Executive Summary

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Nigeria's position as the dominant economy in western Africa, and its high disease burden, will ensure it remains an important pharmaceutical market and gateway to surrounding countries. Despite its position as Africa's most populous nation, drug consumption among the 140mn population is low – a factor that contributes to making the Nigerian pharmaceutical market one of the smallest that BMI monitors in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. The potential for growth in the market is tempered by a serious lack of healthcare funding, discriminatory policies against imports and a patchy intellectual property (IP) regime.

Nigeria is once again placed 13th out of the 14 MEA region countries that make up BMI's adjusted Business Environment rankings, ahead of only Zimbabwe. Nigeria's continued poor showing reflects the low drug expenditure and import regulations that are weighted in favour of domestic producers. The most important factor that will hold back market growth over the medium-term is the absence of a coherent or adequate regulatory regime, deterring foreign investors. The market is currently worth US$218mn. BMI expects slow growth over the next five years, with the market reaching only US$270mn in 2011. Expenditure per capita is expected to remain very low at US$2.

Recently, the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) has made a concerted effort to clamp down on rampant counterfeiting with some success. These moves have helped to reduce the authority's corrupt reputation, although it remains to be seen whether the government as a whole is able to shake off this billing.

In terms of the domestic sector, the Nigerian pharmaceutical industry continues to perform below capacity, hampered by a lack of investment and poor infrastructure. The government is committed to making the domestic sector self-sufficient, yet the general picture remains that local producers do not have the technical capability to meet demand for complex drugs. Demand for HIV/AIDS treatment and malaria drugs will remain substantial, with low-cost generic manufacturers in the emerging Asian markets best placed to take advantage.

The government claims that its National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) is on target to provide the President's target of universal health coverage by 2015. However, big questions remain over who will meet the cost of the scheme as it is rolled out to include the informally employed and unemployed sections of the population.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Nigeria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry SWOT

Chapter 2 - Nigeria: Business Environment Ranking

Table: Business Environment Ranking: Middle East & Africa

Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-Term Risk

Politics – Long-Term Risk

Regulatory Barriers

Domestic Sector Threat

Market Growth Potential

Market Size Ranking

Chapter 3 - Market Summary

Chapter 4 - Regulatory Regime

Intellectual Property

Pricing and Reimbursement Issues

Chapter 5 - Industry Developments

Healthcare Sector

Response To Major Disease Threats

Pharmaceutical Sector Developments

Regional Developments

Chapter 6 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Key Growth Factors – Industry

Table: Drug Market Expenditure Forecasts

Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic

Table: Nigeria – Macroeconomic Forecasts

Prescription Market Forecast

Table: Prescription Market Data Forecasts

OTC Market Forecast

Table: OTC Market Data Forecasts

Generics Market Forecast

Table: Generics Market Data Forecasts

Export/Import Market Forecasts

Healthcare Data Forecasts

Table: Nigerian Pharmaceutical Market – Historical Data & Forecasts

Chapter 7 - Competitive Landscape

Overview

Chapter 8 - Company Profiles

Nigeria-German Chemicals PLC (NGC)

Pfizer

Chapter 9 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Pharmaceutical Industry

Sources

Chapter 10 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

The Long View: Data Over The Economic Cycle (2000-2007)

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Chapter 11 - Country Snapshot: Nigeria Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Competitive Landscape for Middle East & Africa Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare: Sample of Companies Ranked

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Cross-border analysis of regulatory systems comparing the patenting environment, summarising regional pricing and reimbursement factors and monitoring the growth of the Pharmaceuticals sector across the region. Company SWOTs cover leading multinational and national drug companies operating in each market.

Network of Middle Eastern and African Pharmaceutical & Healthcare Sources

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BMI's Middle Eastern & African Pharmaceutical & Healthcare Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, pharmaceutical & healthcare industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: