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BMI's Executive Summary[TOP]
The latest Ukraine Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 5.88% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2011, while providing just 0.49% of supply. CEE regional oil demand rose to an estimated 5.21mn barrels per day (b/d) last year and should average 5.35mn b/d in 2007, before reaching 5.97mn b/d by 2011. Production of an estimated 12.41mn b/d last year is forecast to reach 15.22mn b/d by 2011. CEE gas consumption in 2006 was an estimated 587bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 715bcm targeted for 2011. Production last year of an estimated 680bcm should reach 758bcm by the end of the period. Ukraine's share of consumption in 2006 was an estimated 12.95%, while its share of production was 2.94%. By 2010, its share of demand is forecast to be 12.87%, with the country accounting for 2.90% of supply. For the whole of last year, our estimates of average crude oil prices are US$61.10 for the OPEC basket, US$65.10 for Brent, US$66.20 per barrel (/bbl) for WTI and US$61.30 for Urals. For the first quarter of this year, we have adjusted our forecasts to reflect the weather-induced volatility. The OPEC basket is now expected to have averaged US$54.30/bbl, with Brent at US$57.60; WTI averaging US$58.70 and Urals at US$54.00/bbl. Our projections for 2007 as a whole are barely changed from the last quarterly report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$55/bbl. Based on last year's typical price differentials, this implies Brent at US$58.80, WTI averaging US$59.90/bbl, and Urals at US$55.30/bbl. Ukraine's real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 6.0% for 2007, down from 7.0% in 2006. We are assuming 5.5% growth in 2008, followed by 5.0% per annum during 2009-11. Reasonable and consistent growth in oil consumption seems likely, averaging approximately 3.0% per annum. This suggests that the country will be consuming around 351,000b/d of oil by 2011. With oil production likely to slip back to just 75,000b/d, Ukraine will require imports of at least 276,000b/d by 2011. BMI forecasts that gas demand will rise from an estimated 75.8bcm in 2006, through 78.8bcm in 2007 to 99.2bcm by 2011. Domestic production, largely in the hands of state-owned Naftogaz Ukrainy but with some international oil company (IOC) involvement, should also increase, from an estimated 19.5bcm last year to at least 22bcm in 2010/11. In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Ukraine now receives a lower composite score of 22, which still ranks the country 12th and last of 12 states included in the CEE region. The overall business environment can be considered very unattractive, due largely to high levels of perceived political and economic risk, only moderate progress in deregulation and competition, plus limited growth potential in oil and gas production. The country's reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) is above average for the region, but the prospects, licensing framework and regulatory regime do little to attract investment from leading IOCs. |
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Contents[TOP] Chapter 1 - Executive SummaryChapter 2 - SWOT AnalysisUkraine Political SWOT Ukraine Economic SWOT Ukraine Business Environment SWOT Chapter 3 - Regional Market OverviewCentral/Eastern Europe Region Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) Ukraine Chapter 4 - Business Environment RankingsUkraine Central/Eastern Europe Region Chapter 5 - Ukraine Business Environment RankingEconomics – Long-term Risk Politics – Long-term Risk Oil & Gas Growth Oil/Gas Reserves Licensing/Regulation Competitive Environment Political Risk Summary Economic Risk Summary Business Environment Risk Summary Legal Code/Corruption Foreign Direct Investment Tax Regime Chapter 6 - Oil Market OutlookTable: Crude Price Forecasts 2006 Revised Forecasts Table: Oil Price Forecasts Chapter 7 - Regional Supply and DemandCentral/Eastern Europe Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Central/Eastern Europe Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Central/Eastern Europe Chapter 8 - Global PictureTable: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) Chapter 9 - Industry Forecast ScenarioOil and Gas Reserves Oil Supply and Demand Gas Supply and Demand Refining and Oil Products Trade Revenues/Import Costs Table: Ukraine Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts Other Energy Table: Ukraine Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario Chapter 10 - Economic OutlookTable: Ukraine: Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts Chapter 11 - Country Snapshot: Ukraine Demographic DataSection 1: Population: Table: Demographic Indicators (2005) Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown Section 2: Education & Healthcare Table: Education Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics Table: Healthcare: Expenditure Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power Table: Employment Indicators Table: Consumption and Stratification Table: Wages per year Chapter 12 - Regional Case StudyEmerging Player Table: Lukoil Investment* Chapter 13 - Competitive LandscapeExecutive Summary Table: Key Players – Ukraine Oil & Gas Sector Overview/State Role JKX – Summary TNK-BP – Summary Lukoil – Summary Shell – Summary Table: Key Upstream Players Tatneft – Summary Table: Key Downstream Players Rosneft – Summary Others – Summary Chapter 14 - Company MonitorNaftogaz Ukrainy TNK-BP Lukoil Ukraine Chapter 15 - BMI Forecast ModellingHow we generate our industry forecasts Energy Industry Cross checks Sources Chapter 16 - Appendix: Regional Demographic DataTable: Wages (ave labour force per annum), US$ PPP Table: Population Table: Household Spending Per Capita, US$ Table: Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP Table: Market Size, GDP, US$bn
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Network of European Oil & Gas Sources[TOP] BMI's European Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil and gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: |
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