BMI's Executive Summary

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The Sector At A Glance

Key Insights On The Pharmaceutical Sector Of Pakistan

Drug expenditure is growing slowly in Pakistan and should reach US$1.82bn in 2010, with per capita spending expected to be only just over US$10 by 2010. However, BMI’s recently released Pakistan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare report recognises that the domestic drug sector is still striving to modernise. The country has around 400 licensed pharmaceutical companies including 30 multinationals. Foreign drug-makers account for the majority of the drug market in value terms, with a 53% share, although domestic companies are dominant in volume terms.

Despite having a large population, Pakistan’s share of the global pharmaceutical market remains relatively low. Meanwhile, the small-scale nature of the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector and the fact that production consists mainly of basic medicines has meant that Pakistani drug exports are relatively minimal. However, the government is attempting to encourage this sector by offering incentives to local exporters and supporting the improvement of domestic production standards. Entrance to the WTO will also help drug exporters by opening up markets across the globe.

BMI’s adjusted Business Environment Rankings for Asia reveal that Pakistan’s position is unchanged in 14th place. This is primarily due to the country’s poor regulatory system, which we rate as one of the worst in the region. The government does seem to be making some efforts to improve this situation and has recently increased the number of courts dealing with counterfeit drugs from nine to 20. It is hoped that efforts to battle fake and substandard products will boost foreign investor confidence and stimulate local production. The country’s long term political risk rating has improved slightly, compared to the previous quarter. Pakistan’s alliance with the US is helping to turn sentiment in the international community from hostility to active support. Meanwhile, the US itself is providing billions of dollars in aid and debt forgiveness.

Pakistan is going ahead with plans to implement a new autonomous drug authority. The organisation’s main function will be to help streamline the registration process for pharmaceuticals and healthcare ensuring the quality of all medicines. Pakistan has severe problems with counterfeit drugs and the World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that between 40-50% of drugs in the market are fake or substandard.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Pakistan Pharmaceutical Industry SWOT

Pakistan Economic SWOT

Chapter 2 - Pakistan: Business Environment Ranking

Business Environment Ranking

Business Environment Ranking

Economics – Long-Term Risk

Politics – Long-Term Risk

Regulatory Barriers

Domestic Sector Threat

Market Growth Potential

Market Size Ranking

Chapter 3 - Pakistan: Market Summary

Chapter 4 - Regulatory Regime

Intellectual Property Issues

Pricing And Reimbursement Developments

Other Regulatory Issues

Foreign Trade Developments

Chapter 5 - Industry Trends And Developments

Domestic Industry

Multinational Sector

Chapter 6 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Overall Market Forecast

Table: Pakistan Drug Market Forecast Indicators

Key Growth Factors – Industry

Table: Pakistan Health Expenditure Indicators

Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic

Table: GDP And Population

Prescription Market Forecast

Table: Pakistan Prescription Drugs Market Forecast Indicators

OTC Market Forecast

Table: Pakistan OTC Drugs Market Forecast Indicators

Generics And Branded Market Forecasts

Table: Pakistan Generic Drugs Market Forecast Indicators

Export/Import Forecasts

Table: Pakistan Trade Data And Trends

Other Healthcare Data Forecasts

Table: Other Healthcare Data Trends

Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Chapter 7 - Country Snapshot: Pakistan Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Demographic Indicators (2005)

Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education And Healthcare

Education

Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Employment Indicators

Consumption And Stratification

Wages Per Annum

Chapter 8 - Competitive Landscape

Overview

Profiles: Leading Multinational Manufacturers

GlaxoSmithKline

Pfizer

Abbott Laboratories

Novartis

Sanofi-Aventis

Merck & Co

Wyeth

Profiles: Domestic Manufacturers

Hilton Pharma

Efroze

Ferozsons Laboratories

Chapter 9 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Pharmaceutical Industry

Sources

Chapter 10 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Manufacturing Wages (ave per annum), US$

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for Asia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare: Sample of Companies Ranked

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Cross-border analysis of regulatory systems comparing the patenting environment, summarising regional pricing and reimbursement factors and monitoring the growth of the Pharmaceuticals sector across the region. Company SWOTs cover leading multinational and national drug companies operating in each market.

Network of Asian Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Sources

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BMI's Asian Pharmaceuticals Healthcare Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, pharmaceuticals & healthcare industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: