http://www.asia-monitor.com Asia Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2010, Business Monitor International Ltd Thu, 04 Mar 2010 06:30 GMT Thu, 04 Mar 2010 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator We maintain our real GDP growth forecast of 5.4% in 2010 after an estimated 3.3% economic expansion in 2009 on the back of expectations of higher government and private consumption. With infrastructure and other investment projects requiring capital goods from overseas and the Sri Lankan textile sector, which makes up 40-45% of total export, expected to face stiff competition from more efficient competitors in China and Southeast Asia, we foresee import growth continuing to outpace export growth in 2011 and 2012 before dropping in 2013 as the need for capital imports decreases. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/86703/Sri-Lanka.html Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT Myanmar's Supreme Court on February 26 rejected an appeal from pro-democracy leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi against the 18-month extension of her house arrest in August last year. The extension will end in November 2010, indicating that elections scheduled for this year will be held before this date. We expect power to remain with the military following the elections, but that small steps towards an increased degree of political freedom may be taken. A reduction in political repression could prompt an easing of US sanctions. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/86701/Suu-Kyi-Appeal-Rejected.html Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT Sajeeb Wajed Joy, the son of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed, has joined the ruling Awami League during a visit to Bangladesh from his domicile in the US, sparking anticipation that he will be groomed as the political heir of his mother. During the rule of a military-backed interim government in 2007 and 2008, Joy campaigned in the US and Europe for the release of his mother, who was jailed in Bangladesh on charges of corruption. We find it highly likely that Joy will enter into politics, but that he is unlikely to play a material role in policymaking in http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/86702/PMs-Son-Enters-Politics.html Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT The opposition Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna and the United National Party have decided to contest the April 8 parliamentary elections independently after their joint candidate Sarath Fonseka lost the January 26 presidential elections by a landslide 1.8 million votes to incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa. We expect the ruling United People Freedom Alliance to win the parliamentary polls and thus consolidate the wider Rajapaksa family's control of political power. The president's 23-year-old son Namal is a candidate for the Sri Lanka Freedom Party in the parliamentary polls. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/86700/Opposition-Split.html Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT Despite the fanfare which preceded the FY2010/11 (April-March) budget delivery in February, the government's actual fiscal deficit projections are little changed (with the central deficit projected to come in at 5.5% and 4.6% of GDP in FY2010/11 and FY2011/12, respectively). We continue to forecast nominal central government shortfalls of 5.6% and 5.2% of GDP in FY2010/11 and FY2011/12. Moreover, we see India's public debt load falling only marginally from 79.2% of GDP in FY2009/10 to 76.2% of GDP by FY2011/12. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/86699/Macroeconomic-Forecast-India.html Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung attended the initiation of a the construction of an aluminium refinery plant in the central highland province of Dak Nong on February 28 only weeks after two popular websites criticising the projects were blocked. Relations with China, which ruled Vietnam for more than a thousand years, remains among the most contentious subjects in Vietnam and the construction of another Chinese-financed aluminium plant in neighbouring Lam Dong caused widespread protests in 2008 and 2009. We believe that protests against the new plant will strain relations between Beijing and Hanoi in http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/86698/Mining-Project-Brings-Risks.html Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT Highlighting the rapid rebound seen in Taiwan's economy through H209 was December's industrial production figure - which came in up 47.3% y-o-y following a 31.5% y-o-y gain notched up in November. While the y-o-y surge is to a large extent due to base effects (industrial production fell 32.0% y-o-y in December 2008), the underlying trend lends support to our outlook for the Taiwanese economy in 2010. Indeed, on the back of improved economic conditions domestically and internationally, we forecast 2010 real GDP growth at 4.6% - up from an estimated -2.8% in 2009. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/86018/Industrial-Production-Surges.html Mon, 08 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT BMI View Taiwan's foreign exchange reserves hit a record US$350.7bn at the end of January, up US$2.5bn from the previous month. Despite having a population of only 23mn, Taiwan maintains the fourth-largest foreign exchange reserves in the world (behind China, Japan and Russia). We forecast that the Taiwanese authorities will continue accumulating reserves over the coming months, as they continue intervening in foreign exchange markets to hold down the value of the TWD in order to support the trade account. We see Taiwan's reserves growing 17.8% to US$380.0bn over the course of 2010. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/86017/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Taiwan.html Mon, 08 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT Adding to President Asif Ali Zardari's woes, a February 3 bomb blast killed three US soldiers in the Lower Dir region of Pakistan. The blast also killed three children and wounded more than 100. The Pakistani government has repeatedly denied that it cooperates with US forces, and regularly denounces US drone attacks within the country. However, many suspect that the Pakistani government is actually complicit in these unpopular operations. The development that the US troops were training Pakistan's paramilitary Frontier Corps will undoubtedly hurt the government, particularly the country's already vulnerable president. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/85976/US-Soldiers-Killed-In-Blast.html Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT Thailand's supreme court will give its verdict on whether authorities can seize former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's frozen assets on February 26. Sekesan Bangsomboon, director general of the department of special litigation, said the court has given 30 days for prosecution and defence lawyers to submit their closing statements. Thaksin was ousted in a military coup in 2006, after which a committee set up by the military junta froze his assets, valued at US$2.2bn. We believe that political instability will increase in the run up to the verdict as Thaksin supporters come into force. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/85974/Ratings-Update--Thailand.html Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT Forecast http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/85975/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Malaysia.html Wed, 04 Feb 2009 00:00 GMT China's real GDP growth came in at 10.7% y-o-y in Q409, the fastest pace since Q407, as fixed investment continued to boom and consumer spending growth accelerated. These factors made up for the negative contribution of net exports. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/85973/Macroeconomic-Forecast-China.html Fri, 05 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT BMI View: South Korea's record breaking US$42.7bn current account surplus in 2009 helped its economy bounce back from the jaws of recession. While we expect further export gains for South Korea through 2010, we do not foresee a repeat of 2009's record-breaking current account surplus. Instead, we expect a more rapid increase in imports relative to exports in 2010, bringing the country's current account down to 3.2% of GDP, from 4.6% in 2009. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/85972/Macroeconomic-Forecast-South-Korea.html Fri, 05 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT The Malaysian government arrested 10 people - nine of which are foreigners - under the Internal Security Act, which allows indefinite detention without trial, on January 27. Home Minister Hishammuddin Hussein revealed that the detainees are suspected to have links with international terrorist groups and that action needed be taken to safeguard the security of the country. Given the rule of law, we are sanguine on the political security of the country, which a relatively high rating of 83.3 in BMI's Security Rating - a sub-component of our Short Term Political Risk Rating. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/85971/ISA-Arrests-For-10.html Wed, 04 Feb 2009 00:00 GMT We have bumped up our average consumer price inflation forecast for Hong Kong for 2010 to 2.5% from 1.8% previously, but we are comfortable sticking to our below-consensus end-year target of 1.8%. CPI came in at 1.3% y-o-y in December, and while base effects should mean annual CPI my rise over the coming months, falling money supply growth and declining asset prices will see price pressures decline in H210. http://www.asia-monitor.com/file/85970/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Hong-Kong.html Fri, 05 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT