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BMI's Executive Summary[TOP]
The latest Venezuela Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 8.44% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2011, while providing 29.13% of supply. Latin America regional oil demand rose to an estimated 6.87mn barrels per day (b/d) last year. It should average 7.01mn b/d in 2007 and then rise to around 7.82mn b/d by 2011. Regional oil production was last year estimated at 10.97mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.85mn b/d by 2011. In terms of natural gas, the region last year consumed an estimated 183bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 271bcm targeted for 2011, for 48% growth. Production of an estimated 191bcm in 2006 should reach 272bcm in 2011, implying just 2bcm of net exports the end of the period. Venezuela contributed around 17.49% to 2006 regional gas consumption, while producing an estimated 16.75%. By 2011, it is expected to consume 16.24% of the region's gas, while contributing 17.65% to supply. For the whole of last year, our estimates of average crude oil prices are US$61.10 for the OPEC basket, US$65.10 for Brent, US$66.20/bbl for WTI and US$61.30 for Urals. For the first quarter of this year, we have adjusted our forecasts to reflect the weather-induced volatility. The OPEC basket is now expected to have averaged US$54.30/bbl, with Brent at US$57.60; WTI averaging US$58.70 and Urals at US$54.00/bbl. Our projections for 2007 as a whole are barely changed from the last quarterly report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$55 per barrel. Based on last year's typical price differentials, this implies Brent at US$58.80, WTI averaging US$59.90/bbl, and Urals at US$55.30/bbl. Venezuelan real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 3.5% for 2007, down from an estimated 10.3% in 2006. We are assuming 3.2% growth in 2008, followed by 3.0% in 2009-11. State-owned PdVSA works in co-operation with numerous international oil company (IOC) partners in conventional and heavy oil projects. While recent changes in taxation and the licensing system may reduce foreign involvement, most key players appear committed to the country. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 3.45mn b/d by 2011, with the country expected to pump 3.00mn b/d this year. Consumption is forecast to increase by around 3% per annum to 2011, implying demand of 660,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The export capability would therefore be approximately 2.79mn b/d by 2011. Gas production is forecast to increase from last year's estimated 31.5bcm to 48bcm over the period, matched by consumption. In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Venezuela receives an unchanged composite score of 26, ranking it in country outright seventh out of nine states included in the region. The overall business environment can be considered unattractive in a regional context, thanks largely to the country's perceived high levels of economic and political risk, plus the demanding licensing and production sharing regime. However, the country has considerable untapped hydrocarbons potential, with a high reserves-toproduction ratio (RPR), significant output growth potential and an established competitive framework. Numerous IOCs are active in the upstream segment, but some have been re-assessing their exposure to Venezuela. |
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Contents[TOP] Chapter 1 - Executive BriefChapter 2 - SWOT AnalysisVenezuela Economic SWOT Venezuela Political SWOT Venezuela Business Environment SWOT Chapter 3 - Regional Market OverviewLatin America Region Venezuela Chapter 4 - Business Environment RankingsVenezuela Latin America Region Chapter 5 - Business Environment RankingEconomics – Long-Term Risk Politics – Long-Term Risk Oil & Gas Growth Oil/Gas Reserves Licensing/Regulation Competitive Environment Chapter 6 - Business Environment OverviewPolitical Risk Summary Economic Risk Summary Business Environment Risk Summary Legal Code/Corruption Foreign Direct Investment Tax Regime Chapter 7 - Oil Market OutlookTable: Crude Price Forecasts 2006 Revised Forecasts Table: Oil Price Forecasts Chapter 8 - Regional Supply and DemandLatin America Table: Oil Production (000b/d) – Latin America Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) – Latin America Chapter 9 - Global PictureTable: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) Chapter 10 - Industry Forecast ScenarioOil and Gas Reserves Oil Supply and Demand Gas Supply and Demand LNG Refining and Oil Products Trade Revenues/Import Costs Table Venezuela Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts Other Energy Table: Venezuela Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario Chapter 11 - Economic OutlookTable: Economic Activity Indicators Chapter 12 - Regional Case StudyInvestment Needed To Fulfil Venezuelan Potential Strategic Vision Export Commitments Regional Position Chapter 13 - Competitive LandscapeExecutive Summary Table: Key Players: Venezuela Oil & Gas Sector Overview/State Role Chevron – Summary Total – Summary BP – Summary ConocoPhillips – Summary Table: Key Upstream Players RepsolYPF – Summary ExxonMobil – Summary OMV – Summary Statoil – Summary Table: Key Downstream Players Eni – Summary Petrobras – Summary PetroCanada – Summary Shell – Summary Perenco – Summary Chapter 14 - Company MonitorPdVSA Chevron SWOT Analysis Conoco Venezuela Company Analysis Total Venezuela Company Analysis SWOT Analysis RepsolYPF Venezuela Company Analysis SWOT Analysis Chapter 15 - BMI Forecast ModellingHow We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Energy Industry Cross checks Sources Wages (ave per annum), US$ Population Household Spending Per Capita, US$ Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP Market Size, GDP, US$bn
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Network of Latin American Oil & Gas Sources[TOP] BMI's Latin American Oil & Gas Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, oil & gas industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: |
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