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Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Turkmenistan.
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Turkmenistan’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Turkmen oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Turkmenistan.
The Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Turkmenistan to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Turkmenistan, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Turkmenistan.
Business Monitor International's Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkmen oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Turkmenistan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkmen oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Turkmen Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Turkmenistan.
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Turkmen Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Turkmenistan.
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| Turkmenistan Political SWOT |
| Turkmenistan Economic SWOT |
Chapter - Turkmenistan Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Overview |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
Chapter - Oil Price Outlook |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2007-2008 |
| Revised Forecasts |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2008-2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Regional Energy Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Central/Eastern Europe Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| Turkmenistan Upstream Rating – Overview |
| Turkmenistan Upstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Turkmenistan Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
| Turkmenistan Downstream Rating – Overview |
| Turkmenistan Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Turkmenistan Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
Chapter - Risk Summary |
| Political |
| Economic |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil and Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply and Demand |
| Gas Supply and Demand |
| Refining and Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Turkmenistan Oil & Gas – Historical data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Turkmenistan Other Energy – Historical data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Economic Outlook |
| Table: Turkmenistan - Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Domestic and Foreign Companies |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Downstream Player |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| Eni |
| Dragon Oil |
| Petronas – Summary |
| China National Petroleum Corporation – Summary |
| Gazprom – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| CEE Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| CEE Gas Production (bcm) |
| Turkmenistan Country Overview |
| Turkmenistan Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts |
| Turkmenistan Other Energy – Long-Term Forecasts |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How we generate our industry forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
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Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The new Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.31% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 2.34% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 5.27mn b/d in 2007. It should average 5.36mn b/d in 2008 and then rise to around 5.99mn b/d by 2013. Regional production of 12.92mn b/d in 2007 is forecast to reach 14.96mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2007 consumed 619bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 753bcm targeted for 2013, representing 21.61% growth. Production of 756bcm in 2007 should reach 913bcm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from 137bcm in 2007 to 161bcm by the end of the period. Turkmenistan's share of consumption in 2007 was 3.54%, while its share of production was 8.92%. By 2013, its share of demand is forecast to be 4.49%, with the country accounting for 11.41% of supply.
In Q308, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged US$113.60 per barrel (bbl) – down around 3.4% from the Q208 level. The OPEC basket price averaged US$112.41/bbl in August and US$97.16/bbl in September. In October, we are assuming an average of around US$113.30/bbl. The estimated Q308 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$115.67/bbl for Brent, US$117.22/bbl for WTI and US$113.43/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole are unchanged from the last oil market report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$110/bbl for 2008. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$113.33/bbl, WTI averaging US$114.58/bbl, and Urals at US$110.36/bbl. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will fall from US$110/bbl in 2008 to US$96/bbl in 2009, before settling around US$90/bbl in 2010 onwards.
In terms of our refined products forecasts, the BMI composite (Rotterdam, Singapore and New York) global indicator price for unleaded gasoline is expected to average approximately US$117.50/bbl during 2008. Our jet forecast for 2008 is just under US$141/bbl, up from US$89/bbl in 2007. The 60% annual increase represents the second biggest for the key refined products. With gasoil, BMI is assuming a similar gain in 2008, to an average US$137/bbl. Naphtha is expected to exhibit more modest growth, rising from US$75/bbl to US$106/bbl (+41%). During 2009, we are expecting products prices to follow the underlying crude trend lower, but to prove more resilient than the feedstock – implying a recovery in refining margins. Gasoline in 2009 is estimated at US$103/bbl, with jet falling to US$127/bbl. Gasoil is expected to average US$122/bbl, with naphtha slipping to US$91/bbl.
Turkmenistan’s real GDP growth is estimated by BMI at 7.8% for 2008, following 10.0% in 2007. We are assuming 8.1% growth in 2009, 8.5% in 2010, 9.7% in 2011, followed by 10.0% in 2012 and 10.2% in 2013. Domestic consumption, having tumbled since the 1992, should now have resumed a growth tack, estimated at an average 5.0% per annum. By 2013, the country could be using 138,000b/d of oil. Turkmenistan has traditionally been protective of its onshore basins, allowing international oil companies (IOCs) to participate only in offshore developments. This should help raise national crude and gas liquids output from 198,000b/d in 2007 to 350,000b/d by 2013. Gas production is expected to increase from 67bcm to 104bcm between 2007 and 2013.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Turkmen oil and gas liquids production of 90.3%, with volumes peaking at 400,000b/d in 2015, before falling to 376,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 64.6%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 176,000b/d by 2018. Gas production should rise from the 2007 level of 67bcm to 133bcm by 2018, providing export potential increasing from 46bcm to 84bcm. Details of the new BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Turkmenistan occupies equal 11th place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, alongside Croatia and ahead only of Hungary. Its oil and gas production growth outlook, gas reserves, and asset immaturity work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by a relatively unappealing risk environment. Scope exists for Turkmenistan to overtake Croatia, moving away from the foot of the table. The country is in the lower half of the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, with few particularly high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely over the next few quarters. Oil and gas demand growth prospects represent strong suits, putting the country in 10th place, ahead of Croatia and Bulgaria. Scope exists for Turkmenistan to challenge Slovakia above it.
|
Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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