|
Venezuela Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The Venezuela Oil & Gas Report
- Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Venezuela.
- Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Venezuela’s oil and gas industry.
- Competitive intelligence, Venezuelan oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Venezuela.
The Venezuela Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Venezuela to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Venezuela, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Venezuela.
Business Monitor International's Venezuela Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Venezuelan oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Venezuela to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan oil and gas market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Venezuelan Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
- Exploit The Latest Competitive Venezuelan Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Venezuela.
Coverage
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
- Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
- Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
- Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
- Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
- Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
|
Venezuela Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Chapter - Executive Summary |
| SWOT Analysis |
| Venezuela Political SWOT Analysis |
| Venezuela Economic SWOT Analysis |
| Venezuela Business Environment SWOT Analysis |
Chapter - Venezuela Energy Market Overview |
| Global Oil Market Outlook |
| Storing Up Trouble |
| Revised Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review |
| One-Way Traffic |
| Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Demand Outlook |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| 12-Month Supply Outlook |
| Longer-Term Supply And Demand |
| Oil Price Assumptions |
| Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009 |
| Table: Oil Price Forecasts |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook |
| Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl) |
| Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) |
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review |
| Regional Energy Market Overview |
| Oil Supply And Demand |
| Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Oil: Downstream |
| Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Gas Supply And Demand |
| Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Table: Latin America LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) |
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking |
| Latin America Region |
| Composite Scores |
| Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating |
| Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating |
| Upstream Scores |
| Downstream Scores |
| Venezuela Upstream Rating – Overview |
| Venezuela Upstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Venezuela Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
| Venezuela Downstream Rating – Overview |
| Venezuela Downstream Rating – Potential Returns |
| Venezuela Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns |
Chapter - Business Environment |
| Legal Framework |
| Infrastructure |
| Labour Force |
| Foreign Investment Policy |
| Tax Regime |
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario |
| Oil and Gas Reserves |
| Oil Supply and Demand |
| Gas Supply and Demand |
| Liquefied Natural Gas |
| Refining and Oil Products Trade |
| Revenues/Import Costs |
| Table: Venezuela Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Other Energy |
| Table: Venezuela Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts |
| Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario |
| Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook |
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook |
| Table: Venezuela - Economic Activity |
Chapter - Competitive Landscape |
Executive Summary |
| Table: Key Players In Venezuela's Oil & Gas Sector |
| Overview/State Role |
| Table: Key Upstream Players |
| Table: Key Downstream Players |
Chapter - Company Monitor |
| PdVSA |
| Chevron |
| Total Venezuela |
| Repsol YPF Venezuela |
| BP – Summary |
| ExxonMobil – Summary |
| OMV – Summary |
| StatoilHydro – Summary |
| Eni – Summary |
| Petrobras – Summary |
| Shell – Summary |
| Perenco – Summary |
| Conoco Venezuela – Summary |
| Others – Summary |
Chapter - Glossary of Terms |
| Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology |
| Introduction |
| Ratings Overview |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure |
| Indicators |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology |
| Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology |
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts |
| Global Oil Demand |
| Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d) |
| Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Global Oil Supply |
| Global Gas Demand |
| Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm) |
| Global Gas Supply |
| Table: Global Gas Production (bcm) |
| Regional Oil Demand |
| Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d) |
| Regional Oil Supply |
| Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) |
| Regional Refining Capacity |
| Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) |
| Regional Gas Demand |
| Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm) |
| Regional Gas Supply |
| Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) |
| Venezuela Country Overview |
| Methodology & Risks To Forecasts |
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling |
| How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts |
| Energy Industry |
| Cross checks |
| Sources |
|
Venezuela Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
The latest Venezuela Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 8.27% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 26.90% of supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.66mn b/d in 2001 reached an estimated 7.72mn b/d in 2008. It should average 7.86mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 8.58mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was just under 10.40mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 9.99mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.78mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are slipping, because demand growth is exceeding the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.73mn b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 2.27mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to be 2.21mn b/d in 2013.
In terms of natural gas, the Latin America region in 2008 consumed an estimated 194bcm, with demand of 266bcm targeted for 2013, representing 45% growth. Estimated production of 208bcm in 2008 should reach 294bcm in 2013, and implies 28bcm of net exports the end of the period. Venezuela contributed an estimated 15.99% to 2008 regional gas consumption, while producing 14.87%. By 2013, it is expected to consume 20.49% of the region’s gas, while contributing 20.07% to supply.
In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53/bbl, down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% y-o-y increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (-45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.
In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.
Venezuela’s real GDP is forecast to contract by 5.6% in 2009, following growth of an estimated growth 4.8% in 2008. We are now assuming a 1.7% contraction in 2010, with growth of 3.4% in 2011, followed by 2.8% in 2012 and 2.6% in 2013. State-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PdVSA) works in co-operation with numerous international oil company (IOC) partners in conventional and heavy oil projects. While recent re-nationalisation moves, changes in taxation and alterations to the licensing system have reduced foreign involvement, several key players appear committed to the country. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of 2.90mn b/d by 2013, with the country expected to pump 2.60mn b/d in 2009. Consumption is forecast to increase by around 3% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 709,000b/d by this point. The export capability would thus be about 2.19mn b/d by 2013. Gas production is forecast to rise from an estimated 31bcm in 2008 to 59bcm over the period, allowing 4.4bcm of exports by 2013.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Venezuelan oil production of 24.4%, with liquids volumes rising steadily from 2.61mn b/d to 3.25mn b/d. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 37.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 822,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise steadily, from around 31bcm in 2008 to 78bcm in 2018. With demand growth of 145%, this implies export potential rising to more than 8bcm by 2018. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Venezuela now ranks second behind Brazil in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, having lost ground in spite of its vast hydrocarbons resource base. It is unlikely to take the outright regional lead unless the overall risk situation improves dramatically. Peru is now just one behind. As well as high scores for reserves, production growth potential and reserves-to-production ratios (RPR), Venezuela benefits from the substantial (but decreasing) number of international companies active within its upstream industry. The country now ranks equal sixth with Chile in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its refining capacity, retail site intensity and growth in GDP per capita. Peru above is probably out of reach, while Mexico – just two points behind – may eventually be able to mount a challenge.
|
Venezuela Oil & Gas Report |
Was: $1030.00 | |
| Now: $875.00 | ||
| You save: $155.00 (15%) |
Africa |
| Algeria, Angola, Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan |
Asia |
| Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam |
Caribbean |
| Trinidad & Tobago |
Europe |
| Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and United Kingdom |
Latin America |
| Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru |
Middle East |
| Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates |
North America |
| Canada and United States |
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