BMI's Executive Summary

[TOP]

Peru's pharmaceutical market remains small in relative terms – standing at an estimated US$666mn in 2007. Per capita drug expenditure is just US$23.1 due to a preference for cheap, non-equivalent branded generics called 'similares'. The market is forecast to reach US$850mn by 2012, representing a CAGR of just 5%. We expect the generics market in particular to exhibit strong growth as the implementation of a free trade agreement (FTA) with the US leads to a tougher stance on similares that should push patients towards legitimate generics.

In December 2007, the Peru-US free trade agreement was finally signed by US President George Bush and Peruvian President Alan García following its ratification by the US Congress in the previous month. Although the wording of the intellectual property (IP) right provisions in the bill were watered-down under pressure from the Democrat-controlled US Congress, the agreement should still allow the vast majority of US exports duty-free access to Peru. Consequently, it is the US generics industry that has made the most positive noises concerning the bill. Overall trade between the two countries reached US$9bn in 2006.

For Q108, BMI has overhauled its Business Environment Ratings methodology. Under the new system, Peru is ranked last in the Americas regions on 39 points, just one point behind Venezuela. The small size of the drug market and unspectacular growth forecast serve to limit the potential returns. However, in terms of risk, the market is mid-ranking in the region due to an improving regulatory environment and stable political and economic environment.

The government's 2008 budget, published in August, pledges a 28% increase in overall investment, with social services seeing steep rises. Higher tax revenues and a booming economy should allow continuing record budget surpluses. This should help García push forward increased coverage under the unified and strengthened Seguro Integral de Salud (SIS) health insurance system. The key will be ensuring those newly enrolled in the scheme can actually access health services and obtain basic medicine. Opposition parties are questioning the view that García handled the August 2007 earthquake and resulting health crisis admirably, citing HIV-infected blood transfusions and irregular health purchases that could see citizens returning to street protests.

Contents

[TOP]

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Peru: Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry SWOT

Peru Political SWOT Analysis

Peru Economic SWOT Analysis

Peru Business Environment SWOT Analysis

Peru Business Environment SWOT Analysis

Chapter 2 - Peru: Business Environment Ranking

Business Environment Ranking

Economics - Long-Term Risk

Politics - Long-Term Risk

Regulatory Barriers

Domestic Sector Threat

Market Growth Potential

Market Size Ranking

Chapter 3 - Peru: Market Summary

Chapter 4 - Regulatory Regime

Intellectual Property Regime

Pricing & Reimbursement Issues

Other Regulatory Issues

Industry Developments

Healthcare Sector

Pharmaceutical Sector

Chapter 5 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Overall Market Forecast

Table: Peru Drug Market Indicators

Key Growth Factors - Industry

Table: Health Expenditure Indicators

Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic

Table: Economic Activity Indicators

Prescription Market Forecast

Table: Prescription Market Indicators

OTC Market Forecast

Table: OTC Market Indicators

Generics Market Forecast

Table: Generic Market Indicators

Export/Import Forecasts

Table: Import/Export Trends

Other Healthcare Data Forecasts

Table: Other Healthcare Data Forecasts

Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario

Chapter 6 - Competitive Landscape

Table: Indigenous Peruvian Pharmaceutical Companies That Acquired GMP Accreditation in 2006

Profiles: Leading Multinationals

Sanofi-Aventis

Merck & Co

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)

Novartis

Pfizer

Chapter 7 - Company Monitor

Indigenous Manufacturer Profiles

Farmaindustria

Unimed

Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Technical Process

Pharmaceutical Industry

Sources

Chapter 9 - Latin America: Regional Market Overview

Chapter 10 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Wages (ave per annum), US$

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Chapter 11 - Country Snapshot: Colombia Demographic Data

Section 1: Population

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption And Stratification

Table: Wages Per Year

Competitive Landscape for Latin America Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare: Sample of Companies Ranked

[TOP]

Cross-border analysis of regulatory systems comparing the patenting environment, summarising regional pricing and reimbursement factors and monitoring the growth of the Pharmaceuticals sector across the region. Company SWOTs cover leading multinational and national drug companies operating in each market.

Network of Latin American Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Sources

[TOP]

BMI's Latin American Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, pharmaceuticals industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: