BMI's Executive Summary

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The latest US Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 90.09% of North American regional oil demand by 2011, while contributing 67.81% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption reached 22.85mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2006. It is set to rise to around 24.14mn b/d by 2011. In terms of natural gas, the North America region in 2006 consumed 717bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 825bcm targeted for 2011, representing 15.2% growth. Production of 711bcm in 2006 should fall to 635bcm in 2011, which implies net imports rising from 6bcm in 2006 to some 190bcm by the end of the period. The US share of gas consumption in 2006 was 86.51%, while it provided 73.70% of production. By 2011, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 87.07%, with 72.44% of production.

Global oil demand growth is now expected to be 1.9% in 2007, down from our June 2007 forecast, but with Asia Pacific and the CEE regions dominating. While oil demand growth assumptions remain robust, there are early signs that future revisions will be on the downside as factors such as the credit crunch kick in. The overall demand outlook for the period to 2011 remains healthy, but subject to review if the macroeconomic outlook deteriorates. Our projections for 2007 as a whole are revised upwards from the last quarterly report. We are now assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$64 per barrel, compared with the US$59 estimate provided by our last quarterly report. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$67.81, WTI averaging US$66.18/bbl, and Urals at US$64.43/bbl.

US real GDP growth is now estimated by BMI at 2.0% for 2007, down from 3.3% in 2006. We are assuming 2.1% growth in 2008, 2.7% in 2009, followed by 2.9% in 2010 and 2.7% in 2011. Average US oil and liquids production is now estimated at 7.25mn b/d in 2007. After the expected 2007 recovery, the expected underlying output decline resumes and, by 2011, we are forecasting output of 6.95mn b/d. Our estimate for 2007 US oil demand is 20.82mn b/d. Oil demand grows typically at around half the underlying rate of GDP expansion, although 'boom' years for the economy tend to push oil demand appreciably higher. Our estimates suggest that oil consumption could grow by 1.1% per annum over the next few years if the US economy remains on track to deliver a minimum 2-3% annual growth. We therefore see US oil consumption hitting 21.75mn b/d by 2011. This would require crude imports of 14.79mn b/d.

Our long-term political rating is 85.2, well above the global average of 65.2, and just above the Developed Markets average of 84.9, but below and Canada's 93.3. Our long-term economic rating is 71.2, which compares with a global average of 60.5, the Developed Markets average of 72.5 and again puts the US well behind Canada (80.9). Our business environment rating is 75.2, which is the thirdhighest of the developed markets group. The US is a de-regulated, highly competitive and relatively mature energy market. There are numerous international and domestic companies operating at all levels, from exploration, through pipelines, refining and retailing. The market is dominated by US-based organisations, with Britain's BP the biggest foreign investor, followed by Royal Dutch Shell.

Contents

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Executive Summary

Chapter 1 - Canada Energy Market Overview

Chapter 2 - Global Oil Market Overview

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)

Chapter 3 - Oil Price Outlook

Brave New World

Living In Hope

Non-OPEC Uncertainty

OPEC Undecided?

All Eyes On Supply

Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2007/08

Revised Forecasts

Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter 4 - Regional Energy Market Overview

Oil Supply And Demand

Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)

Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d)

Oil: Downstream

Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)

Gas Supply And Demand

Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)

Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm)

Liquefied Natural Gas

Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/Exports (bcm)

Chapter 5 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Oil and Gas Reserves

Oil Supply and Demand

Gas Supply and Demand

LNG

Refining and Oil Products Trade

Revenues/Import Costs

Table: Canada Oil & Gas - Historic Data & Forecasts

Other Energy

Table: Canada Other Energy - Historic Data & Forecasts

Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario

Chapter 6 - Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Canada - Macroeconomic Forecasts

Chapter 7 - Eni - More Activities in Americas

Table: Eni's Q108 Results

Chapter 8 - Competitive Landscape

Table: Key Players - Canadian Oil And Gas Sector

Overview/State Role

Table: Key Upstream Players

Table: Key Downstream Players

Chapter 9 - Company Monitor

EnCana - Summary

Petro-Canada - Summary

ConocoPhillips - Summary

Chevron - Summary

Devon Energy - Summary

Syncrude - Summary

Suncor - Summary

Shell Canada - Summary

BP - Summary

Imperial Oil - Summary

Others - Summary

Chapter 10 - Glossary of Terms

Chapter 11 - Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology

Introduction

Ratings Overview

Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure

Indicators

Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology

Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology

Chapter 12 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Energy Industry

Cross checks

Sources

Competitive Landscape for Americas Oil & Gas Reports: Sample of  Companies Ranked

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At-a-glance perspective on the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing each market's oil & gas industry. BMI also provides similar economic and business environment studies. Company SWOTs (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) covering all leading oil & gas companies operating in each market, including competitive intelligence on geographic presence and competitive positioning of multinationals against local companies; leading products, services and brands; sales and local market share; foreign direct investment, projects, partners and acquisition strategy. Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets, number of employees and registration dates. BMI analyses each companys performance, market position, strategy and investment potential.

Network of American Oil & Gas Sources

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BMI's American Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil & gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: