Downstream Rating – Overview |
| South Africa Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| South Africa Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
Chapter - Business Environment |
| Legal Framework |
| Infrastructure |
| Labour Force |
| Foreign Investment Policy |
| Tax Regime |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil and Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply and Demand |
| Gas Supply and Demand |
| LNG |
| Refining and Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: South Africa Oil & Gas – Historical data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: South Africa Other Energy – Historical data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: South Africa - Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Players – South African Oil & Gas Sectors |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Key Downstream Players |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| PetroSA – Summary |
| Engen – Summary |
| Sasol – Summary |
| Shell – Summary |
| Total – Summary |
| BP – Summary |
| Caltex – Summary |
| Rompco – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: Africa Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: Africa Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: Africa Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: Africa Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: Africa Gas Production (bcm) |
| South Africa Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How we generate our industry forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
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South Africa Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
BMI forecasts that South Africa will account for 14.38% of African regional oil demand by 2013, with negligible domestic crude production but a growing synthetic oil capability. African regional oil use of 2.98mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.65mn b/d in 2008. It should average 3.73mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 4.15mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 7.84mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 10.46mn b/d. It is set to rise to 12.52mn b/d by 2013. South Africa in 2008 accounted for an estimated 0.13% of regional oil supply, and its market share is expected to be 0.13% by the end of the forecast period. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.86mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 6.80mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 8.36mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 106bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 182bcm targeted for 2013. Production of an estimated 214bcm in 2008 should reach 358bcm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 107bcm in 2008 to 176bcm by the end of the period. In 2008, South Africa’s estimated share of regional gas supply was 1.88%, rising to 1.96% by 2013. The country’s share of demand in 2008 was an estimated 4.71%, with 6.17% predicted by 2013.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (- 45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90/bbl reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
South African real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 1.4% for 2009, down from an estimated 3.0% in 2008. We are assuming 3.7% growth in 2010, 4.1% in 2011, 4.5% in 2012, followed by 4.0% in 2013. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 555,000b/d in 2007 to 597,000b/d in 2013, representing less than 1.5% annual growth that lags our underlying economic assumptions. There is very little domestic crude production, although national companies contribute some 200,000b/d of synthetic oil output. International oil companies (IOCs) are restricted largely to roles in oil refining and fuels distribution. Gas production could reach 7.0bcm by 2012/2013, up from an estimated 4.0bcm in 2008. Consumption is expected to rise from 5.0bcm to 11.2bcm by the end of the forecast period, requiring imports of 4.2bcm.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in South African oil and gas liquids consumption of 17.2%, with demand rising steadily to 643,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Synthetic oil production is set to rise from 205,000b/d to 350,000b/d, with crude imports peaking at 335,000b/d in 2011. Gas consumption is expected to rise to 12.9bcm by the end of the period, requiring imports up from an estimated 1.0bcm in 2008 to 7.9bcm by 2018. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
South Africa is still ranked eighth in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its virtually non-existent oil and gas resource base. It stands six points clear of Equatorial Guinea, so should be safe over the medium term. South Africa’s score reflects the low level of state asset ownership and the advanced stage of privatisation, plus an established licensing framework and largely encouraging country risk factors. The absence of hydrocarbon resources offsets these positive factors. The country is well up the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, with several high scores. It is ranked first, ahead of Egypt, thanks largely to high scores for oil demand, gas consumption growth, nonstate competition, deregulation, and nominal GDP. Egypt is six points below, and represents no immediate threat to South Africa’s ranking.
|
South Africa Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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