http://www.asia-monitor.com Asia Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2012, Business Monitor International Ltd Fri, 03 Feb 2012 06:30 GMT Fri, 03 Feb 2012 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator Remittance growth jumped from -9.0% y-o-y in November to 18.4% in December, with the monthly inflow hitting a record high of US$1,147.2mn in the last month of 2011. The total amount of remittances in the first half of the current fiscal year (FY2011/12, July-June) stands at US$6.1bn, marking a 9.3% increase from the US$5.6bn recorded in the first half of FY2010/11. The latest figure poses downside risk on our forecast for net transfers to increase by 10.6% this fiscal year to US$13.4bn. That said, we note that the ongoing strength of manpower exports should keep remittance inflows well supported. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/108703/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Bangladesh.html Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT Businesses across the country have expressed concern over the deteriorating law and order situation in the capital city of Bangladesh - Dhaka - as 18 cases of murder, five jewellery heists, and several incidents of mugging were recorded in January. However, the Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP) has dismissed these concerns, stating that Dhaka's situation only 'fluctuated' during the month. DMP Additional Police Commissioner Abdul Jalil Mandol told The Financial Express that criminal activity normally increases during the winter season and that the police have stepped up their efforts accordingly. Should the situation deteriorate even further, it would certainly put added pressure on the Awami League-led government. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/108702/Bangladesh.html Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT Headline inflation hit a 26-month low of 3.8% y-o-y in January, falling sharply from 4.9% in the previous month. Meanwhile, core inflation remained unchanged at 4.7% y-o-y. The current spate of disinflation continues to be on the back of falling food inflation, which hit -0.2% y-o-y in January, down from its peak in April 2011 of 14.3%. Indeed, non-food inflation saw an increase in the beginning of the year, with the figure rising from 7.0% y-o-y in December to 7.4%. The latest data poses downside risk on our 2012 year end consumer price inflation forecast of 4.1%. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/108701/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Sri-Lanka.html Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00 GMT BMI View: India is increasing its involvement in Afghanistan in preparation for the departure of most foreign combat troops at the end of 2014. New Delhi's main interest is to undermine the influence of its arch-rival Pakistan, but it will also seek to counterbalance the role of China. Nonetheless, India will struggle to achieve its objectives, especially since it does not plan to deploy ground troops. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/108650/India-Eyes-Expanded-Involvement-Post-2014.html Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT BMI View: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's exiled elder half-brother Kim Jong Nam has made comments highly critical of the younger Kim and the system over which he presides. This has led to speculation that Kim Jong Nam is either positioning himself as a rival to Kim Jong Un, or seeking to force the issue of reform. Nonetheless, there is little that Kim Jong Nam can do from exile, unless the Pyongyang regime collapses. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/108451/Kim-Jong-Nam-Pushing-Himself-As-Reformist-Figure.html Tue, 24 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Tourist arrivals into Cambodia nosedived 23.6% y-o-y in November, in a clear sign that the devastating floods seen in Thailand and Cambodia in H112 have had a deleterious impact on economic activity. With this in mind, Q411 real GDP data is likely to disappoint, and we continue to expect below-par headline expansion of 4.8% in 2012. This stands significantly below the government's own forecast of 7.0% and the IMF's 7.3% projection. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/108229/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Cambodia.html Mon, 09 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Anecdotal evidence suggests there is a growing tendency among China's elite to shift their assets overseas as the economy faces the potential for a recession and political tensions rise. Findings from the 2011 Hurun Rich List support this trend, which threatens to act as a major drag on the country's foreign reserves, potentially overwhelming the central bank's efforts to maintain currency stability. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/108228/Wealth-Drain-To-Intensify.html Tue, 20 Dec 2011 00:00 GMT We expect to see all measures of Chinese inflation receed in 2012, continuing the trend exhibited in H211. This should allow the People's Bank of China (PBoC) to cut interest rates twice, most likely in H112. We see CPI averaging 3.2% in 2012, from 5.5% in 2011, with outright deflation a serious possibility. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/108227/More-Disinflation-To-Trigger-Rate-Cuts-In-2012.html Thu, 05 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT We have long-warned that expectations of yuan appreciation are not fundamentally supported, and back in October, we called for the yuan to be re-pegged to the US dollar as the economy slowed. We have also held a bearish stance on the non-deliverable forward market, and this view is playing out nicely. We are now growing increasingly cautious of a devaluation in the spot rate in 2012, or at least a weakening trend, should domestic and external conditions deteriorate substantially. We favour the prospects for the Indian rupee in 2012. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/108226/CNY-Devaluation-Risks-Highest-In-Decades.html Wed, 14 Dec 2011 00:00 GMT BMI View: Cooling money supply growth and softer global commodity prices point to a more benign trend in Cambodia's headline rate of inflation in 2012. We are forecasting average inflation of 3.0% in 2012, down from a projected 5.5% in 2011, with the risks weighted to the downside should we see a collapse in demand for Cambodian exports. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/108225/No-Inflation-Threat-In-2012.html Thu, 22 Dec 2011 00:00 GMT Thailand's trade exports contracted by 12.5% y-o-y in November, compared to an expansion of 21.5% y-o-y in October. Meanwhile, imports also contracted by 2.4% y-o-y in November. Although we are expecting a rebound in trade as the floods begin to recede, we believe that a deteriorating outlook on external demand will keep export growth subdued over the coming months. This suggests that Thailand's trade surplus will continue to narrow in 2012. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/107977/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Thailand.html Mon, 09 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT The opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP) has proposed new measures aimed at addressing corruption. Some of the key measures include a ban on political parties' involvement in businesses and the adoption of an open tender system for government contracts. DAP Secretary General Lim Guan Eng said that economic losses due to corruption are close to estimates published by Washington-based financial watchdog Global Financial Integrity (GFI) at MYR1.1bn (US$0.3bn) annually. We believe that the move will put further pressure on the ruling Barisan Nasional to speed up efforts to tackle http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/107978/Malaysia.html Mon, 09 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Thailand's trade exports contracted by 12.5% y-o-y in November, compared to an expansion of 21.5% y-o-y in October. Meanwhile, imports also contracted by 2.4% y-o-y in November. Although we are expecting a rebound in trade as the floods begin to recede, we believe that a deteriorating outlook on external demand will keep export growth subdued over the coming months. This suggests that Thailand's trade surplus will continue to narrow in 2012. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/107975/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Thailand.html Mon, 09 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Malaysia's headline consumer price inflation (CPI) slowed from 3.4% y-o-y in October to 3.3% in November and we expect inflationary pressures to continue to cool over the coming months. Commodity prices have remained on a downward trend since early 2011. In line with our commodities team's view that commodity prices will see further declines, we expect cost-push inflationary pressures to ease as we head into 2012. Meanwhile, M3 money supply growth also slowed from 12.5% y-o-y in September to 11.4% in October, in line with our view that inflationary pressures are becoming a secondary concern for the central bank. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/107976/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Malaysia.html Mon, 09 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) has introduced plans for a comprehensive review of public investment projects in 2012. According to a statement released by the MPI, the review will focus on the management of the state budget. The move is widely seen as part of the government's effort to clamp down on corruption at the provincial level and among state-owned enterprises (SOE). We are positive that these initiatives will help to deter corruption and help ease growing public dissent against the government. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/107974/Vietnam.html Mon, 09 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT