BMI's Executive Summary

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The latest Thailand Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.53% of Asia/Pacific regional oil demand by 2011, while providing 3.14% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.4mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 24.84mn b/d last year. It should average 25.68mn b/d in 2007 and then rise to around 29.04mn b/d by 2011. In terms of natural gas, the region last year consumed 409bcm, with demand of 620bcm targeted for 2011, representing growth of 51.4% between 2006 and 2011. Production of 329bcm in 2006 should reach 478bcm in 2011 (+45.0%), but implies net imports rising from 80bcm per annum to 142bcm. Thailand's share of gas consumption in 2006 was 7.47%, while its share of production was 7.38%. By 2011, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.09%, with the country accounting for 7.12% of supply.

Global oil demand growth is expected to be around 2.0% this year, with Asia Pacific and the CEE regions dominating. This is an encouraging rate of market expansion, given a relatively uncertain economic picture and high commodity prices. Our oil price projections for 2007 as a whole are revised upwards from the last quarterly report. We are now assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$59 per barrel, compared with the US$55 estimate provided by our last two quarterly reports. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$62.83, WTI averaging US$61.25/bbl, and Urals at US$59.42/bbl.

Thai real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is now forecast by BMI at 4.0% for 2007, down from 5.0% in 2006. We are assuming 5.0% growth in 2008, 5.3% in 2009, followed by 5.2% in 2010 and 5.1% in 2011. State-controlled PTTEP and international oil company (IOC) partners are working hard to secure domestic oil and gas volumes, with limited success in terms of crude oil. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 250,000b/d by 2011, although the country is expected to pump 280,000b/d this year. Consumption is forecast to recover this year after stagnating in 2006, but then increase by 2.5% per annum to 2011, implying demand of 1.03mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 777,000b/d by 2011. End-period gas consumption of 43.9bcm outstrips likely supply of 34bcm.

In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Thailand receives a lower composite score of 28 and now shares 11th place out of 14 states included in the Asia/Pacific region with Hong Kong. The overall business environment can be considered unattractive in a regional context, thanks to a high level of longterm political risk, poor oil and gas growth prospects and a low oil/gas reserves to production ratio (RPR).

There is an acceptable licensing framework and reasonable progress has been made in terms of deregulation. Industry consolidation and further privatisation should accelerate the improvement in the competitive landscape. With leading IOCs such as Royal Dutch Shell quitting both the upstream and refining segments, it is clear that Thailand's attractions within the region have faded since the late 1990s.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - SWOT Analysis

Thailand Economic SWOT

Thailand Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 - Regional Market Overview

Asia/Pacific Region

Table: Asia/Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Asia/Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)

Table: Asia/Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)

Table: Asia/Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)

Table: Asia/Pacific Gas Production (bcm)

Table: Asia/Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)

Thailand

Chapter 3 - Business Environment Rankings

Thailand

Asia/Pacific Region

Table: Asia/Pacific Business Environment Ranking

Chapter 4 - Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-Term Risk

Politics – Long-Term Risk

Oil & Gas Growth

Oil/Gas Reserves

Licensing/Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 5 - Business Environment Overview

Political Risk Summary

Economic Risk Summary

Business Environment Risk Summary

Legal Code/Corruption

Foreign Direct Investment

Tax Regime

Chapter 6 - Oil Market Outlook

Assessing The Risks

Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2007

Revised Forecasts

Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter 7 - Regional Supply and Demand

Asia/Pacific

Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Asia/Pacific

Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Asia/Pacific

Chapter 8 - Global Picture

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)

Chapter 9 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Oil and Gas Reserves

Oil Supply and Demand

Gas Supply and Demand

LNG

Refining And Oil Products Trade

Revenues/Import Costs

Table: Thailand Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts

Other Energy

Table: Thailand Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts

Key Risks to Forecast Scenario

Chapter 10 - Economic Outlook

Table: GDP, Output & Population

Chapter 11 - Regional Case Study – ConocoPhillips

Table: Exploration And Production 2005

Table: Commercial Realisation – Refining And Marketing 2005

Chapter 12 - Competitive Landscape

Executive Summary

Table: Key Players – Thailand Oil & Gas Sector

Overview/State Role

Table: Key Upstream Players

Chevron – Summary

Shell – Summary

PTT – Summary

PTTEP – Summary

Table: Key Downstream Players

ExxonMobil – Summary

Total – Summary

Hess – Summary

BG – Summary

Others – Summary

Chapter 13 - Company Monitor

PTT

PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP)

Thai Shell Co Ltd

Esso (Thailand) plc

Chevron

Chapter 14 - BMI Forecast Modelling

Energy Industry

Cross checks

Sources

Network of Asian Oil & Gas Sources

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BMI's Asian Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil & gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: