BMI's Executive Summary

[TOP]

Colombia's drug market was estimated to be worth US$2.36bn by the end of 2007, making it the fourth largest in Latin America. It is expected to grow strongly, experiencing 8.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to reach US$3.6bn by 2012. While this represents a slower rate of expansion than that seen in recent years, the market should grow at one of the fastest rates in Latin America. Drivers of growth will include the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) with the US, which is still awaiting ratification and overall economic growth, which should continue to ramp up over the forecast period to reach 6% in real terms in 2012.

For Q108, BMI has overhauled its Business Environment Ratings methodology. Colombia is placed fifth alongside Brazil in the Americas rankings table, which is expanded to include the North American markets of the US and Canada. While the demographics of the country such as a young, slowlyexpanding population may put limits on the future potential for market growth, solid economic expansion should override this to some extent. Meanwhile, the country's political stability has improved markedly in recent years, mirroring friendly US relations.

A real test for the market and the reform credentials of President �lvaro Uribe is the ongoing attempt to modernise the health insurance system. In January 2007, the administration launched a major reform of the Institute of Social Services (ISS) as well as increase contributions to and redefine the benefits provided under the POS (obligatory health schemes) covering millions of Colombians. The use of private and public-private entities to manage state-backed care is a pillar of the Colombian system and the moves aim to introduce clarity and cost effectiveness. But in practice, it has sewn at least short-term confusion, with patients and insurers alike unclear about the legally-mandated benefits and rates. Added clarity and clearer rules would benefit everyone involved and reduce disruption to the wider healthcare market.

As a consequence of opaque intellectual property (IP) laws and, related to this, the continued uncertainty over when the US-Colombia FTA will be ratified, new multinational activity remains relatively muted – as firms most likely wait to see how regulatory developments pan out. The head of Novartis' Latin American business noted in September that the gap between rhetoric and reality remained wide on the ground. Indeed, major recent commitments to market have come from smaller players such as Italian generics maker Zambon – which sees the market as a key driver of sales growth for its Brazilian-made products – and Chile's Laboratorios Andrómaco S.A, which acquired three smaller local drugmakers.

Contents

[TOP]

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Colombia Pharmaceuticals Industry SWOT

Colombia Political SWOT Analysis

Colombia Economic SWOT Analysis

Colombia Business Environment SWOT Analysis

Chapter 2 - Colombia: Business Environment Ranking

Business Environment Ranking

Economics - Long-Term Risk

Politics - Long-Term Risk

Regulatory Barriers

Domestic Sector Threat

Market Growth Potential

Market Size Ranking

Chapter 3 - Colombia: Market Summary

Table: Colombia - Private Market Spending By Pathology (2004)

Chapter 4 - Regulatory Regime

Intellectual Property Environment

Pricing and Reimbursement Issues

Other Regulatory Issues

Chapter 5 - Industry Developments

Healthcare Sector

Pharmaceutical Sector

Chapter 6 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Overall Market Forecast

Table: Drug Market Indicators

Key Growth Factors - Industry

Table: Health Expenditure Trends

Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic

Table: Economic Activity - Historical Data And Forecasts

Prescription Market Forecast

Table: Colombia Prescription Market Forecasts

OTC Market Forecasts

Table: Colombia OTC Market Forecasts

Generics Market Forecast

Table: Generic Market Trends

Export/Import Forecasts

Table: Pharmaceuticals Exports & Imports Forecasts

Other Healthcare Data Forecasts

Table: Healthcare Data Forecasts

Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario

Chapter 7 - Competitive Landscape

Overview

Chapter 8 - Company Monitor

Leading Multinationals

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)

Pfizer

Merck & Co

Sanofi-Aventis

Novartis

Indigenous Manufacturer Profiles

Tecnoquímicas

Lafrancol

Chapter 9 - Latin America: Regional Market Overview

BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Technical Process

Pharmaceutical Industry

Sources

Chapter 10 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Wages (ave per annum), US$

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Chapter 11 - Country Snapshot: Colombia Demographic Dat

Section 1: Population

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Competitive Landscape for Latin America Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare: Sample of Companies Ranked

[TOP]

Cross-border analysis of regulatory systems comparing the patenting environment, summarising regional pricing and reimbursement factors and monitoring the growth of the Pharmaceuticals sector across the region. Company SWOTs cover leading multinational and national drug companies operating in each market.

Network of Latin American Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Sources

[TOP]

BMI's Latin American Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, pharmaceuticals industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: