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Turkey Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Turkey Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Turkey .
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Turkey ’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Turkish oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Turkey .
The Turkey Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Turkey to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Turkey , refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Turkey .
Business Monitor International's Turkey Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkish oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Turkey to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Turkish Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey .
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Turkish Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Turkey .
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Turkey Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| Turkey Political SWOT |
| Turkey Economic SWOT |
| Turkey Business Environment SWOT |
Chapter - Turkey Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Middle East LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Middle East Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| Turkey Upstream Rating – Overview |
| Turkey Upstream Rating – Limits to Potential Returns |
| Turkey Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
| Turkey Downstream Rating – Overview |
| Turkey Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Turkey Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
Chapter - Business Environment |
| Legal Framework |
| Infrastructure |
| Labour Force |
| Foreign Investment Policy |
| Tax Regime |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil and Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply and Demand |
| Gas Supply and Demand |
| LNG |
| Refining and Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Turkey Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Turkey Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: Turkey - Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Players – Turkey Oil & Gas Sector |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Key Downstream Players |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO) |
| Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (TÜPRAS) |
| Petrol Ofisi (POAS) |
| Botas – Summary |
| BP – Summary |
| Shell – Summary |
| ExxonMobil – Summary |
| Total – Summary |
| Turkpetrol – Summary |
| Perenco – Summary |
| Aladdin Middle East – Summary |
| Otto, Incremental, Petraco Energi – Summary |
| Gazprom – Summary |
| Lukoil – Summary |
| Others – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) |
| Turkey Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How we generate our industry forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
|
Turkey Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The latest Turkey Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 6.43% of Middle Eastern (ME) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing an insignificant contribution to supply. Regional oil use of 8.24mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 10.86mn b/d in 2008. It should average 11.09mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009 and then rise to around 12.08mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 22.87mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 25.94mn b/d. It is set to rise to 28.99mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 14.63mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 15.08mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 16.91mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 395bcm, with demand of 573bcm targeted for 2013, representing 45% growth. Production of an estimated 410bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2008 should reach 617bcm in 2013 (+50.5%), which implies net exports rising to 45bcm by the end of the period. Turkey’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 9.11%, while it makes no meaningful contribution to production. By 2013, its share of demand is forecast to be 10.27%.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (- 45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
Turkish real GDP is forecast by BMI to shrink by 3.3% in 2009, following estimated growth of 2.1% in 2008. We are now assuming 17% growth in 2010, 4.1% in 2011, 5.3% in 2012, followed by 5.6% in 2013. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 680,000b/d in 2007 to 777,000b/d in 2013, representing up to 3.0% annual growth. State upstream company TPAO and some international oil companies (IOCs) are attempting to raise domestic oil output, but our estimates assume 41,000b/d of 2008 oil and liquids production sinking to 27,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas production will remain insignificant, but consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 36bcm to 59bcm by the end of the forecast period, requiring imports of 58bcm.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Turkish oil consumption of 35.1%, with demand rising steadily from 666,000b/d to 900,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Refining capacity between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 122.4%, reaching 1.36mn b/d by 2018. Gas consumption is expected to climb from 35bcm 70bcm, depending largely on imports. LNG imports are expected to double from 6bcm to 12bcm during the forecast period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Turkey is now ranked equal fourth alongside Iran in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, in spite of the virtually non-existent oil and gas resource base. It stands three points clear of Oman, but should be safe from a challenge over the near term. Turkey’s score reflects the lower level of state asset ownership and the more advanced stage of privatisation than is the norm for the region, plus an established licensing framework and largely encouraging country risk factors. The country leads the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with several high scores but some threat from the UAE to its position over the medium- to long-term. It is now ranked a comfortable seven points ahead of the Emirates and five points in front of Israel, thanks largely to high scores for oil demand, retail site intensity, non-state competition, deregulation, and nominal GDP.
|
Turkey Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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