BMI's Executive Summary

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The latest Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.47% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2011, while providing only 1.18% of supply. Latin America regional oil demand rose to an estimated 6.87mn barrels per day (b/d) last year. It should average 7.01mn b/d in 2007 and then rise to around 7.82mn b/d by 2011. Regional oil production was last year estimated at 10.97mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.85mn b/d by 2011.

In terms of natural gas, the region last year consumed an estimated 183bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 271bcm targeted for 2011, representing 48% growth. Production of an estimated 191bcm in 2006 should reach 272bcm in 2011, and implies just 2bcm of net exports the end of the period. Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) contributed an estimated 8.74% to 2006 regional gas consumption, while producing an estimated 23.04%. By 2011, the country is expected to consume 9.59% of the region's gas, while contributing 22.06% to supply.

For the whole of last year, our estimates of average crude oil prices are US$61.10 for the OPEC basket, US$65.10 for Brent, US$66.20/bbl for WTI and US$61.30 for Urals. For the first quarter of this year, we have adjusted our forecasts to reflect the weather-induced volatility. The OPEC basket is now expected to have averaged US$54.30/bbl, with Brent at US$57.60; WTI averaging US$58.70 and Urals at US$54.00/bbl. Our projections for 2007 as a whole are barely changed from the last quarterly report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$55 per barrel. Based on last year's typical price differentials, this implies Brent at US$58.80, WTI averaging US$59.90/bbl, and Urals at US$55.30/bbl.

T&T's real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 5.7% for 2007, down from an estimated 12.0% in 2006. We are assuming 4.3% growth in 2008, 3.5% in 2009, followed by 3.0% in 2010. The emphasis of several major international oil company (IOC) partners to the state in the hydrocarbons segment is on gas for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export, with limited potential for oil production.

We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 140,000b/d by 2011, with the country expected to pump 165,000b/d this year. Consumption is forecast to increase by around 5% per annum to 2011, implying demand of 37,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas production is forecast to increase from last year's estimated 44bcm to 60bcm over the period, with net exports growing from an estimated 28bcm to 34bcm by 2011, exclusively in the form of LNG.

In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, T&T receives a lower composite score of 38, which has demoted the country to joint second out of nine states included in the Latin America region, alongside Peru. The overall business environment can be considered attractive in a regional context, thanks largely to the country's perceived low level of economic and political risk, above-average hydrocarbons output growth, moderate reserves to production ratio (RPR) and favourable regulatory/competitive framework.

Increasing numbers of foreign companies have been drawn into Trinidad's gas sector as a result of several world-class discoveries and the development of some of the industry's biggest gas export facilities. The country has become a major supplier to the US and plans dramatic export expansion over the medium term, involving a number of leading IOCs.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Brief

Trinidad & Tobago Business Environment SWOT Analysis

Chapter 2 - Regional Market Overview

Latin America Region

Trinidad & Tobago

Chapter 3 - Business Environment Rankings

Trinidad & Tobago

Latin America Region

Chapter 4 - Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-Term Risk

Politics – Long-Term Risk

Oil & Gas Growth

Oil/Gas Reserves

Licensing/Regulation

Competitive Environment

Chapter 5 - Business Environment Overview

Political Risk Summary

Economic Risk Summary

Business Environment Risk Summary

Legal Code/Corruption

Foreign Direct Investment

Tax Regime

Chapter 6 - Oil Market Outlook

Table 8 Crude Price Forecasts 2006

Revised Forecasts

Table 9 Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter 7 - Regional Supply and Demand

Latin America

Table 10 Oil Production (000b/d) – Latin America

Table 11 Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Latin America

Chapter 8 - Global Picture

Table 12 Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table 13 Global Oil Production (000b/d)

Chapter 9 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Oil and Gas Reserves

Oil Supply and Demand

Gas Supply and Demand

LNG

Refining and Oil Products Trade

Revenues/Import Costs

Table 14: Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts

Other Energy

Table 15: Trinidad & Tobago Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts

Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Chapter 10 - Economic Outlook

Table: Economic Activity - Historical Data And Forecast

Chapter 11 - Country Snapshot: Trinidad & Tobago Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Chapter 12 - Regional Case Study

Investment Needed To Fulfil Venezuelan Potential

Strategic Vision

Export Commitments

Regional Position

Chapter 13 - Competitive Landscape

Executive Summary

Table 17: Key Domestic and Foreign players – Trinidad Oil and Gas Sector

Overview/State Role

BPTT – Summary

BHP – Summary

BG – Summary

Table 18: Key Upstream Players

Talisman – Summary

RepsolYPF – Summary

EOG – Summary

Table 19: Key Downstream Players

ALNG – Summary

NGC – Summary

NP – Summary

Others – Summary

Chapter 14 - Company Monitor

BP Energy Company of Trinidad and Tobago (BPTT)

BG Trinidad & Tobago

Company Analysis

SWOT Analysis

BHP Petroleum Trinidad

Company Analysis

Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited (Petrotrin)

Company Analysis

SWOT Analysis

The National Gas Company of Trinidad & Tobago Ltd (NGC)

Company Analysis

SWOT Analysis

The National Petroleum Marketing Company of Trinidad & Tobago Ltd (NP)

Company Analysis

SWOT Analysis

Chapter 15 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Energy Industry

Cross Checks

Sources

Chapter 16 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Wages (ave per annum), US$

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn