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Thailand Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Thailand Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Thailand.
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Thailand’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Thai oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Thailand.
The Thailand Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Thailand to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Thailand, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Thailand.
Business Monitor International's Thailand Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thai oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Thailand to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Thai oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Thai Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Thai Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Thailand.
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Thailand Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| Thailand Political SWOT |
| Thailand Economic SWOT |
| Thailand Business Environment SWOT |
Chapter - Thailand Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Energy Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Asia Pacific Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| Thailand Upstream Rating – Overview |
| Thailand Upstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Thailand Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns |
| Thailand Downstream Rating – Overview |
| Thailand Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Thailand Downstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns |
Chapter - Business Environment |
| Legal Framework |
| Infrastructure |
| Labour Force |
| Foreign Investment Policy |
| Tax Regime |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil & Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply & Demand |
| Gas Supply & Demand |
| LNG |
| Refining & Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Thailand Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Thailand Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To Forecast Scenario |
| Long-term Energy Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: Thailand - Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Players – Thailand Oil & Gas Sector |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Key Downstream Players |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| PTT |
| PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) |
| Chevron |
| Esso (Thailand) plc |
| Thai Shell Co Ltd |
| Total – Summary |
| Hess – Summary |
| BG – Summary |
| Others – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) |
| Thailand Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
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Thailand Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The latest Thailand Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.56% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 2.78% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.13mn b/d in 2008. It should average 26.50mn b/d in 2009, then rise to around 28.99mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed an estimated 443bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 577bcm is targeted for 2013. Production of an estimated 361bcm in 2008 should reach 483bcm in 2013, but implies net imports rising from an estimated 82bcm per annum in 2008 to 94bcm in 2013. Thailand’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 8.35%, while its share of production was 7.47%. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 8.99%, with the country accounting for 7.24% of supply.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US$113.49/bbl recorded during the previous three months. The full-year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00/bbl. The new full-year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65/bbl, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48/bbl for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00/bbl in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00/bbl for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90/bbl in January to a high of US$64.90/bbl in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20/bbl – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67.00/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40/bbl in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The fullyear outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90/bbl in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
Thai real GDP growth is forecast at 3.8% for 2009, compared with an estimated 4.2% in 2008. We are now assuming 4.5% growth in 2010, followed by 5% in 2011-2013. State-controlled PTTEP and international oil company (IOC) partners are working hard to secure domestic oil and gas volumes, with limited success in terms of crude oil. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 242,000b/d by 2013, although the country is expected to pump 295,000b/d in 2009. Consumption is expected to have stagnated in 2006 and 2007, but should then increase by up to 2% per annum in 2008- 2013, implying demand of 1.03mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 788,000b/d by 2013. End-period gas consumption of 52bcm outstrips likely supply of 35bcm.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a reduction in Thai oil production of 39.4%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 187,000b/d in 2018. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 24.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1.14mn b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise from around 27bcm in 2008 to a peak of 35bcm in 2012-2014, before slipping to 30bcm by 2018. With demand growth of 87%, this will require imports to rise to 36bcm by the end of the forecast period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Thailand now ranks eighth in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, reflecting a modest resource position, moderate gas growth outlook and an IOC-friendly competitive environment. The country sits just ahead of Indonesia, but should be able to keep its Asian neighbour at bay. Thailand still ranks equal eighth with Pakistan in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its above-average gas demand growth outlook and relatively low level of retail site intensity. It is just ahead of Vietnam and the Philippines in the league table.
|
Thailand Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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