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Ukraine Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Ukraine Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Ukraine .
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Ukraine ’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Ukrainian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Ukraine .
The Ukraine Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Ukraine to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Ukraine , refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Ukraine .
Business Monitor International's Ukraine Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Ukraine to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Ukrainian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine .
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Ukrainian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Ukraine .
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
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Ukraine Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| Ukraine Political SWOT |
| Ukraine Economic SWOT |
| Ukraine Business Environment SWOT |
Chapter - Ukraine Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Energy Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Central/Eastern Europe Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| Ukraine Upstream Rating – Overview |
| Ukraine Upstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Ukraine Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
| Ukraine Downstream Rating – Overview |
| Ukraine Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Ukraine Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
Chapter - Business Environment |
| Legal Framework |
| Infrastructure |
| Labour Force |
| Foreign Investment Policy |
| Tax Regime |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil and Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply and Demand |
| Gas Supply and Demand |
| Refining and Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Ukraine Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Ukraine Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: Ukraine – Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Players – Ukraine Oil & Gas Sector |
| Overview/State Role |
| Gas Prices |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Key Downstream Players |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| Naftogaz Ukrainy |
| TNK-BP |
| Lukoil Ukraine |
| JKX Oil & Gas |
| Shell – Summary |
| Tatneft – Summary |
| Regal Petroleum – Summary |
| Cadogan – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm) |
| Ukraine Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How we generate our industry forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
|
Ukraine Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The latest Ukraine Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 6.21% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing just 0.49% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.36mn b/d in 2008. It should average 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2008 and then rise to around 5.99mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 8.83mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 13.00mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.44mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.18mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.64mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 8.45mn b/d by 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 637bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 749bcm targeted for 2013, representing 17.5% growth. Production of an estimated 783bcm in 2008 should reach 913bcm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from around 145bcm in 2008 to 164bcm by the end of the period. Ukraine’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 10.35%, while its share of production is put at 2.58%. By 2013, its share of demand is forecast to be 10.47%, with the country accounting for 2.30% of supply.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53/bbl, down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.0/bbl (-45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.0. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.0/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.0 in 2011 and US$70.0/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.0 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.0/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
Ukraine’s real GDP is forecast by BMI to fall by 7.2% for 2009, down from an estimated 4.5% growth in 2008. We are assuming 2.3% growth in 2010, 4.4% in 2011, followed by 4.8% in 2012/13. Reasonable and consistent growth in oil consumption seems likely, averaging up to 3.0% per annum. This suggests that the country will be consuming around 375,000b/d of oil by 2013. With oil production likely to slip back to just 70,000b/d, Ukraine will require imports of at least 305,000b/d by 2013. BMI forecasts that gas demand will rise from an estimated 66bcm in 2008, through 68bcm in 2009 to 78bcm by 2013. Domestic production, largely in the hands of state-owned Naftogaz Ukrainy but with some international oil company (IOC) involvement, should also increase, from an estimated 20bcm in 2008 to at least 22bcm in 2010-2012.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in Ukraine oil and gas liquids production of 34.7%, with volumes falling steadily from the estimated 2008 level of 78,000b/d to 54,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 33.8%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 435,000b/d by 2018. Gas production should peak at around 22bcm in 209-2012, then fall to 18bcm by 2018. Gas imports are set to reach 70.7bcm by 2018. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Ukraine occupies equal sixth place with Slovakia in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, in spite of only modest hydrocarbons resources. Its gas reserves and favourable licensing regime account for much of the upstream score, but country risk factors and privatisation activity are less impressive. Ukraine does not have the potential to challenge Russia above it, and is at some risk from Romania below. The country is in the upper half of the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, this quarter claiming fourth place behind Romania. There are a few high scores, but progress further up the rankings is unlikely over the medium term. There are high scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, retail site intensity and population. Azerbaijan is just two points below it in the regional rankings, so Ukraine could again come under threat during the coming quarters.
|
Ukraine Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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