BMI's Executive Summary

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French drug expenditure reached US$31.3bn in 2006 and should continue to exhibit reasonable growth over the forecast period, as the government struggles to contain health costs and curb traditionally high consumption patterns. One key trend that BMI sees emerging is a gradual liberalisation of the over-thecounter (OTC) market, as the government increasingly attempts to shift the burden of drug expenditure away from the state.

Such plans could come under threat from industry stakeholders, such as pharmacist organisations, which are likely to oppose any erosion of their power. Yet, BMI believes that there is a certain inevitability about the reforms and has adjusted its forecasts accordingly. By 2012, we believe that self-medication will make up around 10% of the total drug market, up from 7.7% in 2006. Meanwhile, growth should be robust in the generics sector as the French continue their new found love for the low-cost products. Planned legislation could include punishing patients who refuse generic substitution.

The accession of Nicolas Sarkozy to the Presidency, armed with a reformist agenda, is already having a notable impact on the health sector. The French government has now announced its budget for 2008, which includes a number of reforms designed to reduce the projected social security budget to EUR8.9bn (US$12.7bn). Without changes to the system, policymakers feared that the deficit could have been as large as EUR13.0bn (US$18.4bn) by the end of next year. BMI believes that the drug sector will bare most of the brunt of the austerities, with the new budget, for example, including a special 1% tax on sales of reimbursed medicines.

Meanwhile, France takes third place in BMI's revised Business Environment Rankings for the Western European region. We have completely overhauled the methodology giving greater weight to regulatory factors affecting the drug market, while utilising a more nuanced analysis of country-specific economic and political factors. France's position derives mainly from its generous reimbursement system and high per-capita pharmaceutical expenditure, although bureaucracy can be stultifying at times.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

France Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry SWOT

France Political SWOT

France Economic SWOT

Chapter 2 - France: Business Environment Rankings

Western Europe Region

Table: Western Europe Business Environment Rankings

Business Environment Ranking

Economics - Long Term risk

Politics - Long Term risk

Regulatory Barriers

Domestic Sector Threat

Market Growth Potential

Market Size Ranking

Chapter 3 - France: Market Summary

Chapter 4 - Regulatory Regime

Intellectual Property Developments

Pricing & Reimbursement Issues

Chapter 5 - Industry Developments

Healthcare Sector

Public Health Issues

Pharmaceutical Sector

Domestic Industry

Foreign Companies

Product Approvals

R&D Sector

Biotechnology Sector

Table: New French Taxes On Private-Sector Research Applications

Parallel Trade

Table: First Parallel Imports In France

Clinical Research

Pharmacy Sector

Epidemiology

Wholesale Sector

Generics Sector

Chapter 6 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Overall Market Forecast

Table: France Drug Market Expenditure Forecast Indicators

Key Factors - Industry

Table: France Health Expenditure Forecast Indicators

Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic

Table: France - Macroeconomic Forecasts

Prescription Market Forecast

Table: France Prescription Drugs Market Forecast Indicators

OTC Market Forecast

Table: France OTC Drugs Market Forecast Indicators

Generics And Branded Market Forecasts

Table: France Generics and Branded Drugs Market Forecast Indicators

Export/Import Forecasts

Table: Sectoral trade indicators

Other Healthcare Data & Forecasts

Table: Socio-demographic Indicators

Key Risks To BMI's Forecasts

Chapter 7 - Country Snapshot: France Demographic Data

Section 1: Population

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption And Stratification

Table: Wages Per Year

Chapter 8 - Company Profiles

Leading Multinational Manufacturers

Sanofi-Aventis

Pfizer

GlaxoSmithKline

Novartis

Merck & Co

Servier

Ipsen

Chapter 9 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Technical Process

Pharmaceutical Industry

Competitive Landscape for Europe Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare: Sample of Companies Ranked

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Cross-border analysis of regulatory systems comparing the patenting environment, summarising regional pricing and reimbursement factors and monitoring the growth of the Pharmaceuticals sector across the region. Company SWOTs cover leading multinational and national drug companies operating in each market.

Network of European Pharmaceutical & Healthcare Sources

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BMI's Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, pharmaceutical & healthcare industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: