BMI's Executive Summary

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Bulgaria's pharmaceutical market is expected to experience strong growth over the next five years, reaching a valuation of approximately US$1.38bn in 2012. The market prospects have been improved by the recent alignment of local legislation with EU requirements, as well as by the country's removal from the 'Special 301' Watch List of countries with questionable intellectual property (IP) regimes, although Bulgaria has yet to catch up with the rest of the EU in this area.

In the meantime, generic drugs, which account for over 30% of the market by value, are likely to gain further market share over the next five years, driven by the cost-containment programme, pressures on physicians and patients to use generic pharmaceuticals rather than patented medicines, and the strong local manufacture of copy products. Their quality has been significantly improved by the EU membership requirements, which have already led to the withdrawal of many older, poorer quality and copy medicines. Some of the larger local companies (backed by foreign capital and ownership) are now in a position to offer strong export portfolios, having implemented GMP standards in domestic production.

Similarly, although relatively modest at present, the development of the over-the-counter (OTC) market will be significant, stimulated by increasing health awareness among consumers, vertical and horizontal integration of the sector, as well as strong advertising support for such products and the focus on cost containment in healthcare.

BMI's revised Business Environment Rankings for Q108 recognise the above improvements, with Bulgaria placed in a joint third position (alongside Hungary and above more developed markets, such as Slovenia and Poland) of the 15 Central & Eastern European (CEE) surveyed. Foreign players will be further encouraged by the ongoing healthcare system reforms, despite some question marks over their direction by critics of privatisation initiatives.

Overall, foreign drugmakers continue to make gains on their Bulgarian peers, both in terms of sales volumes and value. According to BMI's forecasts, foreign firms will out-sell domestic manufacturers in 2007, especially as larger international players become more interested in acquiring local companies. On the other hand, domestic manufacturers will have the opportunity to increase their export segments, in view of their improved manufacturing standards that are aligned with EU regulations, as well as foreign backing in some cases.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare SWOT

Bulgaria Political SWOT

Bulgaria Economic SWOT

Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 - Bulgaria: Business Environment Ranking

Business Environment Ranking

Economics - Long-Term Risk

Politics - Long-Term Risk

Regulatory Barriers

Domestic Sector Threat

Market Growth Potential

Market Size Ranking

Chapter 3 - Market Summary

Chapter 4 - Regulatory Regime

Healthcare Information System

Intellectual Property Environment

Intellectual Property Deficiencies

EU Accession

Corruption And Counterfeit Drugs

Pricing And Reimbursement

Table: Wholesale Mark-Ups

Table: Retail Mark-Ups

Recent Pricing And Reimbursement Developments

Chapter 5 - Industry Developments

Healthcare Sector

Health Status

National Healthcare Plan

Introduction Of Patient E-Cards

Healthcare Insurance

Healthcare Debt

Local Pharmaceutical Industry

Table: Pharmacies & Pharmacy Market Ratios

Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry

Recent Activities Of Foreign Companies

Clinical Trials

Chapter 6 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Overall Market Forecast

Table: Drug Market Indicators

Key Growth Factors - Industry

Table: Health Expenditure Indicators

Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic

Table: GDP, Population & Output

Prescription Market Forecast

Table: Prescription Market Indicators

OTC Market Forecast

Table: OTC Market Indicators

Generics And Branded Market Forecast

Table: Generics And Branded Market Indicators

Export/Import Market Forecasts

Table: Sectoral Trade Indicators

Other Healthcare Data Forecasts

Table: Other Healthcare Data Forecasts

Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario

Chapter 7 - Competitive Landscape

Chapter 8 - Company Monitor

Actavis

Pfizer

Merck & Co

Sanofi-Aventis

Novartis

GSK

Indigenous Companies

Sopharma

Biovet

Chapter 9 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Technical Process

Pharmaceutical Industry

Sources

Competitive Landscape for Europe Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare: Sample of Companies Ranked

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Cross-border analysis of regulatory systems comparing the patenting environment, summarising regional pricing and reimbursement factors and monitoring the growth of the Pharmaceuticals sector across the region. Company SWOTs cover leading multinational and national drug companies operating in each market.

Network of European Pharmaceutical & Healthcare Sources

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BMI's Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, pharmaceutical & healthcare industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: