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BMI's Executive Summary[TOP] Ukraine's pharmaceutical market continued to grow at one of the fastest rates in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2007, with BMI estimating the total market grew 22% year-on-year (y-o-y) to reach a value of US$2.40bn, following a 24% increase in 2006. BMI's updated forecast for the period 2007 to 2012 sees average annual growth of 8.3%. This forecast is based on the assumption that Ukraine's economy will muddle through continued political instability and such pressures as rising energy prices and maintain a respectable 5.5% annual average GDP growth rate. As underlined by BMI's Business Environment Rankings, however, the general level of risk remains among the highest in the CEE region. In terms of country and market risk, Ukraine ranks last among 15 countries in Emerging Europe, despite robust growth. This growth has been almost wholly driven by the retail market and out-of-pocket spending by consumers. The upside to this is a lack of price controls, with the clear downside being the absence of effective regulation and reimbursement. From a market value perspective, this limits the purchase of higher value, patented medicines to all but the wealthiest segment of the population. A major audit of state medicines tenders undertaken in 2007 showed a litany of irregularities, highlighting the mix of poor governance and corruption pervading the state healthcare system. Indeed, the healthcare system remains in a state of drift. Out-of-term parliamentary elections at the end of September had yet to yield a new government as of mid-December as President Viktor Yushchenko's nominee, Yulia Tymoshenko, had yet to be approved by the narrowly divided Rada (parliament). Tymoshenko is backed by the reconstructed Orange Coalition and represents the nominal liberal wing in Ukraine's fractured political landscape. Assuming she is able to form a government, there is some hope that her party's election pledge to introduce a medicines reimbursement system and mandatory insurancebased system could gain traction in 2008. Such moves are badly needed. But it will be many months before any serious reforms could see the light of day and this optimistically assumes a level of cooperation between parties and the cooperation of regional leaders. A lack of regulatory controls and a poorly-functioning judiciary also leave many otherwise well-run local companies at risk of rival business groups using lawsuits and other mechanisms to try and wrest assets or control over whole companies. Leading producers Darnytsa and Borshchagovsky claimed to have fended off such attacks from local groups during 2007, prompting an extraordinary show of frustration and solidarity by major producers, who halted production briefly in protest in October. More positively, Bulgaria's Sopharma inked a deal to acquire producer Vitaminy for US$5.3mn. Turkish generics producer Deva opened a representative office in Kyiv in Q407. Still, for regional and multinational players, the market remained a source of robust growth in 2007, but the perilous risk environment has meant another year has passed without any major investments in local production facilities – signalling continued worries about the market's long-term prospects. |
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Contents[TOP] Chapter 1 - Executive SummaryUkraine Pharmaceuticals Industry SWOT Chapter 2 - Ukraine: Business Environment RankingBusiness Environment Ranking Economics - Long-term Risk Politics - Long-term Risk Regulatory Barriers Domestic-Sector Threat Market Growth Potential Market Size Ranking Chapter 3 - Market SummaryChapter 4 - Regulatory RegimeIntellectual Property Issues Pricing & Reimbursement Issues Other Market Entry Barriers Chapter 5 - Industry DevelopmentsChapter 6 - Industry Forecast ScenarioOverall Market Forecast Table: Drug Market Indicators Key Growth Factors - Industry Table: Health Expenditure Indicators Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic Table: Ukraine: Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts OTC Market Forecast Table: OTC Market Indicators Prescription Market Forecast Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators Generics Market Forecast Table: Generic Market Indicators Export/Import Forecasts Table: Import/Export Forecasts Other Healthcare Data Forecasts Table: Healthcare Data Chapter 7 - Competitive LandscapeManufacturing Sector Wholesale Retail Table: Pharmacies & Pharmacy Market Ratios Chapter 8 - Company MonitorArterium Gedeon Richter Krka Lek (Novartis/Sandoz) Chapter 9 - BMI Forecast ModellingHow We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Pharmaceutical Industry Sources Chapter 10 - Appendix: Regional Demographic DataWages (ave labour force per annum), US$ PPP Population Household Spending Per Capita, US$ Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP Market Size, GDP, US$bn Chapter 11 - Country Snapshot: Ukraine Demographic DataSection 1: Population: Table: Demographic Indicators (2005) Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown Section 2: Education & Healthcare Table: Education Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics Table: Healthcare: Expenditure Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power Table: Employment Indicators Table: Consumption and Stratification Table: Wages per year
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Competitive Landscape for Europe Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare: Sample of Companies Ranked[TOP] Cross-border analysis of regulatory systems comparing the patenting environment, summarising regional pricing and reimbursement factors and monitoring the growth of the Pharmaceuticals sector across the region. Company SWOTs cover leading multinational and national drug companies operating in each market.
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Network of European Pharmaceutical & Healthcare Sources[TOP] BMI's Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, pharmaceutical & healthcare industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:
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