Executive Summary

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The extremely promising Indian pharmaceutical market is at risk of losing foreign investment if it does not upgrade its intellectual property framework to international standards. Demonstrating this, following its defeat in the August 2007 court case, Swiss multinational Novartis announced that it would reduce investment in the country in favour of regional rival China. Nevertheless, India presents numerous opportunities for drugmakers, such as low-cost manufacturing. For the US$11.2bn market, BMI is projecting CAGR of 7.93% through to 2011.

The court case with Novartis involved the company arguing that India's patent laws were unconstitutional. Novartis claimed that the legislation, which restricts the issuing of patents to products that provide more than 'incremental' improvements, contradicted international trade laws. However, the court rejected the challenge on the ground that it does not have jurisdiction over whether Indian patent regulations are in compliance with World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.

Subsequently, a leading representative of the WTO said that India must update its patent laws to international standards, thereby truly encouraging and rewarding innovation. It is BMI's view that the change is inevitable as the reform will benefit domestic drugmakers, which are increasingly involved in R&D, as well as foreign players. If changes are not undertaken, investment in the country will fall, severely hampering economic development.

Meanwhile, The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) believes that it would cost approximately US$200bn over the next five years to solve the crisis in Indian healthcare. According to study conducted by the FICCI, even though 72% of India's population lives in rural areas, 80% of doctors, 75% of dispensaries and 60% of hospitals are in urban areas.

India's retail pharmacy market is highly fragmented and dominated by archaic independent kiosks. Modernisation is the emerging trend and the ultimate consequence of this is consolidation of small players, instigated by the large chains. Furthermore, operators are expanding out of the historical middleclass customer base to the challenging low-income demographic, both in rural areas and urban conurbations. Low margins are to be expected but increased brand awareness to vast numbers of new consumers will ensure long-term stability and growth.

The market for prescription anti-obesity medicines in India is expected to achieve phenomenal 50% yearon- year growth over the next five years, making it the most attractive pharmaceutical industry sub-sector in BMI's universe. Multinationals such as Roche, Sanofi-Aventis and Abbott Laboratories will reap some returns with their patented products, but local generic drug companies – such as Torrent and Zydus Cadila – are destined to capture greater market share.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Table: Jordan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry SWOT

Chapter 2 - Jordan: Business Environment Ranking

Table: Business Environment Ranking: Middle East & Africa

Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-term Risk

Politics – Long-term Risk

Regulatory Barriers

Domestic Sector Threat

Market Growth Potential

Market Size Ranking

Chapter 3 - Market Summary

Table: Production And Revenues Of Leading Jordanian Pharmaceutical Manufacturers

Chapter 4 - Regulatory Regime

Intellectual Property Developments

Pricing & Reimbursement Issues

Chapter 5 - Industry Developments

Healthcare Sector

Pharmaceuticals Sector

Company Developments

Market Access

Research & Development Sector

Chapter 6 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Key Growth Factors – Industry

Table: Jordan Drug Market Expenditure Forecasts

Macroeconomic Forecast

Table: Economic Activity

Prescription Market Forecast

Table: Prescription Market Forecasts

OTC Market Forecast

Table: OTC Market Forecasts

Generics Market Forecast

Table: Generics Market Forecasts

Import/Export Forecasts

Table: Sectoral Trade Indicators

Other Healthcare Data Forecasts

Table: Other Healthcare Data Forecasts

Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Chapter 7 - Competitive Landscape

Chapter 8 - Company Profiles

Arab Pharmaceutical Manufacturers (APM)

Dar Al Dawa (DAD)

Hikma Pharmaceuticals

Jordanian Pharmaceutical Manufacturing (JPM)

Chapter 9 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Pharmaceutical Industry

Sources

Chapter 10 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

The Long View: Data Over The Economic Cycle (2000-2007)

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Chapter 11 - Country Snapshot: Jordan Demographic Data

Section 1: Population

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Consumption And Stratification

Table: Wages Per Year

Competitive Landscape for Asia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare: Sample of Companies Ranked

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Cross-border analysis of regulatory systems comparing the patenting environment, summarising regional pricing and reimbursement factors and monitoring the growth of the Pharmaceuticals sector across the region. Company SWOTs cover leading multinational and national drug companies operating in each market.

Network of Asian Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Sources

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BMI's Asian Pharmaceuticals Healthcare Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, pharmaceuticals & healthcare industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: